Strategies for Sustainable Energy Technology Trondheim, 24. november 2003 Kaare Gether and Klaus Vogstad Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Energy and Process Technology

K.GETHER2/12 Basic System Dynamics Structure (Following J. W. Forrester, 1961:67)

K.GETHER3/12 Renewables (central) Renewables (local) Non renewables oil ng coal nuclear refining reforming generating electrolysis h transp ng transp lq transp el transp appliances transp RFC FC heating el.transf. lq burner ng burner lq RFC ng RFC windbio hot water transp FC lq st ng st h st ref/h st El el.transf. hydro wind sun electrolysis lq ICE hyb ng ICE let lgt lht stationary sun lq ICE ng ICE hyb h ICE

K.GETHER4/12 Path Dependence and Lock-in

K.GETHER5/12 Energy Flows RegionalGlobal Non renewables Renewables Conversion Bulk Transport Infra- structure Transport Sector Stationary Sector Renewables

K.GETHER6/12 Renewables (central) Renewables (local) Non renewables oil ng coal nuclear refining reforming generating electrolysis h transp ng transp lq transp el transp appliances transp RFC FC heating el.transf. lq burner ng burner lq RFC ng RFC windbio hot water transp FC lq st ng st h st ref/h st El el.transf. hydro wind sun electrolysis lq ICE hyb ng ICE let lgt lht stationary sun lq ICE ng ICE hyb h ICE

K.GETHER7/12 Transition to Large Scale Use of Hydrogen Energy systems in transition. (Causality) Value chains. (Equal comparison). Barriers and bottlenecks. Meet end-user need) Competition based. (Meet end-user need) System dynamics. (System thinking and modeling for a complex world) Focus: how to achieve change, and effects of change. Required policy making to develop a client base for hydrogen investments. (Sustainability) Business opportunities (identify feed forward mechanisms). Choices of technology and infrastructure under path dependence, feedback and nonlinearity

K.GETHER8/12 Renewables (central) Renewables (local) Non renewables oil ng coal nuclear refining reforming generating electrolysis h transp ng transp lq transp el transp appliances transp RFC FC heating el.transf. lq burner ng burner lq RFC ng RFC windbio hot water transp FC lq st ng st h st ref/h st El el.transf. hydro wind sun electrolysis lq ICE ng ICE let lgt lht stationary sun Learning Curves Electric drive train Wind Sun Fuel Cell lq ICE hyb ng ICE hyb

K.GETHER9/12 Renewables (central) Renewables (local) Non renewables oil ng coal nuclear refining reforming generating electrolysis h transp ng transp lq transp el transp appliances transp RFC FC heating el.transf. lq burner ng burner lq RFC ng RFC windbio hot water transp FC lq st ng st h st ref/h st El el.transf. hydro wind sun electrolysis lq ICE hyb ng ICE let lgt lht stationary sun lq ICE ng ICE hyb Emissions

K.GETHER10/12 Path dependence and value over time VALUE TIME Decision 2003

K.GETHER11/12 Main points: Including positive feedbacks when considering how to prepare for the future, altogether alter the understanding of policy measures and policy making It is possible to include positive feedbacks in complex modeling It is not a choice whether to model or not, we all have a mental model of how things work. The choice is how we model. Appropriate methodology should be applied for the problem at hand.