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Latin American Panel 13-14 September, 2010 Lima, Perú TANKER MARKET Peter M. Swift.

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Presentation on theme: "Latin American Panel 13-14 September, 2010 Lima, Perú TANKER MARKET Peter M. Swift."— Presentation transcript:

1 Latin American Panel 13-14 September, 2010 Lima, Perú TANKER MARKET Peter M. Swift

2 LAP Meeting 2009 Markets

3 LAP Meeting 2010 MARKETS SHORTER Term view

4 LAP Meeting 2009 MARKETS LONGER Term view

5 Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO m dwt Projected tanker fleet development 1992-2013 1. 1.Current orderbook 2. 2.Phase out of all SH tankers by end 2010 number Based on :

6 Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO USD bn Investment Orders for new tankers – USD bn USD m price

7 World oil demand mbd mbd Source. IEA Increase in Middle East, USA, China and ROW*1Q05-4Q11 mbd

8 Tanker Markets Today ? Demand - mid 2008 to mid 2010:Down 0.6% Supply - mid 2008 to mid 2010:Up 19% Demand - mid 2008 to mid 2011:Up 0.8% Supply - mid 2008 to mid 2011:Up 26%

9 Market Forecast !

10 Tanker Markets Today Demand : World oil trade Supply : Ships on Order & Fleet development Tanker market Shipbuilding capacity

11 World Oil Demand vs. GDP Source: Clarksons (September 2009)

12 Orderbook – All ships (>999GT) Source: Clarksons, April 2010 Orderbook Development (All ship types)

13 Tanker Contracting 1996-2010 Source: Clarksons, September 2010

14 Tanker Contracting by Country of Build Source: Clarksons, September 2010

15 Newbuilding Tanker Prices Source: Clarksons, September 2010

16 Tanker Orderbook Development* *Data pertains to end of period and last complete month Source: Clarksons, September 2010

17 Tanker Cancellations 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 VLCCSuezmaxAframaxMR no of vessels 2007200820092010 Source: Clarksons, September 2010

18 Tanker Order Slippage 2009 Vs 2010 Proportion (%) of schedule that did not deliver in 09/10 45 24 20 33 11 30 27 43 19 13 17 15 29 26 21 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 All TankersVLCCSuezmaxAframaxPanamaxMRHandy % not delivered as scheduled 2009 2010 ytd Source: Clarksons, September 2010

19 Tanker Fleet Delivery Schedule 20.0 39.0 40.7 15.0 5.1 2.6 2.9 2.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2010201120122013 deadweight (million) Deliveries (forecast) MINUS Cancellations & SlippageRemovals (forecast) *Includes phase out ideas, 2010 reflects remainder of the year Source: Clarksons, September 2010

20 Tanker Age Profile 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1970-19741975-1979 19801981198219831984198519861987 1988 1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 2008 2009201020112012 2013 2014 no of vessels Handy MR Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC Source: Clarksons, September 2010

21 Average age tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt Based on LRFairplay Years

22 Tanker Fleet Comparisons 84475 18 37 39 20 25 12 17 72 71 70 76 77 59 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 VLCCSuezmaxAframaxPanamaxMRHandy percentage of exisiting fleet (dwt) non-double hullOn OrderBuilt since 2000 *Note that Aframax and Panamax include coated vessels Source: Clarksons, September 2010

23 Where next for Single Hull Tankers ? Trading beyond 2010 ? AustraliaNo ChinaNo EU No Mexico No Romania No S KoreaNo* PhilippinesNo* UAE No* (*No official note sent to IMO yet) BahamasYes BarbadosYes Liberia Yes Marshall Isl.Yes Panama FlagYes Japan Yes SingaporeYes India Yes Hong KongYes** (** Max. 20 years old) Flag/Port State positions re MARPOL 13G trading up to the age of 25 years United States N/A (OPA90)

24 Source: Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO USD/day Average tanker freight rates based on the Baltic rates – until September

25 The uncertainties Global or regional economic stagnation New pipelines Natural and other disasters – e.g. Macondo spill Climate Change legislation – e.g. voluntary or involuntary slower speeds Oil price – floating storage/contango opportunities and inventory levels Eastern Siberian Pacific Ocean Pipeline

26 Shipbuilding output and forecast Source: Worldyards/INTERTANKO Aug 09 m cgt

27 Muchas Gracias Thank you For more information, please visit: www.intertanko.com www.shippingfacts.com www.maritimefoundation.com London, Oslo. Washington, Singapore and Brussels


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