An Overview of CPC’s Development Branch Arun Kumar Chief, Development Branch Climate Prediction Center.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Personal Briefing Page Scott C. Handel NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC.

Advertisements

Prioritized New Research Initiative on Climate Change in Japan - under a new phase of the Science and Technology Basic Plan – Hiroki Kondo Special Advisor.

THE USE OF REMOTE SENSING DATA/INFORMATION AS PROXY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA Gilbert O Ouma IGAD Climate Applications and Prediction.

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following SSWs DynVar/SNAP Workshop, Reading, UK, April 2013 Michael Sigmond (CCCma) John Scinocca, Slava Kharin.

Climate-Change Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting Reggina Cabrera NOAA/National Weather Service Eastern Region, Chief Hydrologic Services Division.

New Local Climate Outlook Products from the NWS Andrea Bair NOAA/NWS Western Region Headquarters Climate Services Program Manager.

Objects Basic Research (Hypotheses and Understanding) Applied Research (Applications and Tools) Joint effects of ENSO and SST anomalies in different ocean.

Progress Towards a Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System for the Southeast (SEACOOS) Harvey Seim / University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill University.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential for the PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind/Wave Workshop Jim Laver August.

Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs 1.

© Crown copyright Met Office CLIVAR Climate of the 20 th Century Project Adam Scaife, Chris Folland, Jim Kinter, David Fereday January 2009.

CPC Forecasts: Current and Future Methods and Requirements Ed O’Lenic NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center Camp Springs, Maryland ,

Barcelona, 2015 Ocean prediction activites at BSC-IC3 Virginie Guemas and the Climate Forecasting Unit 9 February 2015.

Influence of intraseasonal surface wind variability on ENSO in CFS predictions Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, Arun Kumar, Yan Xue Climate Prediction Center,

Products and Services for Disaster Mitigation and Economic Enhancement Edward O’Lenic, Chief Climate Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center.

1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Inter-comparison and Validation Task Team Breakout discussion.

CDC Cover. NOAA Lab roles in CCSP Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Research Elements Element 3. Atmospheric Composition Aeronomy.

A Comparison of the Northern American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to an Ensemble of Analyses Including CFSR Wesley Ebisuzaki 1, Fedor Mesinger 2, Li Zhang.

1 Coupled Modeling for Seasonal to Interannual Presented By Suru Saha (EMC/NCEP) Contributors: Jack Woollen, Daryl Kleist, Dave Behringer, Steve Penny,

GIS Tools at Climate Prediction Center April 20, 2010 Brad Pugh, CPC.

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA National Weather Service Climate Services Marina Livezey (Timofeyeva) OFCM 2nd Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological.

2 SMAP Applications in NOAA - Numerical Weather & Seasonal Climate Forecasting 24-Hours Ahead Atmospheric Model Forecasts Observed Rainfall 0000Z to 0400Z.

Toward Probabilistic Seasonal Prediction Nir Krakauer, Hannah Aizenman, Michael Grossberg, Irina Gladkova Department of Civil Engineering and CUNY Remote.

Climate Prediction Center An Overview Dr. Wayne Higgins Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP Briefing to Dan Walker Chief, CASD CPO November 12, 2009.

CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate.

Ben Kirtman University of Miami-RSMAS Disentangling the Link Between Weather and Climate.

NOAA Research Overview: Climate Variability NOAA Climate Research: Climate Variability Drought in Great Plains, ca California floods during 1998.

Report to WGSIP on VACS activities. Tanzania Workshop The Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) hosted the Variability of the African Climate System (VACS)

Objects Basic Research (Hypotheses and Understanding) Applied Research (Applications and Tools) AO/NAO A10 (subseasonal to decadal time scales)AO/NAO Explore.

U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Subseasonal.

ENSO Update Michelle L’Heureux Team Members: Mike Halpert, Wanqiu Wang, Yan Xue, Gerry Bell, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Vern Kousky, Wayne Higgins, and Arun Kumar NOAA.

1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 October 2010 Ocean Observations and Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center NCEP.

National Weather Service Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr. Director, National Weather Service NOAA Science Advisory Board November 6, 2001.

Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales A. Giannini (IRI) R. Saravanan (NCAR) and P. Chang (Texas A&M) IRI for climate.

Ocean Analysis and Reanalysis: Phil Arkin, ESSIC, University of Maryland Background Concept and Implementation Issues.

1 Proposal for a Climate-Weather Hydromet Test Bed “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP NAME Forecaster.

Multi-Model Ensembles for Climate Attribution Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NOAA Acknowledgements: Bhaskar Jha; Marty Hoerling; Ming Ji & OGP;

1 An Overview of NOAA Climate Prediction Center Briefing for NWA, St. Cloud, MN March 9, 2010 Anthony Artusa Meteorologist, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate.

Winter Weather Forecast How Windy Will in Be? Professor Cliff Mass University of Washington.

Climate Prediction Center: Challenges and Needs Jon Gottschalck and Arun Kumar with contributions from Dave DeWitt and Mike Halpert NCEP Production Review.

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Regional Climate, Extremes, and Impacts presented by Andrew Wittenberg NOAA/GFDL Regional temperature trends, and the 2012 MAM warm anomaly over the eastern.

Winter Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 06/07 14 November 2006 Kirby Cook. NOAA/National Weather Service Acknowledgement: Climate Prediction Center.

