1. Where will the parties do well and badly in 2015?
Stephen Fisher
University of Oxford

2. Changes in Scotland very different from England and Wales
Averaging wave 3 BES data at the constituency level to analyse how uniform the changes are since 2010
Changes in Scotland very different from England and Wales

3. Lib Dems likely to do worse than uniform swing would suggest
Labour in danger of doing well in former Lib Dem strongholds at expense of key marginals

4. UKIP doing worse in more urban areas, where there are fewer pensioners and more young people and graduates,
and more EU immigrants
UKIP doing better in more Conservative areas and about average in Con-Lab and Lab-Con marginals