National Coordinating Office USA-NPN September 23, 2014 Gaining 100% certainty in intensity estimation

Alyssa Rosemartin Assistant Director & IT Coordinator Erin Posthumus Outreach Associate Ellen Denny Monitoring Design Coordinator Patty Guertin Botanist LoriAnne Barnett Education NPN Webinar Team

Phenology The science of the seasons Blooms and buds Hibernation, migration, emergence Easy to observe Photo credits: L. Barnett …it is the study of the timing of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages, or phenophases, and their relationship to environmental conditions.

U NDERSTAND HOW SPECIES AND LANDSCAPES ARE RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE. Primary goal Create a standardized dataset for use in multiple types of research. Mission Make phenology data, models and related information available. Encourage people of all ages and backgrounds to observe and record phenology. USA National Phenology Network Photo credit: C. Enquist

Nature’s Notebook for scientists, naturalists, volunteers, land managers, park rangers, and YOU! Photo credit: L. Romano Poll

 Long term monitoring of the same individual plants  Importance of entering the “no” observations  At least weekly observations - catch the first “yes”  If uncertain, use the “?”

Leaves Flowers Fruits

Why do we care about these phenophases? Canopy –carbon sequestration, food for wildlife –Fast green-up – longer amount of time for carbon to be taken up by a tree –Calibrate remotely-sensed images Peak flower – wildflower viewing, pollination Fruiting – food for wildlife Photo: Brian F Powell

We actually don’t need 100% certainty! Photo: Brian F Powell Can you ballpark the number of people in this room to 10, 100 or 1000?

Deciduous plant phenophases Breaking leaf buds Leaves Increasing leaf size Colored leaves Flowers or Flower Buds Open Flowers FruitsRipe Fruits Recent fruit or seed drop

What is intensity? If you answer “Yes” or “Uncertain” to a phenophase – you may be asked an additional question about the degree to which the phenophase is expressed, for example: How many leaf buds are breaking? What percent of flowers are open? How much pollen do you see?

1.Counts in number bins (ie “How many --- are present?”) 2. Percent in bins (ie “What percent of flowers are open?”) 3. Percent canopy (ie “What percent of the canopy is full with leaves?”) 4. Oddballs: Leaf size percentage, how much pollen is released  The definitions were written to be taken literally. Estimating Intensity: Outline

Do you see… open flowers? Open flowers : For Cornus florida, ignore the four large, white bracts and watch for the opening of the small flowers in the center of the bracts. The definitions are there to help Photo: Derek Ramsey via Wikimedia Commons No

How many --- are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 How many buds are breaking How many flowers or flower buds (or number of catkins) How many fruits How many ripe fruits recently dropped INTENSITY

Breaking leaf buds One or more breaking leaf buds are visible on the plant. A leaf bud is considered "breaking" once a green leaf tip is visible at the end of the bud, but before the first leaf from the bud has unfolded to expose the leaf stalk (petiole) or leaf base. NoYes No Leaf stalk or petiole is visible. Photos: Ellen G Denny

How many breaking leaf buds are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Photo: Axel Kristinsson, Wikimedia commons INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! How many breaking leaf buds are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Poll eastern cottonwood, Populus deltoides INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! How many breaking leaf buds are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Poll eastern cottonwood, Populus deltoides INTENSITY

One or more fresh open or unopened flowers or flower buds are visible on the plant. Include flower buds that are still developing, but do not include wilted or dried flowers. Photos: Ellen G Denny Yes Flowers or flower buds Forsythia, Forsythia spp.

