Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) and the Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory (PERAL) USDA, APHIS, PPQ Center for Plant Health Science and Technology Raleigh, North Carolina

Outline Part I: Overview - who we are Part II: Introduction to PRA

Our Mission: …Apply state-of-the-art research and science-based processes to produce high-quality scientific analyses and technical information for identifying and managing pest risks associated with regulatory initiatives for the protection of plant resources of the U.S. and the import and export of agricultural commodities. What we do: The PRA team collects and analyzes scientific information and evidence in response to APHIS needs regarding plant health threats and regulatory concerns associated with plant pests, including insects, mites, fungi, bacteria, nematodes, viruses and related agents, weeds and parasitic plants.

A Glimpse into PERAL’s World

PERAL’s world is populated by: 20 Entomologists 11 Plant Pathologists 2 Ecologists 2 Botanists 1 Statistician 1 Economist 2 Biological Science Technicians 1 Librarian 1 Training Specialist 1 Technical Editor 2 Cooperators 1 IT Specialist 2 Administrative Assistants 2 Assistant Directors 1 Director Total = 50 Staff Robert Griffin, PERAL Director

Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Develop and apply methods that evaluate, predict, or describe pest outbreak or spread, including: GIS Modeling Statistics Economics Commodity RA Organism RA Pathway RA Risk management Export support

Responsibilities Perform pest risk analyses (PRA) Analyze risk-based operational questions Identify and evaluate risk mitigation measures Provide scientific support to facilitate exports Evaluate new pests and imminent threats Research scientific and technical questions Collect and manage pest risk information

Related activities Develop and evaluate analytical approaches and methodologies Analyze offshore pest dynamics Identify data needs for risk-based decision making Develop, maintain, and integrate datasets for risk prediction, modeling, and management Provide leadership to international and regional standard-setting

Collaboration & linkage PPQ Programs (HQ, Regions, Field) ARS (data, research needs, review) Other USDA (OGC, ORACBA, Forest Service) Technical experts (universities, other agencies, international organizations) Stakeholders (States, producers) Offshore counterparts (NPPOs, Centers of Excellence, research orgs) In terms of who actually conducts these PRAs, it can either be USDA PPQ scientists or it can be the country or organization making the request for importation. Because of the overwhelming number of requests received by PPQ (which has lengthened the time frame within which these requests can be answered), if the requestor can conduct the PRA this can help expedite the process. If the requestor does the PRA, then it should be conducted according to the PPQ PRA guidelines (which are included in your notebook and available online). The completed PRAs will then have to be reviewed and accepted by APHIS personnel. Alternatively, instead of conducting the complete PRA, the requestor can provide to PPQ a list of pests known to attack the commodity plant species in the area from which the commodity is to be exported – this will help expedite the PRA process for our personnel.

Projects Long-term: 90 days to several years Typically require a budget Assigned and prioritized by the Agency Ongoing: Operational/functional New Pest Advisory Group Fruit and vegetable import regulations (Q-56) Ad hoc: less than 90 days

2009 Productivity 31 commodity assessments 19 organism assessments 64 new pest (NPAG) assessments 7 pathway and operational assessments 19 collaborative assessments Database mgmt. Capacity building Standard setting

Ad Hoc Projects Tolerance level for Meloidogyne chitwoodi in U.S. potatoes exported into Korea (image: M. chitwoodi symptoms on potato (nematode.unl.edu/melsymp.htm)) Re-evaluation of Mexican ‘Hass’ Avocado pre-harvest orchard sampling for the work plan (image: ‘Hass’ avocado fruit (source: www.avocadocentral.com)) Pest risk map for Sirex noctilio and associated fungus Amylostereum areolatum (image: Sirex woodwasp adults (Sirex noctilio Farbricius) by Paula Klasmer (www.forestryimages.org)) PERAL receives a large number of ad hoc requests. Here are a few examples of ad hoc projects that were completed in 2006. These projects cover a range of objectives.

DoD Projects started in 2009 Wood Packaging with Ammunition to Europe Base movement from Okinawa to Guam Export analysis Prove that untreated wood is low risk Statistically designed sampling Negotiation required Large pathway analysis Multiple pests and multiple pathways Huge data collection challenge Collaboration with other agencies

Capacity Building, Training, and Regulatory Curriculum International training Workshops on risk analysis, pest free & low pest prevalence areas, pest management, etc. Risk Analysis 101 and Risk Analysis Mentoring Program RA 101 training every year (summer) Risk Analysis Mentoring Training (RAMP) training ongoing Regulatory Curriculum at NCSU - Fundamentals of (Pest) Risk Analysis, 1 credit, NCSU - Challenges in Plant Resource Protection, 3 credits, NCSU PERAL is active in teaching commodity pest risk analysis to foreign agriculture officials. PERAL has also developed a regulatory curriculum that has been implemented at NCSU.

