1. Economic Outlook December 2015
Economic Policy Division

2. U.S. GDP Actual and Potential
Quarterly, Q to Q4 2016
Trillion $2009
Forecast

3. U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential
(Real $2013 dollars)

4. Comparing Recoveries (Growth Rates) (SAAR) Trough Peak # of Quarters
Real GDP
Productivity
Real Total Compensation
Income*
Q4 1949
Q2 1953 14
7.6
3.6
4.2
Q2 1954
Q3 1957 13
4.0
2.2
3.0
Q2 1958
Q2 1960 8
5.6
2.7
3.4
Q1 1961
Q4 1969 35
4.9
2.4
3.7
Q4 1970
Q4 1973 12
5.1
1.8
Q1 1975
Q1 1980 20
4.3
1.7
1.0
Q3 1980
Q3 1981 4
4.4
0.3
Q4 1982
Q3 1990 31
2.1
Q1 1991
Q1 2001 40
2.3
Q4 2001
Q4 2007 24
2.8
2.5
0.9
1.9
Q2 2009
Q2 2015
* Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita, BEA

5. Comparing Recoveries II Job Growth During Recovery Periods
Trough
Peak
Ave Job Growth per Month
Ave Nonfarm Employment
Share
Oct 1949 (Q4)
Jul 1953 (Q3)
169,000
47,667,000
0.35%
May 1954 (Q2)
Aug 1957 (Q3)
107,000
51,441,000
0.21%
Apr 1958 (Q2)
Apr 1960 (Q2)
158,000
52,902,000
0.30%
Feb 1961 (Q1)
Dec 1969 (Q4)
167,000
61,740,000
0.27%
Nov 1970 (Q4)
Nov 1973 (Q4)
208,000
73,805,000
0.28%
Mar 1975 (Q1)
Jan 1980 (Q1)
244,000
83,642,000
0.29%
Jul 1980 (Q3)
Jul 1981 (Q3)
-173,000
90,641,000
-0.19%
Nov 1982 (Q4)
Jul 1990 (Q3)
229,000
100,272,000
0.23%
Mar 1991(Q1)
Mar 2001 (Q1)
201,000
119,615,000
0.17%
Nov 2001 (Q4)
Dec 2007 (Q4)
99,000
133,467,000
0.07%
Jun 2009 (Q2)
Nov 2015 (Q3)
155,000
135,072,000
0.11%

6. Income Inequality Presidents Term Change in Gini Nixon 1969-1974 0.009
Ford
-0.002
Carter
0.005
Reagan
0.023
Bush
0.007
Clinton
0.029
0.004
Obama
2009-
0.014

7. CBO’s Baseline Deficit
(August 2015)
Budget Deficit
Deficit to GDP

8. Government Baseline Outside Debt
(August 2015)
Debt
Debt to GDP

9. Government Revenues and Outlays (Percent of GDP)
Source: CBO Baseline (August 2015)

10. Government Outlays Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest
Source: CBO Baseline (August 2015)
Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest

11. Mandatory Spending as a Share of Total Revenues
Mandatory Spending (Entitlements + Net Interest)

12. Economic Outlook December 2015
J.D. Foster

13. The Greenspan Conundrum

14. The Greenspan Conundrum

15. CBO’s Baseline Deficit
(August 2015)
Budget Deficit
Deficit to GDP