Photos: Ellen G Denny For species in which individual flowers are clustered in flower heads, spikes or catkins (inflorescences), simply estimate the number of flower heads, spikes or catkins and not the number of individual flowers. Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 How many flowers/flower buds are present? pussy willow, Salix discolor INTENSITY

Photos: Ellen G Denny For species in which individual flowers are clustered in flower heads, spikes or catkins (inflorescences), simply estimate the number of flower heads, spikes or catkins and not the number of individual flowers. Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 How many flowers/flower buds are present? pussy willow, Salix discolor INTENSITY

How many flowers/flower buds are present? Photo: Kroton via Wikimedia Commons Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 flowering dogwood, Cornus florida INTENSITY

How many flowers/flower buds are present? Photo: Kroton via Wikimedia Commons Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 flowering dogwood, Cornus florida INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! How many flowers/flower buds are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Photo: Ellen G Denny Poll mountain-laurel, Kalmia latifolia INTENSITY Note: The infloresence (umbel) of mountain-laurel should be counted, but here, please estimate number of individual flowers

Pop Quiz! How many flowers/flower buds are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Photo: Ellen G Denny Poll mountain-laurel, Kalmia latifolia INTENSITY Note: The infloresence (umbel) of mountain-laurel should be counted, but here, please estimate number of individual flowers

Fruit One or more fruits are visible on the plant Photos: Steven J. Baskauf, Diana Olszowy, super-sad.info, PhreddieH3, Robert Sivinski, IPFW, Mackenzie Younger

Fruit: One or more fruits are visible on the plant. For Acer rubrum, the fruit is two joined seeds in a "V" shape, each seed having a wing, that changes from green or red to tan or brownish and drops from the plant. Ripe Fruit: One or more ripe fruits are visible on the plant. For Acer rubrum, a fruit is considered ripe when it has turned tan or brownish and readily drops from the plant when touched. Fruit Photo: Steven J. Baskauf Red maple, Acer rubrum Yes for fruit No for ripe fruit

How many fruits are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 common winterberry, Ilex verticillata Photo: Ellen G Denny INTENSITY

How many fruits are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 common winterberry, Ilex verticillata Photo: Ellen G Denny INTENSITY

Like flowers, may also be clustered, e.g. in pods For Prosopis velutina, the fruit is a pod that changes from green to tan, often mottled or flecked with maroon Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Photo: Robert Sivinski How many fruits are present? velvet mesquite, Prosopis velutina INTENSITY

How many fruits are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Photo: Robert Sivinski Pop Quiz! Poll velvet mesquite, Prosopis velutina INTENSITY

How many fruits are present? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Photo: Robert Sivinski Pop Quiz! Poll velvet mesquite, Prosopis velutina INTENSITY

Recent fruit drop  Yes, if a lot of unripe fruit from your last visit appears to have ripened and fallen.  Yes, if a storm seems to have brought a lot of ripe or almost ripe fruit down  ?, if you cannot determine if the fruit is old or recent. Photo: Matt Oden One or more mature fruits or seeds have dropped or been removed from the plant since your last visit. Do not include obviously immature fruits that have dropped before ripening, such as in a heavy rain or wind, or empty fruits that had long ago dropped all of their seeds but remained on the plant. black walnut, Juglans nigra

How many mature fruits have dropped seeds or have completely dropped or been removed from the plant since your last visit? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 black walnut, Juglans nigra Photo: Matt Oden

How many mature fruits have dropped seeds or have completely dropped or been removed from the plant since your last visit? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 black walnut, Juglans nigra Photo: Matt Oden INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! How many mature fruits have dropped seeds or have completely dropped or been removed from the plant since your last visit? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Photos: Brian Haggerty, Matt Harding, California Phenology Project PollCreosote bush, Larrea tridentata INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! How many mature fruits have dropped seeds or have completely dropped or been removed from the plant since your last visit? Less than 3 3 to to to 1,000 1,001 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Photos: California Phenology Project PollCreosote bush, Larrea tridentata INTENSITY

What % of --- are --- ? Less than 5% 95% or more 5-24%25-49% 50-74% 75-94% Flowers/open Fruit/ripe INTENSITY

Open flowers One or more open, fresh flowers are visible on the plant. Flowers are considered "open" when the reproductive parts (male stamens or female pistils) are visible between or within unfolded or open flower parts (petals, floral tubes or sepals). Do not include wilted or dried flowers. Photos: Ellen G Denny Yes, Flowers or flower buds No, Open flowers Yes, Flowers or flower buds Yes, Open flowers Forsythia, Forsythia spp.

