WP3: Fixing RES-H/C targets Lukas Kranzl, Andreas Müller RES-H Policy Meeting, March 2009

2 Structure of the discussion Objectives, time table, task structure and methodology of this WP Structure of the target report Preliminary results –AT (AT, Upper Austria, Styria?) –GR –LT –NL –PL –UK Discussion and next steps

3 Determine options for 2020/2030 RES-H/C targets and their trajectories in the seven target countries/regions. Involve national stakeholder and in particular policy makers in that process Split up the target into different energy sources, technologies and sectors Assist member states in setting up sector- specific targets in the national action plans. WP3 - objective

4 Methodology Data basis and scientific ground for target setting RES H/C targets Stakeholder policy process target setting Existing scenarios Top-down approach Bottom-up approach Policy assessment Economic modeling results Revised targets Policy workshops WP 3WP 4

Analysis of existing RES-H/C scenarios and potentials 3.2. Top-down assessment of RES-H/C targets 3.3. Bottom-up approach to determine RES-H/C targets 3.4. Production of target reports 3.5. Stakeholder dialogue Task overview

6 Timetable To discuss: does the timetable fit to the national progress of the renewable action plans? Suggestion: stick to this time frame and include the target setting issue also in the further workshops (of WP4) and maybe revise target based on WP4 results and workshop discussions

7 Target report for each region (~ 50 pages each, national language and english) Month 10 (July 2009) Synthesis report of consultation process for each region (~10 pages each, national language and english) Month 9 (June 2009) Documentation of the consultation workshops (~5 pages each, national language and english) Month 10 (July 2009) Deliverables / Output

8 Review of regional / national / European studies Output: Dataset to assess possible RES-H/C market developments (BAU/policy scenarios?) Task 3.1 existing scenarios and potentials

9 Task 3.1 previously scheduled steps Each partner from target regions provides a list of relevant regional / national / (European) literature and scenarios with a few words describing the content (14 November 08) EEG (together with ISI) provides consolidated list and first draft of data structure (28 November 08) Each partner fills in scenario data into data structure (16 January 09) Documentation of literature / scenario review for the target report (each partner, end of January 09) All partners comment on the outcomes of task 3.1 (end of February 09) Current situation: only results from a few partners up to now => presentations and discussions later today

10 Task 3.1 methodology Structure: file “RES-H WP3 literature overview data template.xls” Basic Structure for literature/scenario review: Time series for various scenarios and/or potentials: –RES-H/C generation by energy sources (biomass, solar, geothermal, ambient heat) –RES-H/C generation by sectors (residential (single dwelling, multiple dwelling, …), service sector, public buildings, industry, …) –RES-H/C generation by technologies (type of biomass boilers, type of solar collectors …) –Energy demand and efficiency improvements (building insulation), if available –Documentation of assumptions, methodology, background data

11 Task 3.2 top-down Idea: in Task 3.1. different studies with different methodologies are the basis for the analysis. In this task: common methodology from a single model. Green-X model runs include scenarios for RES- H/C in each member state until Use previous model runs of Green-X to get reference scenarios for RES-H/C development.

12 Task 3.2 Working progress / next steps Presentation of Green-X results (EEG, ISI, later today) Document Green-X results in the target report (first draft March 09, final version for the meeting in May 09) Discussion with partners (March, April 09)

13 Task 3.2 Top-down Exemplary Green-X results for EU-27 Source: Green-X Simulations, Futures-E, Scenario: „strengthened policies“ (~20% 2020 target scenario) (in this way results will be presented for each target region)

The Green-X approach: Dynamic cost-resource curves & a detailed energy policy representation Task 3.2 methodology Mid-term (up to 2020) realisable potentials in year n & corresponding costs for RES at country level by RES technology (subdivided into several bands) Realisable yearly potentials in year n Deployment in year n and corresponding costs & benefits band 1 costs potential band 2 band 3 … costs potential costs potential Technology diffusion (‘S-curve’) (non-economic barriers by technology/country) Technological change ((global) learning curves by technology) Potential Cost (efficiency) Energy policy (energy prices, RES support) e.g. Feed-in tariffs, Investment incentives, Tendering schemes, Quotas with tradable green certificates P FIT n+1

15 Green-X results EU-27 „strengthened policy“ RES developmentRES share IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!!

