Modelling C sequestration following afforestation/reforestation Preliminary simulations using GRC3 FORESTRY AND FOREST PRODUCTS Keryn Paul Phil Polglase.

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Presentation transcript:

Modelling C sequestration following afforestation/reforestation Preliminary simulations using GRC3 FORESTRY AND FOREST PRODUCTS Keryn Paul Phil Polglase Gary Richards NATIONAL CARBON ACCOUNTING SYSTEM

Background CSIRO FFP Soil

GRC3 structure

Process

Objective Preliminary testing of GRC3… 1.Development of model structure 2.Identify important pools for sequestration of C 3.Improved knowledge for: - Application of model (avoid misuse) -Management of plantations for C sequestration -Clarify expectations of the role of plantations and soil under a C trading system (set default values)

Preliminary simulations 7 case studies in Australia Model calibrated to: –Growth –Above and/or below ground biomass –Litter fall –Litter layer mass Model run to generate unverified outputs for soil C

Case studies Annual rainfall (mm) 4 sites 5 sites 29 sites 3 sites 14 sites 2 sites 3 sites

Deriving allocation of NPP to stems ObservedPredicted

Deriving allocation of NPP to roots

Deriving allocation of NPP to foliage

Deriving allocation of NPP to foliage & litter decomposition

Pinus radiata, SA

E. globulus, low rainfall WA

E. globulus, SE Vic.

C removed from atmosphere

C removed in products

Change in soil C ?

?

Importantprocesses

NPP StemsBranchesBarkFoliageF. rootsC. roots 3-PG Tree Debris Soil Empirical litter decomp. submodel better?

Importantprocesses

NPP StemsBranchesBarkFoliageF. rootsC. roots DeRe Sol.Cel. Lig. 3-PG GENDEC Tree Debris Soil CO 2

humification of plant cellulose and lignin pools Little available information on change in soil C following afforestation

Further work… Development of models for decomposition and humification of litter Verification of soil C sub-models –Paired pasture/plantation sites –Soil fractionation

Summary Potentially large influences of management and climate on C sequestration following afforestation Most C is sequestered by tree biomass Changes in soil C appear be relatively minor, but this needs to be tested

E. grandis, Q’ld

P. radiata, NSW

E. nitens, Tas

NPP StemsBranchesBarkFoliageF. rootsC. roots DeRe 3-PG Roth-C Tree Debris Soil De Re CO 2 RPMDPMHUM CO 2 ? ? ?