What percent of flowers are open? Photos: Ellen G Denny Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more common winterberry, Ilex verticillata INTENSITY

What percent of flowers are open? Photos: Ellen G Denny Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more common winterberry, Ilex verticillata INTENSITY

What percent of flowers are open? Photos: Ellen G Denny For species in which individual flowers are clustered in flower heads, spikes or catkins (inflorescences), estimate the percentage of all individual flowers that are open. Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Grey alder, Alnus incana INTENSITY

What percent of flowers are open? Photo: Ellen G Denny For Alnus incana, the male flowers will open once the initially compact catkin has unfolded and is hanging loosely Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Grey alder, Alnus incana INTENSITY

What percent of flowers are open? Photo: Ellen G Denny Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Grey alder, Alnus incana For Alnus incana, the male flowers will open once the initially compact catkin has unfolded and is hanging loosely INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! Photo: Ellen G Denny What percentage of flowers are open? Hint: For Vaccinium corymbosum, flowers are open when reproductive parts are visible from underneath, and the bottom of the flower opens into a bell shape with scalloped edges Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Poll highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! Photo: Ellen G Denny Poll highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum What percentage of flowers are open? Hint: For Vaccinium corymbosum, flowers are open when reproductive parts are visible from underneath, and the bottom of the flower opens into a bell shape with scalloped edges Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more INTENSITY

No, fruit No, ripe fruit Fruit or ripe fruit Yes, fruit Yes, ripe fruit Photos: Ellen G Denny Ripe fruit: One or more ripe fruits are visible on the plant. For Hamamelis virginiana, a fruit is considered ripe when it has turned brown and has split open to expose the seeds. Do not include empty capsules that have already dropped all of their seeds. Yes, fruit No, ripe fruit

What percent of fruits are ripe? For Prunus serotina, a fruit is considered ripe when it has turned purple-black or black Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Photo: Mackenzie Younger black cherry, Prunus serotina INTENSITY

What percent of fruits are ripe? For Prunus serotina, a fruit is considered ripe when it has turned purple-black or black Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Photo: Mackenzie Younger black cherry, Prunus serotina INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! What percentage of fruit are ripe? Hint: For highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum), a fruit is considered ripe when it has turned blue or blue-black Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Photos: Ellen G Denny Poll highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! What percentage of fruit are ripe? Hint: For highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum), a fruit is considered ripe when it has turned blue or blue-black Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Photos: Ellen G Denny Poll highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum INTENSITY

What % of the canopy is --- ? Less than 5% 95% or more 5-24%25-49% 50-74% 75-94% Percent of canopy is full with leaves Percent of canopy is full with colored leaves Percent of plant is green (grasses) INTENSITY

What % of the canopy is full with leaves? Photo: Anette Schloss Start with a bare tree… no leaves INTENSITY

Imagine it fully leafed out… What % of the canopy is full with leaves? Photo: Anette Schloss INTENSITY

* Ignore dead branches in your estimate. Photo: Anette Schloss Less than 5% What % of the canopy is full with leaves? INTENSITY

5-24% What % of the canopy is full with leaves? Photo: Anette Schloss INTENSITY

25-49% What % of the canopy is full with leaves? Photo: Anette Schloss INTENSITY

50-74% What % of the canopy is full with leaves? Photo: Anette Schloss INTENSITY

75-94% What % of the canopy is full with leaves? Photo: Anette Schloss INTENSITY

95% or more What % of the canopy is full with leaves? Photo: Anette Schloss INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! Photo: Ellen G Denny What percentage of the canopy is full with leaves? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Full canopy: Poll sugar maple, Acer saccharum INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! What percentage of the canopy is full with leaves? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Full canopy: Poll Photo: Ellen G Denny sugar maple, Acer saccharum INTENSITY

Yes … and it doesn’t matter why:  Summer drought  Insect damage or other stresses Colored leaves Colored leaves: One or more leaves have turned to their late- season colors. Do not include fully dried or dead leaves that remain on the plant. Photo: Ellen G Denny

Colored leaves Yes … and it doesn’t matter how much of the leaf is colored One or more leaves have turned to their late-season colors. Do not include fully dried or dead leaves that remain on the plant. Photos: Ellen G Denny

What percentage of the canopy is full with colored leaves? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Photo: Ellen G Denny sugar maple, Acer saccharum INTENSITY

