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Taking a Long View of Economic Growth Potential: Some Numbers and Implications The Global Institute Conferences Second Annual China-Russia.

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Presentation on theme: "Taking a Long View of Economic Growth Potential: Some Numbers and Implications The Global Institute Conferences Second Annual China-Russia."— Presentation transcript:

1 jlinn@brookings.edu1 Taking a Long View of Economic Growth Potential: Some Numbers and Implications The Global Institute Conferences Second Annual China-Russia Conference in Moscow, October 13-14, 2006 Johannes Linn, Wolfensohn Center for Development The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC

2 jlinn@brookings.edu 2 Selected Large Economies: Projected GDP (in 2005 US$ trillions) China: largest economy past 2040 Russia: in 2050 greater than individual EU countries, 1/3 EU, 1/5 India, 1/6 US, 1/8 China, smaller than Brazil and Mexico Source: Goldman Sachs December 2005 ChinaRussiaIndiaBrazilJapanGermFranceItalyUKEU4US 2005 1.9 0.8 0.7 5.3 3.1 2.3 1.9 2.3 9.612.5 2025 11.7 2.9 3.6 2.3 6.7 3.9 3.2 2.5 3.312.919.6 2550 48.6 6.2 27.2 8.2 8.0 5.4 4.9 3.1 5.118.537.7

3 jlinn@brookings.edu 3 Selected Large Economies: Projected GDP Growth (in % per year) ChinaRussiaIndiaBrazilJapanGermFranceItalyUKEU4US 2005 -10 7.64.56.24.01.21.6 1.32.1(1.7)2.8 2020 -25 4.52.85.43.71.30.71.71.01.5(1.3)2.2 2045 -50 2.81.54.93.41.11.31.71.51.6(1.5)2.6 Drivers: Population growth, catch-up potential, past growth and expected policy performance China ranked 53, Russia 81 of 170 countries in terms of policy performance Source: Goldman Sachs December 2005

4 jlinn@brookings.edu 4 G8 versus Non-G8: Projected GDP (in 2005 US$ trillions for largest 22 economies) G8Non-G8G8/Non-G8 2005 29.0 6.2 4.68 2025 42.2 27.3 1.54 2050 70.4 119.3 0.59 G8 summits increasingly obsolete as global steering group An expanded summit forum (e.g. G20) much more appropriate (some 90% of world GDP) Source: Goldman Sachs December 2005

5 jlinn@brookings.edu 5 Eurasia versus Non-Eurasia: Projected GDP (in 2005 US$ trillions for largest 22 economies) EurasiaNon-EurasiaEurasia/Non-G8 2005 21.3 15.4 1.38 2025 44.4 26.8 1.66 2050 130.2 62.9 2.07 Eurasia defined to include all of Europe and Asia Eurasian GDP 1/3 larger than Non-Eurasian in 2005, 2/3 in 2025 and double by 2050 Eurasian economic integration likely a key feature of continued globalization process Source: Goldman Sachs December 2005

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