Exploring the U.S.-Afghanistan Conflict

Afghanistan (Economics) GDP (2009 est., purchasing power parity): $27 billion. GDP growth: 22.5% ( ); 11% ( ). GDP per capita (2009 est.): $800. Natural resources: Natural gas, oil, coal, petroleum, copper, chromite, talc, barites, sulfur, lead, zinc, iron ore, salt, precious and semiprecious stones. Agriculture (estimated 31% of GDP): Products--wheat, opium, sheepskins, lambskins, corn, barley, rice, cotton, fruit, nuts, karakul pelts, wool, and mutton. Industry (estimated 26% of GDP): Types--small-scale production of textiles, soap, furniture, shoes, fertilizer, cement; hand-woven carpets; natural gas, coal, and copper. Services (estimated 43% of GDP): Transport, retail, and telecommunications. Trade (2009 est.): Exports--$547 million (does not include opium): fruits and nuts, hand-woven carpets, wool, cotton, hides and pelts, precious and semiprecious gems. Major markets--Central Asian republics, United States, Russia, Pakistan, India. Imports-- $5.3 billion: food, petroleum products, textiles, machinery, and consumer goods. Major suppliers--Central Asian republics, Pakistan, United States, India, Germany.

Afghanistan (Economics) Is a very poor country. Nearly 40% of the population is unemployed. Soviet economics and the civil war have destroyed the Afghani economy 85% are dependent on agriculture. Most farmers produce poppy and are involved in the drug trade. Tribal leaders and local elites have a control over business activity. There are few chances for social mobility. Taliban have recruited and paid the poor for services

Afghanistan (Organizations) In rural areas, tribal leaders control and influence important commercial, governmental, and religious organizations. Afghanistan government: is under control of Hamid Kazari and his cronies. The Kazari government is corrupt and only has substantial influence in Kabul. Laws: Sharia Law has been done away with; the Kazari government has passed legislation supporting opium farmers; and most laws passed by the Kazari administration go no- where outside of Kabul. Afghanistan is an Islamist nation which adheres to the Sunni sect.

Afghanistan (Beliefs) 90% of Afghans follow a Sunni sect. 9% follow the Shiite ideology. Traditional conservatives and extremists support re-implementing Sharia law and making Islamic fundamentalism a main pillar in Afghani society. For Afghans, Islam represents a potentially unifying symbolic system which offsets the divisiveness that frequently rises from the existence of a deep pride in tribal loyalties and an abounding sense of personal and family honor found in multitribal and multiethnic societies such as Afghanistan. Mosques serve not only as places of worship, but for a multitude of functions, including shelter for guests, places to meet and converse, the focus of social religious festivities and schools. Almost every Afghan has at one time during his youth studied at a mosque school; for some this is the only formal education they receive.

Pre Context and Pre History… 1989: Soviet Withdrawal : U.S. supports anti-communist efforts Osama Bin Laden is drawn to Afghanistan to fight a holy war against a secular state. He hopes to instill Sharia law in Arab nations, making them true Islamist states 1992: The communist government falls to Mujahedeen forces.

Civil War Is between warring ethnic and tribal leaders The Taliban wants to establish a religious state based upon sharia law. They gain the support of the government of Pakistan (they prove to be the most capable at running a stable government) Ahmed Shah Massoud, an anti-taliban leader, is pushed out Kabul in sept 1996 and forced to fight in the northern providences Iran and Russia provide Massoud with supplies. Russia is sympathetic to anti Islamic terrorist efforts (Chechnya). Iran opposes the Taliban’s treatment of Afganistan’s Shiite minority the Hazaris Saudi Arabia recognizes the Taliban government and Pakistani forces aid Taliban forces in key victories.

Taliban Government Sharia Law is imposed. There are no more poolside girls. 1997: Mazar-i-Sharif, a stronghold of Shiite people, is taken by the Taliban. The local Shiite ethnic group, the Hazaris, counter attacks and kills 3000 Taliban fighters. 1998: The Taliban responds and massacres 2000 Hazaris. Several Iranian diplomats, civilians, and journalist are killed. This sparks Iran to move 250,000 troops to the boarder and increase aid to Northern Alliance leaders. 1998: The U.S. responds to embassy bombings in Africa by directing cruise missile strikes on Al-Qaida training compounds in Afghanistan. Sept : Ahmad Shad Massouh is assassinated by the Taliban/Al-Qaida Sept : Al-Qaida attacks the U.S.

