Steering Group Meeting Associate Research Fellow Safe & SuRe Towards a New Paradigm for future urban water system in the Steering Group Meeting Maryam Imani Associate Research Fellow 03 October 2013

Outline WP2: Concepts & Terms WP3: Threats & Impacts Aim Resilience A. Important leading questions B. Types of Resilience C. Characteristics and Properties of Resilience D. Resilience Approach Framework WP3: Threats & Impacts Threats classification Impacts

Objective A: vision & Context WP2: Concepts & Terms

It is aimed in WP2 to… Resilience Understand and more clearly define the concept of Resilience as a core characteristic of the emerging paradigm developed in WP1. Robustness Vulnerability Persistence Flexibility Sensitivity Resistance Impact Adaptability Reliability Adaptive capacity Transformation Adaptation Efficiency Sustainability Resilience Mitigation Stability Redundancy

Resilience Resilience Approach Important leading questions Living with Events Resilience is a new key which conducts the efforts towards a less vulnerable system under the current and future unpredicted/predicted adverse events. To manage the system To adapt with changes Command-Control Important leading questions Resilience framework elements What exhibits Resilience (Resilience of what)? Resilience to what? Required actions Preserved qualities

a. Resilience Framework elements Element 2: Quality of Performance Element 4: Event Element 1: System Element 5: Required actions QPmin Element 3: Time

b. What exhibits Resilience (Resilience of what)? Many different kinds of things potentially can exhibit Resilience such as: System: general Technical system: e.g. engineering system Ecosystem Organisation/Institution Enterprise: e.g. socio-technical system, infrastructure system,… Person People + Environment Network ….

c. Resilience to what? Inherent to the idea of Resilience, is the existence of EVENTS that pose a challenge to the on-going well-being of the system. Terms used for these EVENTS (obtained from Literatures): Event, Perturbation, Disturbance, Disruption, Shock, Loss, Crisis, Emergency situation, Emergent event, Threat, Stressor, Anomaly, Change, Failure. Resilience to Event, Resilience to threat, Resilience to Shock, Resilience to Change, Resilience to Failure???….. They are not fundamentally different.

d. Required Actions (existing terminologies) What do we expect from a Resilient System to react/behave? Before the threat During the threat After the threat To predict/anticipate/foresight /forecast in order to prevent any undesirable impacts To prepare/improve/update/ upgrade/adjust against undesirable impacts To avoid /manage any other potential dangers affecting the system performance before the Threat Short-term Long-term Threat To prevent problem becoming worse To root out troubles To recover/restore/ bounce-back/transform to a desirable state To adapt to changes To learn from threat To self-organise (if necessary) Adapt, prevent, resist/persist/counter/withstand/cope with, mitigate, adjust, survive/endure, sustain/maintain/retain, absorb, respond, reorganize, tolerate, degrade, restore/recover/bounce-back from/return to equilibrium. To survive/cope/maintain-sustain functioning/withstand/ resist To respond quickly and efficiently Time

We expect from a Resilient System: To be able to anticipate the threat in order to prevent To be able to prepare against the threat To be able to avoid potential threats before coming threat To be able to resist at the time of the threat To respond quickly and efficiently at the time of the threat To prevent problem becoming worse after the threat To adapt to changes after the threat To recover/restore after the threat To learn form the threat To self-organise after the threat Before the Threat Resilient STS Before the Threat During the Threat After the Threat Anticipate Prevent Avoid Resist Respond Recover Adapt Learn Self-Organise At the time of the occurrence After the Threat

e. Preserved Qualities (in Resilience approach/in being Resilient) Function, structure, performance, state/regime, identity, feedbacks, objectives, operations, processes, controls. System properties must be preserved: function, structure; System identities must be preserved: set of feedbacks, state or regime, set of controls, processes; System must, preserve performance, continue to meet objectives, continue operating. Things that are allowed to change: Operating mode, internal configuration, sometimes internal structure (self-organization) To re-(self-)organize, reconfigure, transition to a new state; To learn and to improve learning (people-intensive systems such as organizations, enterprises, and socio-technical systems).

