Anticipate | Adapt| Achieve The Landscape of Tomorrow ? Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Conservation Landscape of the Future…To Sustain Fish and Wildlife Landscape 2010Landscape 2060? … SEAFWA Progress Summary Report 2014

SECAS – A Future Conservation Landscape in the Southeast The Need SECAS Framework Status of ongoing work in the LCCs and CSCs Expectations for the Next Two Years Discussion

The Need: Large Disruptive Changes Impacting Conservation 1940 If we had known in 1940 what we know in 2014, would we have done anything differently? The Urban Landscape 2030

Urban Growth - SLEUTH Models Slope, Land cover, Exclusion, Urbanization, Transportation, and Hillshade In 2014, if we can anticipate what 2060 will be like, will we do anything differently?

Climate Change – USGS Derived Downscaled Data In 2014, if we can anticipate what 2060 will be like, will we do anything differently?

Wind PotentialUrban Patterns Solar Potential Climate Change Shale/Coal Beds Water Stress The Need: Large Disruptive Changes are Impacting Conservation The breadth and scope of these challenges far exceed anything that we have faced in fish & wildlife conservation. We further recognize that, individually, our organizations are not equipped to deal effectively with these challenges, thus the need for new approaches, new techniques, new thinking, and above all, a collaborative effort to succeed.

Responding to The Challenges Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Conservation Landscape of the Future…To Sustain Fish and Wildlife Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies

SECAS Liaison: Ed Carter SEAFWA Liaison Cindy Dohner – Federal Liaison Requested Federal Leaders in the Southeast Natural Resources Leaders Group Support SECAS. Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Conservation Landscape of the Future…To Sustain Fish and Wildlife

Responding to The Challenges Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Conservation Landscape of the Future…To Sustain Fish and Wildlife Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Southeast Natural Resource Leaders Group Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Southeast Natural Resource Leaders Group

Traci Wood Allison Fowler Beth Stys Vacant Karen Waldrop Kenny Ribbeck Ed Penny Phillip Hanberry Shannon Deaton Richard Hatcher Breck Carmichael No POC Identified Mark Thurman Jeff Raasch No POC Identified David Whitehurst Paul Johansen David Bauman Pasquale Roscigno Marshall Williams Kevin Moody Cory Berish Bill Uihlein Dennis Krusac Kristen Laursen Sherri Fields Name Pending Evan Crew Ken Rice Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Conservation Landscape of the Future…To Sustain Fish and Wildlife State and Federal Point of Contacts

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Appalachian Caribbean Gulf Coast Prairie Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks Peninsular Florida South Atlantic

Climate Science Centers

SECAS – A Future Conservation Landscape in the Southeast The Need SECAS Framework

Define and Assess Ecological Systems of the Southeastern United States Define and assess the institutional setting within which the SE conservation community, and other communities of practice (e.g., community planning organizations) make conservation decisions. Define the process

GCPLCC SALCC GCPOLCC

SECAS Framework: Define and Assess Conservation Communities, Other Communities of Practice Some Traditional Conservation Communities – State F&W Agencies – Federal Land Managing Agencies – LCCs – Joint Ventures – Fish Habitat Partnerships – NGO’s – Coop Units – Universities – Land Trusts – Cultural Resources Expanding to other Communities of Practice – Community Planning (APA) – Transportation Sector – Energy Sector – Others?

SECAS Framework: Defining the Process – Build a decision framework, allowing for adaptive responses to alternative futures – Develop conceptual models which demonstrate system functionality, including drivers and stressors on system integrity. – Establish measurable outcomes of system sustainability and viability (conservation targets). – Incorporate global change (urbanization, climate, etc.) processes, and assess vulnerability of systems – alternative scenarios.

– Establish thresholds for systems, and assess system vulnerability to stressors. – Design spatially explicit, sustainable systems. – Incorporate social sciences into the process (decision theories, value of ecosystem services, etc.). – Focus on both natural systems, and coupled human-natural systems, engaging other communities of practice (community planning, transportation, energy, etc.) into the conservation planning process. SECAS Framework: Defining the Process

A Snapshot of SECAS Progress to Date… The following slides include some highlights of progress being made by partners through the six southeastern LCCs and Climate Science Centers (CSC):

Highest priority for shared action The South Atlantic LCC Conservation Blueprint: A shared vision of the future Living spatial plan Freshwater, marine, and terrestrial Natural and cultural indicators 300 people from 85 organizations involved Blueprint 2.0 coming June

21 The Ozark Comprehensive Conservation Strategy: Updating and Integrating State Wildlife Action Plans across state lines. Characteristics: Scientific Framework Transparent, repeatable, & defensible Partnership-driven Comprehensive Terra & Aquatic Natural & Cultural Informs Ecoregional Adaptation Strategy Links Local Actions to Regional Goal

SCENARIO 3 10% Fee Simple | 90% Easement + P1-CLIP 3.0 SCENARIO 2 10% Fee Simple | 90% Easement + Florida Forever targets SCENARIO 1 50% Fee Simple 50% Easement + Florida Forever targets Florida Alternative Conservation Futures

The Caribbean Atlas for Management Planning Options - "EL CAMPO" Spatially-explicit representation of priority indicator resources, drivers, vulnerabilities, and capacities in current and future scenarios

Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment Incorporating Future Change into Current Conservation Planning Who?What? Where?How? How habitats and species may respond to climate, SLR, and landuse changes BeachesMangrovesMarshOysters Teams of experts used compiled data and their experience to complete an index spreadsheet tool (SIVVA) When? Final report and data due Spring 2015

Assessing the Vulnerability of Flow Alterations

SECAS – Expectations for the Next Two Years Hire a SECAS Coordinator to work with the 6 LCCs and 2 CSCs – Increasing coordination across LCCs and CSCs to enable stitching data and science together Convene a SECAS Leadership Summit in Fall 2016 Produce SECAS Version 1.0

Moving Forward with SECAS GOAL 1: An ecologically connected network of landscapes and seascapes adaptable to global change — such as climate change — with the ability to sustain ecological integrity and health to meet the needs of society at multiple scales. Objective 3: Integrate regional or other scale-specific conservation designs to align and focus conservation action at the Network scale, within available authorities. Example Tactics: Facilitate the design of an ecologically connected network of large geographic regions that support priority natural and cultural resources.

SECAS Conservation Blueprint SECAS is not about a map… …although maps will most assuredly be produced by SECAS. SECAS will facilitate alignment of LCC and CSC science and conservation planning, ensuring an ecologically connected network across the southeast.

The Future is Not Always Clear… It’s not about predicting the future. It’s about anticipating the future, and developing smarter, more effective ways to respond. At what point do we decide to take action?

The Future is Not Always Clear… It’s not about predicting the future. It’s about anticipating the future, and developing smarter, more effective ways to respond. At what point do we decide to take action? In 2014, if we can anticipate what 2060 will be like, will we do anything differently?

The Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy: Designing a Future Conservation Landscape for the Southeast