Where the action is: searching for sustainability transitions in Asia Frans Berkhout Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)

2 Propositions System innovation emerges out of powerful, underlying forces of change The most powerful economic and social changes (transitions) today are occurring in developing Asia Globalisation is an important contextual feature in shaping Asian (and European) transitions Research on sustainability transitions is most fruitfully conducted in developing Asian contexts

3 Theories of development Endogenous growth theory: key role of knowledge and technological learning leading to rapid improvements in productivity, wealth creation and growth Key role of institutions in ‘catch-up’ Modernisation of traditional industries, structural change in the economy (agric-industrial-services) Urbanisation, demographic change and emergence of consumer markets Tendency to convergence in productivity, economic structure and growth in the long-run: one or many models?

4 Linking growth and environment Source: Shafik and Bandyopadhyay, 1992

5 Sooner, faster and more simultaneously Source: Marcotoullio et al, 2005)

6 System innovation Reconfiguration of production/consumption systems –Long-term (decadal) –Co-evolving technological, institutional, behavioural changes –Multi-level models of socio-technical systems (niches, regimes, landscapes) Emphasis on problem of ‘order’ leading to path dependency in innovation –Options: accelerating the rate of change; reorienting innovation pathways; or creating new innovation paths –Measures: generating variety, creating markets, coordinating selection pressures

7 The scale of Asian development Source: US EIA, 2006

8 Characteristics of Asian development Similarities Investment in human and physical capital Egalitarian income distribution Rapid manufactures export growth Insulated bureaucracy Dissimilarities (S and E Asia) Depedence on natural resources Education and income distributions Role of the state in economic development

9 Globalisation Trade: commodities, technology, knowledge Markets: capital, goods, services Governance: policy learning, international regimes Knowledge and technology: public and private R&D, education and development Migration: labour, culture

10 Indicies of globalisation World Bank, 2002

11 Globalisation and East Asian development High levels of foreign direct investment – not in all countries High levels of merchandize goods exports – ‘climbing the ladder’ of technological capabilities Importance of global production networks as a form of industrial production Constrained international population migration

12 Linking system innovation and globalisation  Globalisation enables transformative change: focus on developing Asia  Globalisation connects transformations in different regions

13 Globalisation enabling change What do developing economy contexts offer system innovation? –Pathways of change are less path-determined –Opportunities for niches are abundant –New regimes are being created –Landscapes are in transition But –Priority is growth –Capacities are weaker: S&T, institutional

14 Globalisation connecting change How are socio-technical transitions in developed economies influenced by their international context? –Key resources are internationally-traded: world prices –Environmentally-relevant sectors are highly-integrated to global production networks and sometimes dominated by (national or international) MNCs –Policy environment: trade, competition, environment is increasingly global But –There is a social demand for growth and sustainability –Capacities are stronger

15 Conclusions The scale and momentum of change: observing transitions Rapid emergence of new socio-technical systems based on systems of innovation (sectoral, national and global) Confronting the convergence hypothesis: not one but many pathways Varieties of development pathway: sustainability experiments A sequence of socio-technical systems: linking to the EKC Current policy attention