B. Types of Resilience (Gunderson and Pritchard, 2002; Folke, 2006) Engineering Resilience Infrastructure Resilience Ecological/Ecosystem Resilience Social Resilience Social-Ecological Resilience Institutional Resilience Socio-Technical/Technological Resilience …. National Information Infrastructure Advisory Council (NIAC) (2009) (2009): Broad-based Resilience: social, organisational, institutional, economical….. Infrastructure Resilience: infrastructure systems, engineering systems, functions….. UWS is a Socio-Technical System (STS): It consists of social and technical or technological systems designed to ensure that the two systems jointly contribute to the (maybe best) possible human and organisational outcomes (Ing et al., 2012). UWS can be a STS as it points to the interrelatedness  of the Engineering systems (i.e. UWS) and the society (i.e. human life)(Hamilton et al., 2009)

Resilience Definitions (from Lit.) In Cambridge Dictionary: Ability to quickly return to previous good condition In Oxford Dictionary: Capacity to recover quickly from difficulties Infrastructure resilience (NIAC, 2009): Ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events. The effectiveness of a resilient infrastructure or enterprise depends upon its ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event. Engineering Resilience (Madni & Scott, 2009) : is concerned with building systems that are able to circumvent accidents through anticipation, survive disruptions through recovery, and grow through adaptation. resilience engineering calls for individuals and organizations to continually adjust/monitor their behaviour/responses to changes in the real-world conditions in a safe, and risk-managed fashion. Resilience (Hamilton, 2009): Ability of a system to resist, absorb, recover from the impacts of external and internal, natural and man-made shocks, overloads and disasters.

C. Resilience Characteristics and Properties Robustness Persistence Vulnerability Flexibility Resistance Impact Sensitivity Adaptability Reliability Adaptive capacity Mitigation Adaptation Stability Efficiency Sustainability Resilience Redundancy Transformation Characteristics: Robustness, Reliability, Adaptability (Adaptive Capacity), Vulnerability,… Properties: Resistance, Persistence, Absorptive, Restorative, Flexibility, Redundancy,…..

D. How the Resilience approach framework should be? Resilience against crossing a performance threshold (Ecological Resilience); (key properties: resilience, complexity, self-organisation and emergence) Resilience for post-disaster response and recovery after disturbances (Eng. Resilience); (key properties: robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, rapidity) Resilience that related to adaptive capacity and management (Institutional/Organisational Resilience) (key properties: ability to foresee and prevent adverse events, ability to response quickly to adverse events, ability to recover from an adverse event). (Wang & Blackmore, 2009) Infrastructure resilience (NIAC, 2009) Ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events. The effectiveness of a resilient infrastructure or enterprise depends upon its ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event. Four features for Resilience

System Response and Recovery Curve (Ouyang, 2012) Resilience is the joint ability of infrastructure systems to resist (prevent and withstand) any possible hazards, absorb the initial damage, and recover to normal operation. Typical performance response curve of an infrastructure system following a disruptive event First stage (0 -t0): Resistance capacity (index: hazard frequency, initial damage level) Second stage (t0 – t1): Absorptive capacity (index: max impact level) Third stage (t1 – tE): Restorative capacity (index: recovery time, recovery cost) Note: Performance level can be measured by different metrics, amount of flow or services delivered, no. of people served etc, depends on the WS sector)

Quality of Performance System Response and Recovery Curve Quality of Performance Normal Level Robustness Level of Service Resistance Absorptive Restorative/Recovery Resilience QPmin Time

How do we think about Resilience Concept in Safe&SuRe? Definition: Ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive threats. The effectiveness of a resilient UWS depends upon its ability to anticipate, prevent, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive threat. Robust Resilient Sustainable We should define the resilience concept in each water sector (NIAC, 2009: Resilience concept/definition is sector specific). Resilience concept in WDS Resilience concept in UDS Resilience concept in UWS Resilience can be a property of a system (emergent property), can be a system characteristic or can be a goal of the system to reach. Pyramid of Safe & SuRe UWS

Objective A: vision & Context WP3: Threats and impacts

WP3 is concerned with… potential threats to the urban water system and mapping these through to potential impacts.

Resilience to what? Resilience to Threat Threats Origin External Human-Related Economical Social Organisational Cyber Environmental Human-Made Accidental Delibrate Internal Engineering infrastructure System Operation System Design (physical) System communication Potential to disrupt Partly disruption Fully disruption Occurrence Single Multiple/ simultaneous Severity routine/regular emergency disaster/irregular Predictability Predicted/expected Unpredicted/unexpected Temporality of Change Chronic Acute Threats Resilience to what? Resilience to Threat

Threats Impacts Vulnerability Failure

Vulnerability Vulnerability can be broadly defined as the “susceptibility to be harmed” (Smith et al., 2013, TRUST). It can be measured be (Adger, 2006): Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity. (Allen Consulting, 2005)  Exposure: The anticipated frequency, magnitude, and duration of potentially harmful events is referred to as exposure. Sensitivity: The degree to which the system is influenced by the contextual changes (changes to the internal parts). Adaptive capacity: It represents the ability of a system to evolve and enact to reduce vulnerability (Smith et al., 2013-TRUST)

Vulnerability Approach Four capacities for vulnerability (Graaf, 2009): Threshold Capacity, Threshold capacity is the ability of a society to build up a threshold against variation in order to prevent damage (Damage Prevention). Coping Capacity Coping capacity is the capacity of society to reduce damage in case of a disturbance that exceeds the damage threshold (Damage Reduction). Recovery Capacity Refers to the capacity of a society to recover to the same or an equivalent state as before the emergency (Damage Reaction). Adapting Capacity

Failure (Broad meaning) A state of inability to perform a normal function; An unsatisfactory condition; The inability of a system to meet a specified performance standard Inability of the system to adequately adapt to perturbations and changes in the real world given finite resources and time; …… To be specific, in WDS (Mays, 2000) Failure of WDS (WDN) can be defined as the pressure, flow or both falling below specified values at one or more nodes within the network. Consequence For example: Possible failures/threats (internal) in WDS Pipe leakage, pipe burst, pump outage, tank failure, valve locking, inadequate head pressure, pipe aging, demand variation, undersized pipes, insufficient pumping, insufficient storage capacity, combination of these. Threat Failure Mechanism

Questions/Comments/Discussions?

Vulnerability (Vulnerability Approach) How severe the consequences of failure may be. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2000). (Allen Consulting, 2005)  Vulnerability shaped by the exposure, sensitivity and resilience of the person, system or community in focus, where exposure relates to the nature of disturbance encountered or projected (Pisano, 2012). Sensitivity refers to the technical and design characteristics of the system (e.g. location, durability, stress limits). Vulnerability can be broadly defined as the “susceptibility to be harmed” (Smith et al., 2013, TRUST). It can be measured by exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Adger, 2006). Exposure: The anticipated frequency, magnitude, and duration of potentially harmful events is referred to as exposure. Sensitivity: the degree to which the system is influenced by the contextual changes (changes to the internal changes).

Threats can be classified as the following groups: Failures (usually in technical system or components failures that cause catastrophes): e.g. dame breaks, pipe bursts, combined sewer overflows Accidents: Car accident which breaks pipes Attacks (terrorist activities): 11 September Natural hazards/natural disasters (including everything form hurricanes, tsunamis to flu pandemics to flooding) …

Group A: Resistance, Robustness, Stability, Constancy, Persistence, Reliability Group B: Adaptability, Adaptation, Adaptive Capacity, Redundancy (interaction) Group C: Flexibility, Resilience, Elasticity Group D: Impact, Mitigation, Vulnerability, Sensitivity (interaction) Group A In Cambridge/Oxford Dictionaries: Constancy: The quality of staying the same, not getting less or more Persistence:  The fact of continuing a course of action in spite of difficulty or opposition Reliability: Consistently good in quality or performance Resistance: A force that acts to stop the progress of something or make it slower Robustness: Strong and unlikely to break or fail (Broader area) Stability: A situation in which something is not likely to move or change Probably the two most frequent used terms are Robustness and Reliability in Literature.

Robustness A robust system provides excellent performance under normal conditions and deviate minimally from this during period of upset or challenge (Huck & Coffey, 2004). National Infrastructure Advisory Council (NIAC) (2009): The ability to keep operating or to stay standing in the face of disaster. In some cases, it translates into designing structures or systems to be strong enough to take a foreseeable punch. In others, robustness requires devising substitute or redundant systems that can be brought to bear should something important break or stop working. Withstanding disruptions requires the system to be robust (Madni & Scott, 2009). The “robustness” even has been used by sociologist to define the resilience concept (Folke, 2006). Structural persistence to disturbances (Folke, 2006). Robustness (referring to engineering systems) is the strength or ability of systems to withstand a given level of stress or demand without suffering unacceptable degradation or loss of function (Wang & Blackmore , 2009; Cimellaro et al., 2010). Stable design under external forces (NSF, 2009) National Science Foundation (NSF, 2011): Robustness is - Design‐based criteria - System flexibility to meet range of future uncertain conditions

Robustness Looking at the Resilience frameworks in the literature help understanding Robustness concept NIAC (2009):four features for Resilience: Robustness : The ability to keep operating or to stay standing in the face of disaster. Withstanding disruptions requires the system to be robust. Robustness is achieved by having “shock absorbers” in the form of, for example, resource buffers (Madni & Scott, 2009). First stage (0 -t0): Resistance capacity Second stage (t0 – t1): Absorptive capacity Third stage (t1 – tE): Restorative capacity Ouyang, 2012

Resilience Robustness

Questions/Comments/Discussions?

Group B: Adaptability, Adaptation, Adaptive Capacity, Redundancy Adaptive Cycle That is a conceptual model of the dynamics of coupled systems of people, nature, and technology (Gunderson and Holling 2002). They have been shown to continually go through dynamic phases of exploitation (r), conservation (K), release (Ω), and reorganization (α). Adaptive Cycle in UWS (Blackmore and Plant, 2009) It is used to describe the dynamics of Social-technical systems that passes through four phases (i.e. r, K, Ω and α).

Adaptability/Adaptation Adaptive Capacity/Adaptability/Adaptation Adaptability/Adaptation The means to absorb new lessons that can be drawn from a catastrophe (revising plans, modifying procedures and so on to improve robustness, resourcefulness, and recovery capabilities before the next crisis) (NIAC, 2009). It is the capacity of a factor in a system to influence resilience. In STS is the capacity of humans to manage resilience (Blackmore and Plant, 2009). Adaptive Capacity It is a key measure of a system’s position in adaptive cycle (a measure of system performance) (Blackmore and Plant, 2009). It is the capacity of actors in a system to influence resilience (Pisano, 2012). It involves either or both of two abilities: 1. The ability to determine the trajectory of the system state - the position within its current basin of attraction; 2. The ability to alter the shape of the basins, that is move the positions of thresholds or make the system more or less resistant to perturbation. It is the ability of technical, institutional and social components of a system to learn and adjust in response to a disturbance in order to maintain a desired outcome or change the nature of the desired outcome (Strengers, 2012). 

Resilience Adaptive Capacity Adaptive Capacity is the capacity of actors in a system to influence resilience (Blackmore and Plant, 2009) Klein (2003) Adopted the umbrella concept to say that adaptive capacity is a factor influencing resilience. Adaptive Capacity is a feature of resilience construct (NIAC, 2009). Adaptive Capacity is vital to a system’s ability to increase or decrease its resilience (Strengers, 2012). Adaptive capacity represents the ability of a system to evolve and enact to reduce vulnerability (Smith et al., 2013-TRUST) In ICFR conference (e.g. Batica, …..) Possible parameters of Adaptive Capacity (Wang & Blackmore, 2009): Redundancy & Connectivity (buffering capacity) Flexible/adaptive operational management Knowledge of the system behaviour at it approaches a critical threshold Value of reusable capital following a collapse

A list of generic determinants of adaptive capacity has been developed by Yohe & Tol (2002): The range of available technological options for adaptation; The availability of resources and their distribution; The structure of critical institutions; The stocks of human and social capital; Access to risk spreading mechanisms; The ability of decision-makers to manage risks and information; and The public’s perceived attribution of the source of stress and the significance of climate change exposure to its local manifestations. Adaptive Management (Blackmore and Plant, 2009) It is treated as an adaptive learning process in which management activities are viewed as the primary tools for planning, implementation, evaluation and adjustment.

Resilience Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Resilience The relationship between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity is still not well articulated.  Conceptual linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity (Cutter et al., 2008) Integrated vulnerability and resilience framework linked through coping and adaptive capacity, whereby both vulnerability and resilience approaches recognise adaptive capacity. Berman et al., (2012)

Questions/Comments/Discussions?

Transformation/Transformality A system’s ability to change itself (Strengers, 2012). May involve a deliberate change to structures, functions or identity (i.e. achieving a system transformation). Transformation reflects a very high degree of adaptation, despite the loss of original system identity, provided this process is deliberate and results in desired outcomes. Transformability is the capacity to cross thresholds into new development trajectories (Pisano, 2012).

An illustration of the continuum of change, buffer capacity, adaptive capacity and transformability (Shadbolt, 2012) Coping capacity 3-D Resilience Framework

Reliability How likely a system is to fail NIAC (2009) defined the Reliability in terms of two basic and functional aspects:   Adequacy—The ability of the system to supply the aggregate demand at all times, taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected unscheduled outages of system elements. Security—The ability of the system to withstand sudden disturbances from credible contingencies. Hashimoto (1982), Blackmore & Plant (2008): Reliability is the probability that system benefits or performance will be within an acceptable range (e.g., water demands met sufficiently)/ in a non-failure state;

Robustness Reliability Reliable Robust=Reliable Robust Reliable Reliable Robust I think: with regard to the literatures (e.g. NIAC), Robustness has a broader meaning than Reliability, therefore maybe a Robust system should be Reliable first.

Questions/Comments/Discussions?

Pyramid of Safe & SuRe UWS ??? Resilient Robust Sustainable Robust Resilient Sustainable

Categorising sub-properties of resilience (Seith)

Reliability-Robustness-Resilience-Sustainability

Challenge Resilience Approach Command-Control To Risk-Based management To have a sustainable system, the vulnerability of the system to natural hazards, malfunctioning, misconstruction, misuse, operational failure, etc should be considered (i.e. after anticipation to the prevention/absorption stage). Therefore: Option selection should be informed by an analysis of the risk of “unsustainable functioning” due to these threats. Message 1: Resilience is a measure of sustainability and a key system property. Message 2: Each system have a different risk of failing to deliver, and this risk can be seen as the overarching indicator of its sustainability.

Risk-based prevention and/or adaptation ??? Resilient STS To Anticipate Absorb To Adapt To Recover Learn Option selection based on risk assessment Risk-based prevention and/or adaptation ??? For example: Of two systems that have the same nominal performance, the one with the lower risk of failure will be preferable; a system with a lower risk of failure might even be preferred over one with “better” nominal performance (Blackmore and Diaper 2004). Some form of risk assessment, leading to reliable risk management, is therefore a necessary component of sustainability assessment.

Thanks for your attention