16 Green-X results EU-27 „strengthened policy“ RES-H development (technologies) RES-H development (sectors)

17 Task 3.3. bottom-up Idea: carry out a detailed bottom-up estimation of achievable potentials (including diffusion restrictions) as a basis for the target setting process Synergetic benefit: set up data base for modelling in WP4 For buildings: integration of the results in the simulation tool INVERT For industrial processes: ECN- RES-HC model

18 Task 3.3 Working progress Structure for regional/national data requirement (EEG, (ISI), 28 November 08) (ECN???) Data collection (each target region partner, January 09) (partly completed, partly not yet started?!) Suggestion for default data (investment costs, energy prices etc) by EEG, ECN, ISI April 09; to be discussed until meeting in May Previous schedule: Integration of regional data into models INVERT and RES-HC model (EEG, ISI, ECN, March 09) Revised schedule: Structured data base of bottom up data and detailed analysis results until meeting in May (EEG, ISI, ECN together with partners) Result documentation (EEG, (ISI), ECN, May / June 09)

19 Task 3.3 Methodology Solar thermal: –Available roof area –Solar radiation data –Achievable solar fractions for different applications Biomass: –Available biomass potentials (e.g. EEA 2006) –Penetration rates in different types of buildings and applications Heat pumps: –Buildings with high efficiency and low temperature heating systems –Number of those buildings (currently and dynamic) –(Large scale industrial heat pumps: penetration rates) For all systems: max. diffusion rates and current state

20 Task 3.3 Data requirement Detailed data requirement in the files: RES-H bottom-up data requirement.doc RES-H bottom-up data template.xls (building data)

Bottom up decision analyzing Model: Invert

22 Invert Model Simulation tool that can describes the medium and long behavior of the space heating demand and supply The current model is based on: –Altener Project (Altener contract /Z/02-094) „Investing in RES & RUE technologies: Models for saving public money (INVERT) Analyses has been done for: Germany, Denmark, France, Greece, Austria, Polen and UK –“Optimal Supply of Residential Buildings with Energy Services from Society’s Point-of-view” (Austria) Current Projects: –Intelligent Energy Projekt (EIE/06-214): „Refund individual investments in RES heating systems through direct tax measures – Refund+”, until May, 2009 (Poland, Lithuania) –Federal Environment Agency – Austria, “Energy Scenarios until 2020: Austrian Space heating demand and Supply”, until January 2009, within the EU Monitoring mechanism –Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, “Germanys heat law: Supplementary and detailed analyses of different design possibilities”, until mid 2008

23 Invert: Energy Demand and consumption Use full energy demand: Bottom-up modeling of the heat demand by describing the building envelope (building geometry, U-values, climate data, …) Energy consumption: Depends on Energy demand, heating systems (type and age), service factors (which do describe the difference between theoretical energy demand and effective energy demand) Calculating the useful energy demand Description of buildings Description of buildings Geometry data Thermal quality of building envelope Climate data Useful energy demand Calculating the final energy consumption Useful energy demand Service factors Described as function of: heating system, specific useful energy demand building type Heating system type, age Final energy consumption

24 Wird von mir kommen Invert: Decision algorithm

25 INPUT LUUK: Methodology and data requirement for industrial heat sector! Kurze Folie (First preliminary results for NL or from previous projects???)

26 Task 3.3 Data requirement Industry

27 Task 3.4 target reports Draft report: Synthesis of literature/scenario review (3.1), top-down (3.2) and bottom-up (3.3) Final report include outcomes of the stakeholder dialogue Target reports include technology and sector specific targets

28 Task 3.4 working progress Draft target report structure (EEG, November 08) Literature review chapter (each target country partner, March 09) Green-X results (EEG/ISI: draft in March, final in May 09) Draft target report (all target country / region partners, April 09) Comments of all partners on draft target reports (May 09) Final target reports (all target country / region partners, July 09)

29 Task 3.4 target report Structure for the target report: 1.Methodology 2.Review of existing scenarios and literature 3.Top-Down-Approach: Green-X results 4.Bottom-up-approach General approach and methodology Solar thermal Biomass heating Geothermal 5.Conclusions from WP4 (optional) 6.Comparative analysis of literature, top-down and bottom-up approach 7.Stakeholder discussion process 8.Synthesis: RES-H/C targets 9.References 10.Annexes

30 Target report structure: Do you agree? We are all supposed to use these country-target reports in the stakeholder consultation and the workshop(s)!

