Conceptual Models Operational and Instructional Considerations Phil Chadwick

What is a Conceptual Model? Unique representation of atmospheric structure Unique representation of atmospheric structure Explains the genesis, evolution and decay of the structure Explains the genesis, evolution and decay of the structure Incorporates all of the best science about the atmospheric structure Incorporates all of the best science about the atmospheric structure Allows quick and accurate analysis and diagnosis of the atmospheric structure Allows quick and accurate analysis and diagnosis of the atmospheric structure Facilitates anticipation and prediction Facilitates anticipation and prediction Warm Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model Mature Stage and confidence

Conceptual Models as Building Blocks Conceptual Models (atmospheric structures) only fit together in selected ways in the atmosphere Conceptual Models (atmospheric structures) only fit together in selected ways in the atmosphere Upper Trough Conceptual Model Upper Ridge Conceptual Model Most effective operational meteorologists have an extensive library of conceptual models Most effective operational meteorologists have an extensive library of conceptual models Dry CB Cold CB Upper Ridge Conceptual Model Upper Trough Conceptual Model

Conceptual Model Components Comprised of meteorological signatures of processes and dynamic features Warm Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model Mature Stage Conceptual Model Signature Signature = simplest representation of a dynamic feature Gradients of Relative Temperature, Relative wind, etc Conceptual Model Signature Something a meteorologist can see … analyze … Large Scale Analysis and Diagnosis Medium Scale Analysis and Diagnosis Small Scale Analysis and Diagnosis Local Scale Analysis and Diagnosis

Warm, moist southerly flow rising along isentropic surface Warm, moist southerly flow rising along isentropic surface Relative gradients in WV imagery Relative gradients in WV imagery Size Size Shape Shape Shadow Shadow Tone Tone texture texture Dry CB Cold CB Warm CB View Large Scale Analysis and Diagnosis 24 hours later … The Importance of the WCB Conceptual Model = Travel Nightmare Warm Conveyor Belt – and Friends N X

Warm Conveyor Belt (WCB) WCB Components WCB Components Deformation Zones Deformation Zones On all edges On all edges Think 3D flows… Think 3D flows… Cold CB Warm CB Dry CB Medium Scale Analysis and Diagnosis

Deformation Zone Components Comprised of: Col Col Confluent Asymptotes and Confluent Asymptotes and Vorticity Centres Vorticity Centres N NX X Axis of Contraction Axis of Dilatation C Paired Vorticity Centres Companion Inflow

Deformation Zone - Shape N N X X Warm Cold A Refinement to the Deformation Zone Conceptual Model

Deformation Zone Components DZ Components: Col Col Confluent Asymptotes - Edge Confluent Asymptotes - Edge Vorticity Maximum - Whorl Vorticity Maximum - Whorl Vorticity Minimum - Whorl Vorticity Minimum - Whorl Simple Dynamic Features Simple Dynamic Features Simple Signatures Simple Signatures Small Scale Analysis and Diagnosis C NX … but one can go much further …… much, much further …

Drill Down – Confirm the Meteorological Structure by finding a few Conceptual Model Components A meteorologist familiar with the “Elephant Conceptual Model” will see this and quickly drill down to identify the tusk, toes… all of the signatures of an elephant. Theses pieces only go together one way to create the meteorological elephant. Ear Make a quick best guess at the identification of the meteorological structure and associated conceptual model through meteorological situational awareness You know you are in Africa.

Percolate Up – Analyze the Conceptual Model Components to Identify the Meteorological Structure A meteorologist familiar with the “Elephant Conceptual Model” will see this and percolate up to identify the tusk, toes, eye … Etc… and eventually all of the signatures of an elephant. Theses pieces only go together one way to create the meteorological elephant. Analyze the apparent signatures and deduce the associated conceptual model and meteorological structure independent of meteorological situational awareness You aren’t sure where you are... But it’s not Kansas.

A meteorologist familiar with the “Elephant Conceptual Model” will see this and percolate up to identify the tusk, toes, eye … Different Day… Different Beast… and issue an elephant forecast for what is really a rhinoceros… although he might think it is an elephant. The forecast will be beastly bad… Of course… a more thorough meteorologist might have looked for the elephant ears… and more signatures before going to warning … And invented the rhinoceros conceptual model… Percolate Up – Analyze the Conceptual Model Components to Identify the Meteorological Structure

Conceptual Models Operational and Instructional Considerations Operational Drill Down Conceptual Model approach fast, effective analysis and diagnosis Drill Down Conceptual Model approach fast, effective analysis and diagnosis Summary of current state of the art science Summary of current state of the art science Employs human strengths and situational awareness – gets the job done Employs human strengths and situational awareness – gets the job done Instructional Percolate Up Conceptual Model Approach thorough, effective way to train and develop science Percolate Up Conceptual Model Approach thorough, effective way to train and develop science Summary of current state of the art science Summary of current state of the art science Encourages curiosity and investigation of the real atmosphere Encourages curiosity and investigation of the real atmosphere

Conceptual Models Operational and Instructional Considerations Humans have unique skill set to interpret shapes and patterns out of apparent chaos Humans have unique skill set to interpret shapes and patterns out of apparent chaos Hundreds of important Conceptual Models Hundreds of important Conceptual Models Remote sensing data has spatial and temporal resolution commensurate with any atmospheric process Remote sensing data has spatial and temporal resolution commensurate with any atmospheric process Humans + Remote Sensing Data + Conceptual Models = Productive Human-Machine Symbiotic Relationship

Conceptual Models Operational and Instructional Considerations So What? Conceptual models are the building blocks to construct a meteorological mental image of the atmosphere Make better use of remote sensing data Produce better products & services Better meteorologists Nowcasting focus 0-24 hours Consistent with MSC policy No more “ ‘s”