14 Apr 2010SASCOF-I Meeting Apr 2010 PREDICTION OF MONSOON 2010 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Seasonal Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon.

Latin American and Caribbean Flood and Drought Monitor Colby Fisher, Nathaniel Chaney, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood Princeton University … with support.

1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 28 October 2010 Challenge: What Impact would a 30% reduction in ship time… SI Forecasting Perspective Arun Kumar.

Climate Prediction Center Monitoring Products Dr. Gerald Bell Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

1 Overview of CPC’s Operations Branch February 11, 2011 Ed O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center.

WWRP 1 THORPEX-WCRP Collaborations and other climate relevant activities of the WWRP WCRP/JSC31 WMO/WWRP/THORPEX

1. 2 NOAA’s Mission To describe and predict changes in the Earth’s environment. To conserve and manage the Nation’s coastal and marine resources to ensure.

Climate Mission Outcome A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient.

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center Dr. Lee Tryhorn NOAA Climate Literacy Workshop April 2010 NOAA Northeast Regional Climate.

1/39 Seasonal Prediction of Asian Monsoon: Predictability Issues and Limitations Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center

Climate Prediction: Products, Research, Outreach Briefing for NOAA’s Science Advisory Board March 19, 2002 National Weather Service Climate Prediction.

1 An Overview of NOAA Climate Prediction Center Briefing for Rita Colwell November 20, 2007 Mike Halpert, Deputy Director

Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar

Challenges of Seasonal Forecasting: El Niño, La Niña, and La Nada

Course Evaluation Now online You should have gotten an with link.

Drought Research and Outreach at CIG

Course Evaluation Now online You should have gotten an with link.

Edwin Gerber (New York University)

Course Evaluation Now online You should have gotten an with link.

An Overview of CPC Climate Service Activities

Decadal Climate Forecasting Project

presenter (affiliation)

WMO El Niño/La Niña Update

Ongoing and Planned Activities in Sub-seasonal Forecasting at the NCEP

Global Observational Network and Data Sharing

Presentation transcript:

An Overview of CPC’s Development Branch Arun Kumar Chief, Development Branch Climate Prediction Center

2 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Current Activities Global and Regional Climate AnalysisGlobal and Regional Climate Analysis Real-time Global Climate MonitoringReal-time Global Climate Monitoring Forecast Tool Development/ ImprovementForecast Tool Development/ Improvement Predictions, Verifications, and Expert AssessmentsPredictions, Verifications, and Expert Assessments Climate Diagnostics and AttributionClimate Diagnostics and Attribution Applied ResearchApplied Research Outreach and ServiceOutreach and Service International ActivitiesInternational Activities Climate Test-BedClimate Test-Bed

3 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Global and Regional Climate Analysis –Maintain and monitor various atmospheric and oceanic real-time climate analyses systems (R1, R2, NARR, GODAS) –Disseminates associated datasets to customers and partners –Analyses are either model based or objective –The analysis efforts are the backbone for real-time global climate monitoring

4 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans SSH HC SST

5 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans ENSO

6 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface Droughts

7 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface Surface Temperature Rainfall Soil Moisture

8 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere Variability Storm Tracks Teleconnections

9 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere MJO

10 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Stratosphere SSW Total Ozone Ozone Hole Trends

11 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Assessments ENSO Diagnostics Discussion

12 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Assessments Climate Forecast System

13 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Climate Diagnostics and Attribution

14 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Applied Research –Developing improved analyses Enhancing data bases (data archeology)Enhancing data bases (data archeology) Quality control and analysis proceduresQuality control and analysis procedures Consistency among analyses for different variablesConsistency among analyses for different variables New objectively analyzed fieldsNew objectively analyzed fields –Improving forecast tools Multi-model ensemble techniquesMulti-model ensemble techniques DroughtDrought Bias correction techniquesBias correction techniques Forecast consolidation techniquesForecast consolidation techniques Empirical forecast tools (e.g., MJO and ENSO composites; teleconnections;…)Empirical forecast tools (e.g., MJO and ENSO composites; teleconnections;…)

15 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Applied Research –Understanding predictability for various time- scales MJO predictability and the influence of air-sea interactionMJO predictability and the influence of air-sea interaction Sources and estimates of associated predictability (e.g., sea-ice, climate trends;…)Sources and estimates of associated predictability (e.g., sea-ice, climate trends;…) Weather-Climate connection: Impact of LF variability on storm tracks, etc.Weather-Climate connection: Impact of LF variability on storm tracks, etc. –Developing new products Monitoring of ENSO heat budgetMonitoring of ENSO heat budget Objective drought outlookObjective drought outlook

16 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Summary Real-time climate analysis and monitoring products generated by the Development Branch are used extensively worldwideReal-time climate analysis and monitoring products generated by the Development Branch are used extensively worldwide Analysis products maintained by the Development Branch, e.g., R1, R2, NARR, rainfall, have a wide audience and user baseAnalysis products maintained by the Development Branch, e.g., R1, R2, NARR, rainfall, have a wide audience and user base Real-time briefings provided by the Development Branch are a reliable source of evolving global climate conditionsReal-time briefings provided by the Development Branch are a reliable source of evolving global climate conditions Applied research efforts in the Development Branch focuses on advancing NOAA’s climate analysis, monitoring, and prediction effortsApplied research efforts in the Development Branch focuses on advancing NOAA’s climate analysis, monitoring, and prediction efforts