31 Task 3.5 stakeholder dialogue Stakeholder consultation: input / comments on findings of tasks 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 and draft target report (web-based questionnaire) Consultation workshops in each target region: reports on the consultation and the draft reports will be circulated at least 14 days before the workshop Target groups: –Policy makers (including representatives of national action plans for RES-directive) –Energy agencies –Companies / associations representing RES-H/C technologies –Researchers

32 Task 3.5 working progress Stakeholder information (all partners November 08) Preparation of questionnaire (has it really to be web based?!?) –Draft structure: EEG, April 09 –Web implementation: OEKO/CRES?, Mid of April 09 –Regional specification: each target region partner, End of April 09 Consultation process: each target region partner, May 09 Synthesis report of consultation: each target region partner, Mid of June 09 Consultation workshops: each target region partner, June 09 (July 09)

33 Preliminary results: AT (Styria???)

34 AT – Styria (- Upper Austria) Clarification of the role of the different regional levels: Stakeholder consultation: Austrian level considering in particular Styrian stakeholders, too Target Workshop June 09: national level Workshop end of 09 / beginning 10 in Styria: target setting + qualitative policy analysis Workshop June 10 national level: combining qualitative and quantitative analyses of policy instruments WP 2 country reports: national with Styrian specific parts WP 3 target report: national level (because renewable action plan is on the national level), maybe short discussion regarding Styria WP 4 working document qualitative analysis of instruments: national or regional level, depending on the type of instrument (difference to Upper Austria??? => common report for whole Austria on the national and regional level?) WP4 summary quantitative assessment policy options: focused on the national level with some discussions regarding Styria

35 Green-X results AT „strengthened policy“ RES developmentRES share IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!!

36 Green-X results AT „strengthened policy“ RES-H development (technologies) RES-H development (sectors)

37 Literature review AT RES-H/C 2030 EEG 2007, Renewable heating and cooling 2030, accelerated scenario BAP 2006 Proposal for an Austrian biomass action plan (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water management) Heating 2020 EEG 2009, Energy scenarios up to 2020: heating demand of small scale consumers; WAM-Scenario SERI 2009 Renewable energy in Austria: Modelling of different scenarios up to 2020, DAM-Scenario Tech-Scen 2050 EEG 2008, Scenarios of economic market opportunities of different energy technologies up to 2050, alternative support scheme scenario Bio 2050 EEG 2008, Strategies for the utilization of bioenergy potentials in Austria, heat and power high price scenario ESTIF 2008 Potential of solar thermal in Europe, RDP

38 Literature review AT Solar thermal

39 Literature review AT Biomass To be included in the target report: - small scale/large scale; - grid/non-grid; - pellets/wood chips/wood logs; -… Crucial: clarification about included biomass fractions (e.g. black liquor!) and sectors (e.g. industry)

40 Literature review AT Ambient heat (Heat pumps)

41 Literature review AT, total, sectors

Bottom-up data and analysis: Building stock

43 Number of buildings (with space heating) Austria and the target regions: Upper Austria and Styria Buildings in 2005 Expected buildings in 2020 AustriaUpper AustriaStyriaAustria 1000 Buildings (urban share) Small residential buildings1408 (34%)280 (17%)260 (15%)1548 Apartment buildings176 (70%)31 (55%)28 (50%)192 Private and public service sector208 (40%)35 (35%)36 (25%)230 Bottom-up data and analysis: Austrian building stock

44 Bottom-up data and analysis: Austrian building stock Apartment units per building Communities with More than inhabitants Apartment units per building Communities with 5000 – inhabitants Apartment units per building Communities with less than 5000 inhabitants Predominating residential building type strongly depends on the community size

45 Spatial distribution of citizens –50% of the Population do live in regions with less than inhabitants Bottom-up data and analysis: Austrian building stock

46 Bottom-up data and analysis: Austrian building stock Buildings sort by construction period (2005) –70% constructed before 1980 (buildings to be renovated until 2020 –No major differences between target regions: Upper Austria, Styria and Austria

Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat

48 Solar thermal energy is widely spread in Austria (AEE INTEC, 2007) Includes double counting’s Subsidies in 2007 for solar thermal applications: ~50 Mio. €

49 Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat Available roof area: –Novak et al. (2000) IEA PVPS programme Task 7: 159 km² roof area in areas with sufficient solar radiation and suitable direction –EEG: Bottom up analysis based on buildings with low temperature demand: 83 km² (2005), 90 km² (2020) Solar radiation: less than 1100 kWh/m² in most populated regions

50 Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat Achievable solar fractions for different applications Solar coverage Spec. yield Small resid. buildings Water heating (~6 m²)50%–60%350 kWh/m² „Combi Systems“, existing buildings, renovated (20 m²) 20%–30%270 kWh/m² New buildings (20 m²)25%–30%270 kWh/m² Apartment buildings „Combi Systems“ (3-6 m²/ apartment)15%–25%300 kWh/m²

