Welcome to the IPCC

Outline What is the IPCC? About the SREX About the AR5 Purpose Organization About the SREX About the AR5 Key aspects of the IPCC’s work Significance of the SREX and linkages with the AR5 and broader global environmental change research initiatives

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Formed by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization to conduct assessments of the state of knowledge of climate change, the vulnerabilities to and consequences of any changes, and the options to avoid, prepare for, and respond to changes All governments that signed either the UNEP or WMO convention are members of the IPCC

Co-Chairs WGI: WGII: WGIII: Thomas Stocker (University of Bern) Dahe Qin (China Meteorological Administration) WGII: Vicente Barros (CIMA-FCEN) Christopher Field (Carnegie Institution) WGIII: Ottmar Edenhofer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Ramon Pichs Madruga (CIEM) Youba Sokona (Sahara and Sahel Observatory)

Technical Support Units WGI: Pauline Midgley, Ph.D. Gian-Kasper Plattner, Deputy Head - Science Simon Allen, Project Scientist Melinda Tignor, Deputy Head - Administration WGII: Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH Dave Dokken, Director of Operations Michael Mastrandrea, Scientist Rob Genova, IT Specialist Sandy MacCracken, Administrative Assistant

Role of Governments Governments request the scientific community to conduct comprehensive assessments Governments elect a Bureau to ensure assessments are conducted following the IPCC Rules and Procedures Proposed outlines are discussed and approved line-by-line by the governments in a Plenary Bureau approves the chapter author teams Based on scientific expertise, geography, & gender

Role of Governments (cont’d) Governments participate in the review process and in the IPCC Plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work program are taken and reports are accepted, adopted, and approved Summary for Policymakers approved line-by-line by the governments in a final Plenary

Review: multiple levels Zero-order draft: internal review (consistency, coverage) First-order draft: formal external peer review (including issues of interpretation, missed literature & presentation) Second-order draft: combined external expert and government review Author teams need to provide written response to review comments Review editor(s) (like the editors of a journal) oversee the review process In the AR4 for WG 2, there were over 40,000 comments from 1181 Expert Reviewers, from 92 countries and 41 Governments

Assessment consisting of 9 chapters Technical Summary Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Assessment consisting of 9 chapters Technical Summary Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) Line of sight required from SPM to assessment

SREX 1 = New dimensions in disaster risk 2 = Determinants of risk 3 = Changes in climate extremes 4 = Observed and projected impacts of changes in climate extremes 5 = Managing risks at the local level 6 = Managing risks at the national level 7 = Managing risks at the international level 8 = Sustainable future 9 = Case studies

Provisional Schedule 29 January 2010 3 February - 5 March 2010 0-order drafts due to TSUs 3 February - 5 March 2010 Informal Peer Review 11 March 2010 Collated comments to chapters 22-25 March 2010 2nd Lead Authors Meeting – Hanoi, Vietnam  9 July 2010 1st-order drafts due to TSUs

26 July - 20 September 2010 29 September 2010 25-28 October 2010 SREX Expert Review  29 September 2010 Collated Expert Review comments to chapters 25-28 October 2010 3rd Lead Authors Meeting – Geneva 3 January 2011 2nd-order drafts due to TSUs 12 January - 9 March 2011 SREX Government/Expert Review  18 March 2011 Collated Government/Expert Review comments to chapters

11-14 April 2011 15 June 2011 24 August 2011 2 September 2011 4th Lead Authors Meeting – Location TBD 15 June 2011 Final drafts due to TSUs 24 August 2011 SREX Final Government Distribution 2 September 2011 Collated SPM comments from Governments 23-24 September 2011 SREX Pre-Plenary CLA Meeting 26-30 September 2011 Joint WG1/WG2 Session to approve SREX SPM and accept underlying document

Outline for the Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report

Major themes Building from the structure of the AR4 Better integration of climate science with climate impacts Broader range of assessed impacts Climate change in the context of other stresses Better treatment of extremes and disasters Framing to support good decisions, including information on risk Expanded treatment of adaptation Better integration of adaptation, mitigation, and development More comprehensive treatment of regional aspects of climate change

Major Sections or “Superchapters” Part A: GLOBAL & SECTORAL ASPECTS Context for the AR5 Natural and managed resources and systems, and their uses Human settlements, industry, and infrastructure Human health, well-being, and security Adaptation Multi-sector impacts, risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities Part B: REGIONAL ASPECTS With WG1 and WG3 input and collaboration

