UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin.

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Presentation transcript:

UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin

Why are we here? Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates

Why UKIP was a long-time coming (and may have a long way to run)

Decline of the British Working Class, Source: BES ; BSA ; class measured using Goldthorpe–Heath 5-category class schema

Rise of the Educated Middle Class, Source: British Election Studies ; British Social Attitudes

Class and educational divides in EU support... Source: British Social Attitudes

Immigration divides us by class, education, and generation... Source: British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey

The working class feel more left out than ever before Source: British Social Attitudes

What all this means: UKIP are mobilising the “Left behind”

So who are the UKIP voters?

UKIP’s base: male, pale, stale, and struggling

The Brussels Plus: Not just single-issue Eurosceptics..

They are very unhappy about both parties’ performance on immigration and the crisis…

....and very hostile to both parties’ leaders

UKIP Support among Different Groups : “Doubling Down” on the Left Behind Strong Eurosceptics Weak Eurosceptics Europhiles Populism - dissatisfied with democracy Blair: Brown: Cameron I: Cameron II: Share of sample Immigration - rate importance of asylum 10 out of 10 Blair: Brown: Cameron I: Cameron II: Share of the sample151611

Labour’s 2015 problem

UKIP is recruiting mainly former Cons…

…from the dissatisfied groups Labour ought to be reconnecting with

Labour’s post 2010 rebound is strongest where UKIP’s appeal is weakest

Labour’s 2020 problem SeatIncumbent 1.Clacton Con 2. RhonddaLab 3. Blaenau Gwent Lab 4. Kingston-upon-Hull EastLab 5. EastingtonLab 6. KnowsleyLab 7. BarnsleyLab 8. AberavonLab 9. Merthyr Tydfil and RhymeneyLab 10. Doncaster North Lab 11. Liverpool Walton Lab 12. Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Lab 13. Great Grimsby Lab 14. Ashfield Lab 15. Bolsover Lab 16. Boston and Skegness Con 17. Cynon Valley Lab 18. Wentworth and Dearne Lab 19. Redcar LD 20. Houghton and Sunderland South Lab

Incumbent party, top 100 UKIP-leaning seats

What we just said in far