SOUTH AFRICA AS THE BRICS ‘GATEWAY TO AFRICA’ IMPLICATIONS FOR MIGRATION PATTERNS Ana Faria-Santana CCPN-LSE Research Associate

SUMMARY I. SOUTH AFRICA – “THE GATEWAY TO AFRICA”? II. SOUTH AFRICA’S ROLE IN BRICS  Economic Standing  Institutional Framework  SADC  AU  SADC-MERCOSUR  IBSA  G20 III. AFRICA’S SIGNIFICANCE FOR BRICS  Economic performance  Africa Tripartite FTA  Trade Flows IV. LIKELY IMPLICATIONS FOR MIGRATION FLOWS AND PATTERNS V. CONCLUSION

I.SOUTH AFRICA – “THE GATEWAY TO AFRICA”? “It just doesn’t make sense, because it doesn’t have any economic clout other than being an access point for the Bric countries.” - Jim O’Neill, Global Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Mail & Guardian, 23/03/12) “(…) What is important, though, is whether South Africa can help the Brics achieve anything as a group and, in this regard, justify and boost its presence in the club. (…) South Africa could more than justify its presence if it helped Africa to fulfil its remarkable potential.” - Idem (Mail & Guardian, 30/03/12) “South Africa: ‘The Gateway to Africa’? - Used to being top dog in almost everything in Africa, South Africa has been slipping down the league tables. In 1995 it accounted for almost half of sub-Saharan Africa's GDP; today it claims less than a third.” - The Economist (02/06/12) “I can assure Mr O’Neill that the objective to fulfil Africa’s remarkable potential is at the forefront of our political and economic diplomacy.” - Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, SA Minister of International Relations and Cooperation (The BRICS Post, 19/02/13)

II. SOUTH AFRICA’S ROLE IN BRICS  Economic Standing  GDP per head of over $11,000 at purchasing power parity, bigger than China's or India's and more than four times the African average.  Best infrastructure in Africa  80% of Africa’s rail network  Best regional Stock Exchange  World’s richest country in mineral reserves  In 2012 alone SA trade with other BRICS grew by 29%

 Institutional Framework  SADC - Southern African Development Community – Economic Leader  AU - African Union – Chairperson (Ms. Dlamini-Zuma)  SADC-MERCOSUR - South Africa, Brazil – Regional Leaders  IBSA - India, Brazil, South Africa Forum – Coordinating Role  G20 - Only African country represented

III. AFRICA’S SIGNIFICANCE FOR BRICS  Economic performance  sub-Saharan Africa growth rate for sub- Saharan Africa at 5.5% in 2012  Between 2010 and 2015, 7 out of the top 10 fastest-growing economies in the world will be African  BRICS largest investors in the continent  Trade between BRICS and Africa to increase threefold, from $150 billion in 2010 to $530 billion in 2015

 Africa Tripartite FTA (T-FTA) A 26-country, $1 trillion African Tripartite Free Trade Area (T-FTA) for East, Southern and Central Africa (COMESA, EAC, SADC) in the next three years, expanding this regional market to 600 million people

T-FTA Trade Flows [COMESA/EAC/SADC] Source: UNECA RECsAFRICACHINAASIAEUJAPANUSARest of World WORLD COMESA EAC SADC RECsAFRICACHINAASIAEUJAPANUSARest of World WORLD COMESA EAC SADC Direction of REC exports in US$ millions, average Average per cent share of import sources 2000 – 2007

IV. LIKELY IMPLICATIONS FOR MIGRATION FLOWS AND PATTERNS  Return Migration to South Africa (SA)  Migration Inflows to SA and Africa  Migration Outflows from SA and Africa

V. CONCLUSION SOUTH AFRICA: THE BRICS GATEWAY TO AFRICA