Afghanistan War Begins on Oct with air strikes on Taliban targets Two main goals: Destroy Al-Qaida cells in Afghanistan and promote democracy in Afghanistan Bush Doctrine: Nation building, smoke em’ out, your either with us or against us : Bush administration uses Northern Alliance militias to fight Taliban and Al-Qaida forces. At the battle of Tora Bora, Osama Bin Laden and other leaders of the Taliban and Al-Qaida escape. The boarder region between Afghanistan and Pakistan becomes the Taliban stronghold.

Afghanistan War Continued 2002: An interim government is established. Harmid Kazir is elected president. The Taliban, using the Pakistani-Afghanistan border, regroup and plan a guerilla warfare offensive. IED’s, rocket launchers, and other long range assault weapons are used by Taliban forces in ambush attempts against Afghan and U.S. convoys, military outposts, and police officials in rural Southern Afghanistan. NATO is assigned control of southern Afghanistan in 2006 and causalities ensue. NATO is largely successful but the Taliban is not defeated.

Afghanistan War continued 2007: Bush administration sends 3500 more troops. Drone strikes and secret operations cross into Pakistan. Relations sour NATO goes on the offensive and wins decisive battles (the battle of Chora). Afghan forces are used as the primary fighting force in many battles including the battle of Musa Qala. 2008: Violence erupts and is the deadliest year of the war since the war’s conception. Taliban free 1200 (400 POWs) from a prison, the 100 th British soldier is killed, and according to Mike Mullen, “I’m not convinced we’re winning it in Afghanistan.”

Reassessing the War The Bush administration in the last months of 08—”doubles the size of the Afghan Army, restructures the American military command, puts more intelligence analysts on the ground to help hunt down militants” Bush’s critics: Nation building is impossible when resources are diverted to Iraq The Obama Doctrine: Lead from behind and encourage allies to take command. Off-shore intervention. Originally set as June 2011, U.S. troops are too leave Afghanistan by 2014.

The Obama Doctrine continued Seeks to recommitted diverted resources back to Afghanistan. Spring 2009: A new policy is announced. 17,000 more troops are deployed and an additional 4000 are sent to train Afghanistan forces. Also, the administration promises a recommitment to Afghanistan’s and Pakistan’s futures by increasing economic aid and U.S. civilian presence in both countries. Afghan troop and police force numbers are expanded to be 134,000 and 84,000 (respectively) by By the end of 2009, there 68,000 U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan (30,000 more than in 08)

Obama Doctrine conclusion Seeks to lead from behind and encourage allies to take charge. Gives up on the notion of nation-building. Diverts resources from Iraq back into Afghanistan. Increased U.S. presence with 90,000 soldiers currently serving in Afghanistan. (30,000 U.S. soldiers are suppose to be out by July 2012). Uses naval and air power felicitate drone strikes and special ops missions against opposition forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan. High-level leaders of terrorist organizations are targeted (i.e. Osama). Emphasizes the importance of Afghanistan's ability to defend itself by training Afghan police and security forces. Increases the use of U.S. civilian organizations, companies, and advisors. Also, more foreign aid is given to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Does away with the your either with us or against us approach and solicits help from the international community and smaller nations.

Problems in Afghanistan Today Violence is on the rise. 496 soldiers died in this year. Relationship with Pakistan is strained. Corruption is rampant in the Pakistani government, there have been ties found between the Pakistani military and Al Quaid, and Pakistan has its own vested interests in Afghanistan. These include: dismantling the Karzai government and its alliance with India, using the Haqquni terrorist organization as a brokering chip during negotiations over Afghanistan’s future, and preventing the U.S. from dominating the future outcome of Afghanistan.

Problems in Afghanistan Continued The Afghanistan government is corrupt and can’t provide basic services. Hamid Kazari accepts “bags of money” from other sources (including Iran) and is open to negotiating a peace deal with Al-Qaida. Poverty is horrendous and the drug trade dominates the economy. Farmers are dependent on the Poppy trade and resistant to anti- U.S. drug raid efforts. Al-Qaida and other Islamist fundamentalist groups still hold a wide-varying degree of public support and are recruiting those with grievances against the U.S., Karzari, and their economic situation Without U.S. support, what’s stopping the Taliban and Al-Qaida from rebounding and taking over?