PART A: GLOBAL & SECTORAL ASPECTS Context for the AR5 1 Point of departure 2 Foundations for decisionmaking Natural and Managed Resources and Systems, and Their Uses 3 Freshwater resources 4 Terrestrial and inland water systems 5 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 6 Ocean systems 7 Food production systems and food security Human Settlements, Industry, and Infrastructure 8 Urban Areas 9 Rural Areas 10 Key economic sectors and services Human Health, Well-Being, and Security 11 Human health 12 Human security 13 Livelihoods and poverty   Adaptation 14 Adaptation needs and options 15 Adaptation planning and implementation 16 Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits 17 Economics of adaptation Multi-Sector Impacts, Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities 18 Detection and attribution of observed impacts 19 Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities 20 Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development

Part B: REGIONAL ASPECTS with WG1 and WG3 input and collaboration Regional Context Introduction Information on observed climate changes and relevant non-climate factors Regional projections: added value and limitations Similarities and pertinent differences in systems across regions Cross-regional hotspots Regional Chapters Africa Europe Asia Australasia North America Central and South America Polar Regions Small Islands Open Oceans

[Context] = common topics addressed in each sectoral and regional chapter Observed impacts, with detection and attribution Projected integrated climate change impacts, with regional variation by scenario and time slice Assessing impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks Vulnerability to key drivers (including extremes) Economic, social, and environmental context for uncertain futures under alternative development pathways Multiple interacting stresses Uncertainty Valuation of impacts and adaptation Key vulnerabilities Adaptation and managing risks Adaptation needs and gaps (based on assessed impacts and vulnerabilities) Practical experiences of adaptation, including lessons learned Observed and expected barriers to adaptation Observed and expected limits to adaptation Facilitating adaptation and avoiding maladaptation Planned and autonomous adaptation Potential and residual impacts Thresholds and irreversible changes Case studies Research and data gaps

The IPCC Does not conduct research or monitor trends Does conduct comprehensive assessments Does provide statements that are policy-relevant and policy-neutral Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and comprehensive assessment Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports

Dealing with uncertainty: Confidence and Likelihood Likelihood is a statement about the uncertainty in the occurrence of specific outcomes, based on expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence Confidence is a statement about the correctness of underlying data, models or analyses, based on expert judgment

Likelihood is the Assessed Probability of Occurrence of an Outcome Virtually certain >99% Extremely likely >95% Very likely >90% Likely >66% More likely than not > 50% About as likely as not 33% to 66% Unlikely <33% Very unlikely <10% Extremely unlikely <5% Exceptionally unlikely <1%

Confidence is the Assessed Chance of a Finding Being Correct Very high confidence at least 9 out of 10 High confidence about 8 out of 10 Medium confidence about 5 out of 10 Low confidence about 2 out of 10 Very low confidence less than 1 out of 10

Example of usage Emerging evidence of climate change effects on human health shows that climate change has: altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors (medium confidence); altered the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species (high confidence); heatwave-related deaths (medium confidence) Projected trends in climate-change-related exposures of importance to human health will: increase malnutrition and consequent disorders, including those relating to child growth and development (high confidence); ……

Using non-published / non-peer reviewed material (aka grey literature) Particularly as we move towards practice and implementation, diversity of sources of information is increasing Authors need to critically assess sources for quality and validity Non-peer-reviewed sources will be listed in the reference sections of IPCC Reports. These will be integrated with references for the peer-reviewed sources. These will be integrated with references to the peer reviewed sources stating how the material can be accessed, but will be followed by a statement that they are not published Copy of source together with relevant meta-data to be sent to the WG bureau Specific responsibilities for Bureau, Secretariat

Why is the srex so important?

Putting adaptation into practice: Integration or mainstreaming: where and how? Resource management: water, forestry Adaptation Development activities: infrastructure, public services Disaster management: climate-related hazards

Climate change poses a challenge in each of these contexts for integration Disaster management often focuses on relief In terms of long-term adaptive capacity, what is more important – reducing the immediate impact (relief) vs. restoring the flow of economic goods and services (recovery)? Development planning authority is usually local Can we get mal-adaptation, because the climate signal is at a spatial and temporal scale which is not perceived? Can operational management accommodate long-term changes in climate baseline? How useful is the 30-year climate “normal”? Are we able to recognize and assess multiple stresses and path dependence?

The importance of (local) strategies and actions In practice, this is where the different communities (across science & across practice) come together In order to manage risk, need to understand how agents and stakeholders perceive, evaluate and respond to risk Response to chronic vs. acute hazard This process happens at different scales: Spatial: local – regional – national – international Institutional: individual – family – community – regions Temporal: relief – recovery – resilience Unfortunately, much of our research effort is at specific scales, and findings are often not generalizable and hard to translate across scale The perception – evaluation – response process is fairly critical as are the cross-scale interactions in this process.