Bits, Atoms, Cells, Gears & Joules The Five Forces Driving the Next Techno-Socio-Economic Revolution Bits, Atoms, Cells, Gears & Joules The Five Forces Driving the Next Techno-Socio-Economic Revolution August 2014 Jeff Wacker Principal Futurist JLWFutures

2 K ONDRATIEFF C YCLES FRENZYERUPTION Technology Diffusion SYNERGY MATURITY Big BangCrash Recovery and Transition Professor Nickolai Kondratieff ( ) Excitement Optimism Thrill Anxiety Denial Fear Desperation Panic Despondency Hope Relief Optimism Euphoria Time Copyright JLWFutures 2014

3 K ONDRATIEFF C YCLES 1771 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION CANAL PANIC 1797 (BRITAIN) Diffusion of manufacturing with water power Diffusion of manufacturing with water power Full network of waterways (canals, rivers, oceans) Full network of waterways (canals, rivers, oceans) Development of public companies Development of public companies C YCLE 1: I NDUSTRIAL R EVOLUTION Copyright JLWFutures 2014

4 K ONDRATIEFF C YCLES 1829 STEAM & RAILWAYS RAILWAY PANIC 1847 (BRITAIN) Economies of scale Economies of scale Joint stock companies Joint stock companies Repeal of tariff laws/free trade Repeal of tariff laws/free trade C YCLE 2: S TEAM AND R AILWAYS Copyright JLWFutures 2014

5 K ONDRATIEFF C YCLES 1875 STEEL, ELECTRICITY & HEAVY ENGINEERING GLOBAL COLLAPSES OF THE 1890’S (ARGENTINA, AUSTRALIA, U.S.) Transcontinental rail, steamships and telegraph Transcontinental rail, steamships and telegraph Gold standard, global finance Gold standard, global finance C YCLE 3: S TEEL, E LECTRICITY & H EAVY E NGINEERING Copyright JLWFutures 2014

6 K ONDRATIEFF C YCLES 1908 AUTOMOBILES, OIL & MASS PRODUCTION GREAT CRASH OF 1929 (U.S.) Interstate/international highways and airways Interstate/international highways and airways Welfare state, Bretton Woods, IMF, World Bank Welfare state, Bretton Woods, IMF, World Bank C YCLE 4: A UTOMOBILES, O IL & M ASS P RODUCTION Copyright JLWFutures 2014

7 K ONDRATIEFF C YCLES 1966 INFORMATION & TELECOMMUNICATIONSNASDAQ CRASH 2000 & GLOBAL COLLAPSES (ASIA, ARGENTINA, U.S.) Global digital telecommunications network Global digital telecommunications network Institutional framework, facilitating globalization Institutional framework, facilitating globalization C YCLE 5: I NFORMATION & T ELECOMMUNICATIONS 1966~2016 Copyright JLWFutures 2014

8 K ONDRATIEFF C YCLES C YCLE 6: I NFO T ECH 2, N ANO T ECH, B IO T ECH, R OBO T ECH, E NER T ECH Copyright JLWFutures 2014

9 B IO T ECHNOLOGY Copyright JLWFutures 2014

10 B IO T ECHNOLOGY Unintended Consequences Moral ethics New bioWeapons Copyright JLWFutures 2014

11 N ANO T ECHNOLOGY Copyright JLWFutures 2014

12 N ANO T ECHNOLOGY Potential toxicity Binary nanoWeapons Raw materials Availability Grey Goo molecular manufacturing Copyright JLWFutures 2014

13 E NERGY T ECHNOLOGY Copyright JLWFutures 2014

14 E NERGY T ECHNOLOGY Unrestricted growth New source for weapons Moderate jobs outlook Thermopower waves Traveling Wave Nuclear Power Multiferroic Alloy Copyright JLWFutures 2014

15 R OBOTICS T ECHNOLOGY Copyright JLWFutures 2014

16 R OBOTICS T ECHNOLOGY Role of humans? New battlefields Negative jobs outlook Modeling & Simulation ExpertSystems Copyright JLWFutures 2014

17 R OBOTICS T ECHNOLOGY Desensitivity to War xRobot “Terminator” Negative Jobs Outlook Copyright JLWFutures 2014

18 I NFORMATION T ECHNOLOGY 2 Copyright JLWFutures 2014

19 I NFORMATION T ECHNOLOGY 2 Memristors & Neuromorphic Computing Photonic Computing 2D to 3D Architectures Quantum Computing Copyright JLWFutures 2014

20 I NFORMATION T ECHNOLOGY 2 Privacy! TMI Dependence Loss of Control Cyber-Warfare Copyright JLWFutures 2014

21 I NCREASED C HALLENGES /O PPORTUNITY F ROM : I NFORMATION O VERLOAD S ECURITY C ONCERNS E NVIRONMENTAL D ISRUPTIONS G LOBALIZATION G EOPOLITICAL E VENTS S USTAINABILITY R ESOURCE M ANAGEMENT E NERGY C OSTS R EGULATIONS R APID S OCIAL S HIFTS C HALLENGES & O PPORTUNITIES Copyright JLWFutures 2014

22 Recommended Reading on these topics Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think* - Peter Diamandis & Steven Kotler Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology will Change Civilization - K. Eric Drexler Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer and More Dangerous World- James D. Miller Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy - Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee The Age of Context: Mobile, Sensors, Data and the Future of Privacy - Robert Scoble & Shel Israel - Newt Gingrich - Newt Gingrich * Read this one if you’re only going to read one - JLW Copyright JLWFutures 2014

23 Q&A Copyright JLWFutures 2014