51 Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat Main underlying assumptions –70% of new buildings after 2010 do have solar thermal space heating: Solar coverage: –30% small res. buildings (25% in 2010, 35% in 2020) –20% apartment buildings (15% in 2010, 25% in 2020) –20% of new buildings after 2010 will equipped with solar thermal water heating Solar coverage: –70% of energy demand for hot water supply

52 Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat Main underlying assumptions 55% of buildings constructed between 1980 – 1990: (those are the buildings which do change their heating system only, Novak et al. 2000, buildings stock 55% if buildings suitable solar radiation) Solar coverage: –20% small res. buildings (20% in 2010, 25% in 2020) –10% apartment buildings (10% in 2010, 10% in 2020) 55% of buildings which will be renovated within the time period from 2010 – 2020 (Renovation rate: 1,5%p.a.) Solar coverage: –25% small res. buildings: (20% in 2010, 30% in 2020) –15% apartment buildings: (10% in 2010, 20% in 2020) 55% of buildings that change their heating system will equipped with solar thermal water heating (Replacement rate, heating system only: 1,5%p.a.) Solar coverage: 60% of energy demand for hot water

53 Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat Achievable solar thermal energy contribution – – Total solar thermal energy supply 2020: 15 PJ Small resid. B. Apartmen t B. Service Sector Total Existing systems (2010) ~3.0 PJ0.5PJ 4 PJ Renovated buildings after PJ0.4 PJ0.7 PJ2.8 PJ Buildings 1980 – 2002 (change heating system only) 1.9 PJ0.4 PJ0.9 PJ3.2 PJ Existing buildings (Solar water heating 0.3 PJ0.2 PJ 0.6 PJ New buildings after PJ0.6 PJ2.0 PJ4.5 PJ All buildings8.8 PJ2.1 PJ4.3 PJ15.2 PJ 250 out of 680 Mio. m²

Bottom-up data and analysis: Heat pumps

55 Bottom-up data and analysis: Heat pumps Current market situation Sales increased significantly within the last year HP for DHW for space heating Historical installation

56 Bottom-up data and analysis: Heat pumps Heat pumps do depend on low temperature heat distribution system (floor heating) Heat source has to be available: possibility for drilling, available space for horizontals heat collectors Upcoming national buildings regulation code (OIB Richtlinie 6) demands an annual average efficiency of higher than 4 -> difficult to achieve (especially with air – water heat pump systems)

57 Bottom-up data and analysis: Heat pumps Achievable COP for different applications –Hot water production: 2.4 – 2.7 (60°C) –Space heating only: Air-Water: 3.5 – 3.9 (35°C), 2.3 – 2.7 (55°C) Sole-Water: 5.2 – 5.6 (35°C), 2.8 – 3.3 (55°C) –Combined systems: Air-Water: 3.1 – 3.5 (35°C), 2.1 – 2.5 (55°C) Sole-Water: 3.4 – 3.9 (35°C), 2.6 – 3.1 (55°C)

58 Bottom-up data and analysis: Heat pumps Main underlying assumptions –Floor heating, low temp. heat distribution system: 30% of buildings constructed between 1992 and % of retrofitted buildings after % of new constructed buildings after 2010 –Availability of ambient heat source: 75% in rural areas (70% existing buildings) 25% in urban areas (5% existing buildings) –Annual average efficiency of heat pumps 4 (3.5 existing buildings)

59 Bottom-up data and analysis: Heat pumps Achievable ambient energy contribution – – Total ambient energy supply 2020: 15 PJ Small resid. B. Apartmen t B. Service Sector Total Existing systems (2010) ~3.5 PJ0.5 PJ 4.5 PJ Renovated buildings after PJ0.2 PJ0.6 PJ2.0 PJ Buildings 1990 – 2002 (change heating system only) 1.6 PJ0.3 PJ0.7 PJ2.6 PJ New buildings after PJ0.7 PJ3.1 PJ6.2 PJ All buildings8.6 PJ1.7 PJ4.9 PJ15.3 PJ

Bottom-up data and analysis: Biomass heating

Forestry biomassInustrial biomass Agricultural biomass Waste wood PJ/a GWh/a Bottom-up data and analysis: Biomass, AT Dynamic biomass potentials, Austria (not available for heat only!) Source: Kranzl et al 2008

62 Biomass potentials for heating, AT Depending on: Scenarios for biofuels and biomass CHP Type of fuels and technologies used for biomass heating

63 Bottom up data and analysis: biomass historical data, AT

64 Bottom up data and analysis: biomass historical data, AT

65 Bottom-up data and analysis: biomass Penetration rates for additional biomass heating:

66 Bottom-up data and analysis: biomass heating Achievable biomass energy contribution –Not fully analyzed so far –First results indicate, that for residential buildings a significant increase is difficult to achieve (decreasing heat demand). Increase within a range of 10 – 20 PJ excluding biomass district heat is plausible. –Service sector could increase biomass energy consumption within a range of 20 – 30 PJ.