Library Services Over 2,500 hard references organized in Library of Congress classification order with electronic catalog and checkout system 17,000 PRAs, in-house publications, and scientific references in searchable electronic format Collections of posters, maps, photographs Lucy Reid PERAL Information Specialist

New Pest Advisory Group (NPAG) Mission: assess exotic plant pests that are new or imminent threats to U.S. agriculture or the environment and recommend appropriate actions for PPQ to take Products: datasheets & reports with recommendations Amaryllis weevil, undescribed genus & species Botryotinia sphaerosperma Achatina fulica

NAPPFAST NCSU-APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting Internet tool for pest prediction and detection Interactive tool kits for building predictive models for insects, pathogens, and weeds On-line national and international weather and climate databases Model output can be graphical or map based for historical periods and climate match View of the NAPPFAST interface showing map viewing capabilities. The map depicts the predicted risk of one or more days suitable for maize wilt infection in North America based upon 10 years of derived soil temperature data. NAPPFAST currently has climate data for all of North America, including Hawaii, with data received from over 3700 weather stations. The system can create model output in the form of graphs from individual or multiple reporting stations or maps at a 10-km2 resolution using the Barnes’ method of interpolation. The predictive maps can be made from 10, 20 or 30 year daily climate data or from selected historical periods over the last 35 years. Maps are zoomable and can be overlaid with reference data including county boundaries, selected crop distributions and interstate highways. The maps can be annotated by the user and printed as a PDF file with supporting documentation. Predictive maps for over 30 pests have been made available at a password protected site including models for many pests on the CAPS 2004 and 2005 target lists. NAPPFAST has been used in the USDA-ERS soybean rust economic evaluations and in the Phytophthora ramorum trace back incidents.

Phytosanitary Alert System (www.pestalert.org) The Phytosanitary Alert System (PAS) is the web-based pest reporting system of the North American Plant Protection Organization (NAPPO) Why CPHST?: PAS is directly in line with CPHST’s mission to identify pathways used by exotic pests and weeds, and to assess the risks posed by these pests CPHST staff input: 2 risk analysts; 35% of their work week

The Global Pest and Disease Database (GPDD) Information provided includes: host range, distribution maps, biology, control, images (provided by UGA), links to related APHIS documents, references, etc. The Global Pest and Disease Database • Need identified in PPQ Safeguarding Review Cooperative Agreement with NCSU initiated in 2003 Archive of exotic pest data specific to PPQ needs (not duplicative of CABI or other resources/compendia) Secure system, roll-based access Currently includes profiles for approx. 1200 pests / 18 data fields per profile Primary users: PPQ managers, analysts, and staff; CAPS Program; State and International cooperators; DHS CBP Linked to OPIS

PART II Introduction to PRA

Initiation Request Prioritization Assignment Time Prerequisites Quarterly One + team Weeks to years

Analysis Comprehensive Pest List Quarantine Pest List Pathway List Pest Analysis Identify Mitigations Formulate Recommendations Literature review, expert and country consultation Optional country consultation

Risk Assessment Risk Management Initiation Identify hazard(s) Estimate the likelihood of occurrence Estimate the magnitude of the consequences Develop conclusions and describe uncertainty Describe the concern which has created the need. Understand the background and expectations. Risk Assessment Mitigation requires assessment Risk requires mitigation Risk Management Develop recommendations and describe uncertainty Evaluate mitigation options for: -Efficacy -Feasibility -Impacts Identify mitigation options Decisionmaking Evaluate recommendations against the current environment and values to select an option.

Risk Assessment Questions What information is available? What quantity and quality of information? What can go wrong (if nothing is done)? What is the likelihood? What is the magnitude of the consequences?

Elements of Pest Risk Assessment Likelihood (X) Associated with host or pathway Escapes certification Survives transit Undetected at entry Provided a favorable environment Able to reproduce/spread Consequences (+) Direct economic or health damage potential Indirect damage potential Environmental damage potential Perceived damage potential (social, political, aesthetic, etc.)

Risk Management Questions What can be done to eliminate or mitigate the hazard? How effective are the options? How feasible are the options? What impacts do the options have? What is the recommended option? What is the level of uncertainty?

Variability and Uncertainty Variability is not reduced with more or better information Uncertainty may be: modelling or measurement errors gaps in information incorrect assumptions

Risk Communication Two-way exchange of information consulting informing explaining or justifying Not for consensus, but understanding Demonstrates openness and concern

Raleigh, North Carolina USA Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory 1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300 Raleigh, North Carolina USA 27606-5202 Tel: +1-919-855-7512 Fax: +1-919-855-7595 http://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/cphst/peral.shtmlhttp:/