Leaves: 25-49% Colored leaves: 25-49% Leaves: 95% or more Colored leaves: No Photos: Anette Schloss Leaves: 95% or more Colored leaves: 75-94% Leaves: No Colored leaves: No

What percentage of the canopy is full with colored leaves? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Photo: Ellen G Denny sugar maple, Acer saccharum INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! What percentage of the canopy is full with colored leaves? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Poll sugar maple, Acer saccharum Photo: Ellen G Denny INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! What percentage of the canopy is full with colored leaves? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Poll Photo: Ellen G Denny INTENSITY sugar maple, Acer saccharum

What percentage of the plant is green? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Photos: Cynthia Wallace 5-24% 25-49% 75% + buffelgrass, Pennisetum ciliare INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! What percentage of the plant is green? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Poll buffelgrass, Pennisetum ciliare Photo: desertmuseum.org INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! What percentage of the plant is green? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Poll Photo: desertmuseum.org buffelgrass, Pennisetum ciliare INTENSITY

What % of full size are most leaves? Less than 5% 95% or more 5-24%25-49% 50-74% 75-94% INTENSITY

50-74%25-49% 75-95% Mature leaf What % of full size are most leaves? paper birch, Betula papyrifera INTENSITY Photos: Ellen G Denny

Pop Quiz! Knowing that this leaf is full size: What percent of full are most leaves? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more Poll Photos: Ellen G Denny black oak, Quercus veluntina INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! Photos: Ellen G Denny Knowing that this leaf is full size: Poll black oak, Quercus veluntina INTENSITY What percent of full are most leaves? Less than 5% 5-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-94% 95% or more

How much pollen is released? Little: Only a few grains are released. Some: Many grains are released. Lots: A layer of pollen covers your palm, or a cloud of pollen can be seen in the air when the wind blows Photos: Patricia Guertin, Beatriz Moisset via Wikimedia Commons INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! How much pollen is released? Little Some Lots Poll Photo: B.gliwa via Wikimedia Commons INTENSITY

Pop Quiz! How much pollen is released? Little Some Lots Poll INTENSITY Photo: B.gliwa via Wikimedia Commons

Resources 1.Start with the definitions, and species- specific information.

Resources 1.Start with the definitions, and species- specific information.

Resources 1.Start with the definitions, and species- specific information. 2.Try the FAQ page.

Resources 1.Start with the definitions, and species- specific information. 2.Try the FAQ page. 3.

Resources 1.Start with the definitions, and species- specific information. 2.Try the FAQ page Botany 101 guide– due this fall, and Phenophase Primer – due next spring Basic Botany for making observations in Nature’s Notebook

Join a Nature’s Notebook campaign! By participating in one of our regional campaigns you can help researchers answer key questions, get info-rich s with localized results, and an end of season summary.

Alyssa Rosemartin Assistant Director & IT Coordinator Erin Posthumus Outreach Associate Ellen Denny Monitoring Design Coordinator Patty Guertin Botanist LoriAnne Barnett Education Thank you!

Extra Slides

Leaves No – don’t count leaves as either leaves or colored leaves after they have lost all their pigments, nutrients and chlorophyll. One or more live, unfolded leaves are visible on the plant. A leaf is considered "unfolded" once its entire length has emerged from the breaking bud so that the leaf stalk (petiole) or leaf base is visible at its point of attachment to the stem. Do not include fully dried or dead leaves. Photo: casey artandcolor

Flowers or flower buds: One or more fresh open or unopened flowers or flower buds are visible on the plant. Include flower buds that are still developing, but do not include wilted or dried flowers. No Yes Photos: Ellen G Denny Flowers or flower buds

Leaf bud? Flower bud?  Get to know the species  Leaves and flowers may develop in the same bud (e.g. sugar maple)  Before reporting breaking leaf buds, wait for green leaf tip to emerge Photos: Ellen G Denny

Leaf bud? Flower bud? Photos: Ellen G Denny  If unsure, make a comment on the first date you see a bud expanding  If it turns out to be a flower bud, go back and report “yes” to flowers or flower buds starting with the date with comment

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