History of European integration 1950 - European Payments Union 1951 - European Coal and Steel Community 1957 - Treaty of Rome 1970s & 1980s - Expansion.

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Presentation transcript:

History of European integration European Payments Union European Coal and Steel Community Treaty of Rome 1970s & 1980s - Expansion of EU Single European Act Maastricht Treaty EMU

Two dimensions Political -Council of Ministers as decision making body -European law -European Parliament (directly elected since 1979) Economic -Eliminate internal customs duties and quotas -Common external trade policy -Creation of single market

GDP growth

Unemployment

No New Economy in Europe Productivity growth

EMU: What happened? January 1, 1999 (Stage IIIA) –Formal launch of euro –ECB takes over monetary policy January 1, 2002 (Stage IIIB) –Introduction of euro notes & coins

EMU Profound change in international monetary relations –Between the countries of Europe –Between Europe and the rest of the world Model for what we will see in the 21st century?

Why does it matter for Europe? Fundamental change in monetary policy ECB independent Mandate for price stability Significance of currency as symbol of sovereignty Move towards “super state”

The euro

The €1 coin

The €5 note (front)

The €5 note (rear)

The €10 note (front)

The €10 note (rear)

The €50 note (front)

The €50 note (rear)

The €100 note (front)

The €100 note (rear)

The €200 note (front)

The €200 note (rear)

The €500 note (front)

Institutions European Central Bank European CommissionEuropean Parliament Council of Ministers

Policy making institutions 6 Executive Board Members of the ECB Governing Council of the ECB 12 National Central Bank Governors Monetary policy for euro area

Strategy & accountability Twin pillars of ECB monetary policy strategy –Broad based assessment of outlook for price stability –Reference value for money growth Quantitative definition of price stability –2% inflation or less

Three facets of EMU Creation of European “super state” Deepening and strengthening the single market Monetary stability through new institutions

Why does it matter for the US? Europe is our most important trading partner Europe is the most important source of investment in the US The euro as a competitor with the dollar

Destination of US exports

Source of US imports

Source of US FDI

Destination of US FDI

The euro as a competitor with the dollar US dollar dominant in international transactions –size and global reach of US –stability of purchasing power Benefit to US: seigniorage revenue Challenge from high-denomination euro notes?

A model for the future? National central banks an expensive luxury? The debate over dollarization Monetary union as an alternative?

Dollar-euro exchange rate $ per Launch of EMU $ per ECU prior to 1999

EU expansion Euro area Other EU Candidate countries Candidate countries not shown: Malta and Cyprus

The demographic timebomb

Will the euro displace the dollar? Dollar currently the primary international currency Euro has potential to match and even displace the dollar But...

Will the euro displace the dollar? Difficult to dislodge established currency Thirty years for dollar to displace sterling Would it matter?