67

68 WP3 progress: AT What is the state of progress regarding the literature overview? –Mostly completed –Open: Documentation in target report What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? –Preliminary results ready –Open: partly more detailed analyses; documentation in target report What is the status of stakeholder consultation and workshop preparation? –First communication and discussions –Workshop not yet scheduled What is the time schedule for the next steps to be taken with respect to: literature review, bottom-up-data collection, stakeholder consultation, workshop preparation and the target report? –Documentation of literature review and bottom-up data April 09 –Planning of workshop: April 09 –Stakeholder consultation: May / June 09

69 Preliminary results: Upper Austria

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71 WP3 progress: AT Upper Austria What is the state of progress regarding the literature overview? What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? What is the status of stakeholder consultation and workshop preparation? What is the time schedule for the next steps to be taken with respect to: literature review, bottom-up-data collection, stakeholder consultation, workshop preparation and the target report? What are open questions regarding WP3?

72 Preliminary results: GR

73 Green-X results GR „strengthened policy“ RES developmentRES share IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!!

74 Green-X results GR „strengthened policy“ RES-H development (technologies) RES-H development (sectors)

75 Literature review GR

76 Literature review GR

77 Literature review GR

78 Literature review GR

79 Literature review GR

80 WP3 progress: GR What is the state of progress regarding the literature overview? What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? –Missing: Heating systems by buildings type What is the status of stakeholder consultation and workshop preparation? What is the time schedule for the next steps to be taken with respect to: literature review, bottom-up-data collection, stakeholder consultation, workshop preparation and the target report? What are open questions regarding WP3?

81 Preliminary results: LT

82 Green-X results LT „strengthened policy“ RES developmentRES share IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!!

83 Green-X results LT „strengthened policy“ RES-H development (technologies) RES-H development (sectors)

84 WP3 progress: LT What is the state of progress regarding the literature overview? What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? –Missing: Penetration of renewables, climate data What is the status of stakeholder consultation and workshop preparation? What is the time schedule for the next steps to be taken with respect to: literature review, bottom-up-data collection, stakeholder consultation, workshop preparation and the target report? What are open questions regarding WP3?

85 Preliminary results: NL

86 Green-X results NL „strengthened policy“ RES developmentRES share IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!!

87 Green-X results NL „strengthened policy“ RES-H development (technologies) RES-H development (sectors)

88 WP3 progress: NL What is the state of progress regarding the literature overview? What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? –Missing: expected development of the stock/ new buildings, climate data, penetration of renewables What is the status of stakeholder consultation and workshop preparation? What is the time schedule for the next steps to be taken with respect to: literature review, bottom-up-data collection, stakeholder consultation, workshop preparation and the target report? What are open questions regarding WP3?

89 Preliminary results: PL

90 Green-X results PL „strengthened policy“ RES developmentRES share IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!!

91 Green-X results PL „strengthened policy“ RES-H development (technologies) RES-H development (sectors)

92 WP3 progress: PL What is the state of progress regarding the literature overview? What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? –Missing: … What is the status of stakeholder consultation and workshop preparation? What is the time schedule for the next steps to be taken with respect to: literature review, bottom-up-data collection, stakeholder consultation, workshop preparation and the target report? What are open questions regarding WP3?

93 Preliminary results: UK

94 Green-X results UK „strengthened policy“ RES developmentRES share IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!!

95 Green-X results UK „strengthened policy“ RES-H development (technologies) RES-H development (sectors)

96 WP3 progress: UK What is the state of progress regarding the literature overview? What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? –Missing: ??? What is the status of stakeholder consultation and workshop preparation? What is the time schedule for the next steps to be taken with respect to: literature review, bottom-up-data collection, stakeholder consultation, workshop preparation and the target report? What are open questions regarding WP3?

97 General default data Building stock data –Housing statistics in the European Union (2005/2006) –Eurostat? –Ecofys for Eurima, EurACE (2004): Mitigation of CO2 emissions from the building stock ? –??? Biomass potentials: –EEA: „How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment“