A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Update on the Rhode Island Economy Dr. James R. Ramsey September 13, 2010

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Honored to serve as a Trustee of the Narragansett Insured Tax-Free Income Fund since 2004 – Churchill Tax Free Trustee since

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® A quick look back at the national economy 3

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® We know that nationally times have been unprecedented… Sources: NBER, BEA, and BLS. * Lowest level during the current recession. The next two quarters (2009: III and IV) have been positive. 4 PeakDecline in real GDP Dec-07 (IV)-3.70% Mar-01 (I)0.40% Jul-90 (III)-1.40% Jul-81 (III)-2.90% Jan-80 (I)-2.20% Nov-73 (IV)-3.20% Dec-69 ((IV)-0.20% Apr-60 (II)-1.10% Aug-57 (III)-3.70% Jul-53 (II)-2.60% Nov-48 (IV)-1.70%

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Things seemed to be getting better…. then… National Non-Farm Employment (in thousands) 5

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® The economy has lost momentum – but doubt double dip –Accelerated growth first half of the year. Inventory build up –Consumer is saving – long term a good thing –Business also cautious - cost containment – not adding workers Slow/very slow recovery How long will it take to … National Economic Thoughts 6

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® In Rhode Island it wasn’t much better… Employment – Why employment? 7

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Rhode Island Budget Where it comes from (in millions) 8

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Rhode Island Non-farm Employment (in thousands) 9 Jun ‘

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Manufacturing 10

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® 11 Professional Business Services

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® 12 Leisure & Hospitality

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® 13 Financial Services

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® 14 Trade, Transportation & Utilities

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® 15 Education & Health Services

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Slow/very slow How long will it take to regain over 20,000 lost jobs? –Where will new jobs come from? Continued impact on state budget – state services Thoughts about Rhode Island’s economy… 16

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® P.S. I love this stuff… But I haven’t given up my day job! 17