S9 - 1 February 2002: A Century’s Winter

S : Winter of 100 Years (Cont) A harsh and premature winter has settled into the Balkans. Temperatures were already 8 to 10 degrees below normal in early November, with no relief in sight. Your country is plagued by a serious power shortage, as are all countries in the region. Fuel oil is scarce and expensive. Older heating systems are in danger of failing. Transportation is grinding to a halt due to high oil prices and prohibitive conditions. External suppliers facing cold themselves may reduce deliveries to Balkan states. Prospects for food and goods distribution are bleak.

S : Winter of 100 Years (Cont) The continued cold has contributed to a breakdown in communications, particularly affecting telephone systems. Farmers fear a collapse in the livestock base. Many already have begun killing their animals due to a lack of fodder. Thousands more have died from the extreme cold. It is estimated that already 2,500 deaths can be attributed to this cold stretch, and weather forecasts are calling for continued cold and two major snow storms in the coming weeks. Temperatures are expected to remain below 0 degrees Celsius with very high winds for the foreseeable future.

S : Winter of 100 Years (Cont) The press is sensationalizing the situation and is focused on the persistently harsh weather conditions. External sympathy has been considerable, but actual assistance to the region has thus far been quite limited. Isolated pockets of demonstrations and protests are appearing. On 9 February, late in the afternoon, Moldovan and regional meteorologists report an unexpected convergence of two weather fronts, predicting a major snowstorm with a potential accumulation of 50 centimeters. In their view, this will be followed by a dramatic drop in temperature to 25 degrees below zero.