1. An Introduction to Carbon Modelling Developing Forestry and Bioenergy Projects within CDM Quito, Ecuador March, 2004

2. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 2 Overview Definitions Reasons for Modelling System Boundaries Introduction to Carbon Flows Generalized Biomass Equations Non-Biomass LULUCF Emissions Energy Emissions Input Parameters Sensitivity Analysis Inverse Modelling

3. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 3 Definitions Volume (m 3 ) –Merchantable or total Biomass (t) Carbon (tC) –50% of dry biomass Carbon Dioxide Equivalence (tCO 2 e) –Carbon x 44/12

4. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 4 Definitions Pool, Stock Stock Change  biomass (tC) Emissions by Sources Removals by Sinks Fluxes

5. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 5 Reasons for Modelling Forecast of Sequestration Estimation of Baseline Effects of Management Sensitivity Analysis Selection of Pools to Monitor Estimation between Measurements Calibration to Carbon Measurements –Fine tuning of parameters

6. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 6 System Boundaries Spatial Boundary –The “project boundary” geographically delineates the afforestation or reforestation project activity under the control of the project participants. The project activity may contain more than one discrete area of land. –Models, full life-cycle Temporal Boundary –CDM (30 years, or 3 times 20 years) –Models, full life-cycle

7. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 7 The Carbon Cycle Roots Trees Other Plants Soil Landfills Atmosphere Landfills Products Root Litter Fine Litter Coarse Litter

8. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 8 Above Ground Tree Biomass Volume, V(t) –Growth and yield tables –Merchantable volume Expansion,  (t) 1.2 <  < 4.2 –Measurements –Tree components (CO2FIX) Density,  (t) Trees

9. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 9 Yield Curve Example From Hofstede and Aguirre, 1999

10. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 10 Root Biomass Total Root Biomass, R (t) 0.2 <  < 0.5 Fine Root Biomass, r(t) Roots

11. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 11 Litter Biomass Litter, L –By pool, p Litter Input, LI –Portion of biomass,  Litter Decomposition, LD –Proportional to litter biomass –Dependant on quality, precipitation, temperature Fine Litter Coarse Litter

12. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 12 Litter Decomposition Rate Adapted from Moore et al., 1999

13. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 13 Root Litter Biomass Root Litter, RL –By pool, p Root Litter Input, RI –Portion of root biomass,  Root Decomposition, RD –Proportional to root biomass –Exponential decay Root Litter

14. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 14 Soil Biomass Soil, S Soil Input, SI –Portion of decomposing litter and root litter Soil Decomposition, SD –Exponential decay Soil

15. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 15 Wood Products Biomass Wood products, W –By product type, p Wood Product Input, WI Wood Product Decomposition, WD –Proportional to wood product biomass Leakage Not formally part of CDM Products

16. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 16 Landfill Biomass Landfilled waste, G –By landfill type, p Landfill Input, GI –From discarded wood products Landfill Decomposition, GD –Exponential decay Landfills

17. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 17 Non-Biomass Emissions LULUCF Projects Fossil Fuel Consumption on Site –Per hectare for management –Per tonne of wood product at harvest Other Non-CO2 Emissions –Changing Water Balance –Use of Fertilizers

18. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 18 Energy Emissions Bioenergy Projects Fossil Fuel Consumption –Per tonne of wood product –Per tonne of waste landfilled –Per tonne of recycled wood product Electricity Consumption –Per tonne of wood product –Emission intensity Fossil Fuel Displaced by Bioenergy –Appear in baseline

19. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 19 Input Parameters Numerous (> 60) Measured Directly –Tree volume, annual litter input, litter decomposition Estimated –Harvest proportions, energy parameters Modelled from Measurements –Litter and soil biomass

20. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 20 Sensitivity Analysis Parameters Models

21. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 21 Sensitivity Analysis

22. Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc. 22 Inverse Problem Parameters Measurements Non-unique Errors