Hellenic Forum Athens 6 March 2007 Peter M. Swift

Hellenic Forum FLEET DEVELOPMENT Peter M. Swift

Tanker fleet development m dwt No Assumptions for period until 2009: Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007 Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)

Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt)

Demolition: slowed in recent years (mdwt) Others/NK Bangladesh Pakistan India Taiwan Korea China

Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt) Years

Double-hull percentage rising steadily %

(Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out - an “uncertainty” post 2010 m dwt Assumptions : MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 OPA90

Market development - One scenario

Chemical Carrier Fleet 70% of fleet double hull, almost all of remainder double bottom or double side – average age 11.5 years, Large order book (37% of existing fleet by dwt), Significant changes to MARPOL Annex II from Jan 2007, principally in carriage of veg oils – several uncertainties.

Chemical tanker fleet by hullnumber

Chemical tanker fleet and age distribution m dwt

Reclassification of Annex II products Type of changeReclassified from/toProducts and volumes Re-categorisation of vegoils, soft oils and fats D to IMO type 2, or IMO type 3 with DH meeting operational requirements Palm oil 27 m ts Soybean oil 10 m ts Sunflowerseed 3 m ts+ Other veg oils 3 m ts+ Tallow + fatty acids+ 2 m ts+ Total approximately 50 m ts Other products with no previous requirements on ship type IBC ch. 18 to IMO type 3Methanol 17 m ts MTBE 5.5 m ts UAN 5 m ts MEG/TEG/DEG 5 m ts Methyl ethyl ketone, ethyl acetate 1 m ts Change of ship type requirements IMO type 3 to type 2Xylenes >5 m ts Acrylonitrile <1 m ts No requirementsNo changeMolasses 5 m ts Ethanol 3 m ts

Major exporters of vegetable oils m ts

Further information available at November 2006 The Revisions to MARPOL Annex II (entry into force 1/1/2007) A Practical Guide

Changes in the pipeline Chemical Carriers: Proposals from the Inter-industry Group to amend SOLAS to provide for the application of inert gas to new oil tankers of less than 20,000 DWT and to new chemical tankers.