HOW WELL IS IDAHO PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012

2 Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All? The Economic Imperative: A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school and all students need to be academically prepared to compete for good jobs in the global economy. The Equity Imperative: Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for success. Students in minority groups drop out and fail to attain postsecondary credentials at much higher rates than their counterparts. The Expectations Imperative: The bar has been set too low for too long, keeping students from reaching their full potential, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities. What Does it Mean to be College- and Career-Ready? To be college- and career-ready, high school graduates must have studied a rigorous and broad curriculum anchored in the demands of postsecondary and business that is grounded in the core academic disciplines, but also consisting of other subjects that are part of a well-rounded education.

THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE: A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NO LONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESS The changing economy is accelerating the skills mismatch, as careers increasingly require some education/training beyond high school, and more developed knowledge and skills

4 Why College and Career Readiness Is Imperative for Our Economic Future Employer Expectations: Employers increasingly need their employees to use a broader set of skills than have been required in the past to meet the increasingly complex demand coming from the modernized workplace. Skills Mismatch: While fifty years ago a large proportion of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less, today only one-fifth of jobs are considered unskilled. The demand for higher skilled workers has increased, while the production of higher skilled workers has remained flat. International Advantage: Other nations are surpassing the U.S. in improving their educational systems to increase achievement, reduce achievement gaps, and educating themselves as a way to a better economy, while the U.S. remains stagnant. Personal Benefits: More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment. Educational attainment isn’t just a benefit in the short-term; more education is correlated with larger projections of lifetime earnings at every level of the pipeline.

5 Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Employer Expectations: Education and Training and Requirements Over Time

6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook, Edition. Employer Expectations: Increased Demand for Postsecondary Education and Training

7 Source: Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009). The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs. Brookings Institution. Employer Expectations: The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs High-skill jobs Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories. Often require four-year degrees and above Middle-skill jobs Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving. Low-skill jobs Occupations in the service and agricultural categories. Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees, vocational certificates, and significant on-the-job training.

8 Source: National Skills Coalition (2010). The Bridge to a New Economy: Worker Training Fills the Gap. ; National Skills Coalition (2011). State Middle Skill Fact Sheets. Employer Expectations: Employment Shares by Occupational Skill Level

9 Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform. Education Testing Services. ; Skills to Compete. National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. The Skills Mismatch: Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces Idaho’s Supply  I n 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less. Today, 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled.  One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level. 79% of Idaho’s jobs are middle or high skills (jobs that require some postsecondary education or training). Yet only 35% of Idaho’s adults have some postsecondary degree (associate’s or higher).

10 Source: ManPower Group. (2011) Talent Shortage Survey & McKinsey Global Institute (2011). An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America’s Future. & Bureau of Labor Statisticswww.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/us_jobs/index.asp The Skills Mismatch: Jobs Are Going Unfilled 52% of employers reported difficulty in finding the right talent, up from 14% in This is the highest U.S. percentage reported in ManPower Group’s annual survey’s six-year history. Another 30% of companies, surveyed by McKinsey & Co, said they had job opening for six months or more because of lack of ideal/qualified candidates.

11Source: OECD, PISA 2009 Database. Statlink – International Advantage: Increased Competition from Abroad While the benefits of graduating high school college- and career-ready and attaining some postsecondary credential affects each individual student, it also impacts our standing as a nation in an increasingly competitive global economy and workforce. Education attainment and achievement in the U.S. have gone stagnant at a time when the global economy is demanding increased education and more complex skills – and other countries are responding. U.S. students rank 12 th in reading, 13 th in science, and 24 th in math on international testing.

12 Source: OECD. Education at a Glance (All rates are self-reported) ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates

13 Source: OECD. Education at a Glance (All rates are self-reported.) ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006) ALL (25-64) 1 U.S. (40%)Canada (44%)Canada (54%)Korea (58%)Canada (49%) 2 Canada (40%)Japan (43%)Japan (48%)Canada (56%)Japan (43%) 3 N.Z. (34%)U.S. (40%)Finland (44%)Japan (55%)U.S. (41%) 4 Finland (29%)N.Z. (38%)U.S. (43%)N.Z. (48%)N.Z. (40%) 5 Australia (28%)Finland (37%)Korea (43%)Norway (46%)Finland (37%) 6 Norway (28%)Australia (33%)N.Z. (40%)Ireland (45%)Korea (37%) 7 Switz. (27%)Denmark (32%)Norway (38%)Denmark (43%)Norway (36%) 8 U.K. (27%)Norway (32%)Australia (38%)Belgium (42%)Australia (36%) 9 Sweden (26%)Switz. (31%)Denmark (37%)Australia (42%)Denmark (34%) 10 Neth. (26%)Neth. (31%)Ireland (37%)U.S. (42%)Ireland (34%) 11 Denmark (26%)Iceland (30%)Switz. (36%)Sweden (41%)Switz. (34%) 12 Japan (26%)U.K. (30%)Iceland (36%)France (41%)U.K. (33%) 13 Germany (24%)Belgium (29%)Belgium (35%)Neth. (40%)Belgium (32%) 14 Iceland (24%)Sweden (28%)U.K. (33%)Spain (39%)Neth. (32%) 15 Belgium (22%)Ireland (27%)Sweden (33%)Luxembourg (39%)Sweden (32%) 45-64: Idaho (35%)ID (38%)ID (31%)ID (35%) 14 Source: OECD. Education at a Glance a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

15 Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary experience. The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear: More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment.

16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011). Current Population Survey. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment Idaho Statistics: Total Unemployment: 10%, Mean Income: $29,503

17 Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Analysis based on author’s analysis of March 2008 CPS data. Personal Benefits: Increased Lifetime Earnings

THE EQUITY IMPERATIVE: CREATING EQUAL ACCESS AND PREPARATION FOR ALL Far too many students, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for real world challenges

Achievement Gaps Start Early: Idaho’s 4 th and 8 th Grade Achievement Gaps 19 Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from Subgroup 4 th Grade Math (2011) 4 th Grade Reading (2011) 4 th Grade Science (2009) 8 th Grade Math (2011) 8 th Grade Reading (2011) 8 th Grade Science (2011) All Students 39%33%35%37%34%38% White44%37%40%41%37%43% Blackn/a Hispanic17%15%10%16%17%15% Asian52%43%39%n/a American Indian n/a % At or Above Proficient on NAEP

Achievement Gaps Are About More than Race: Achievement Gaps Among Other Disadvantaged Populations 20 Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from Subgroup 4 th Grade Math (2011) 4th Grade Reading (2011) 4 th Grade Science (2009) 8 th Grade Math (2011) 8 th Grade Reading (2011) 8 th Grade Science (2011) All Students39%33%35%37%34%38% Low Income27%21%24% 23%26% English Language Learners 2%n/a7%2%n/a Students with Disabilities 15%7%15%6%4%6% % At or Above Proficient on NAEP

21 Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Minority Students Are More at Risk of Dropping Out Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation. Kids Count Data Center. 2010, Teens ages 16 to 19 who are not in school and are not high school graduates by race (Percent).

Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Graduation Rates 22Source: Education Week (2012). Graduation in the United States.

Achievement Gaps Continue Into Postsecondary: College Completion 23 Source: NCES. IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems. Percent of Students Earning a Postsecondary Degree

THE EXPECTATIONS IMPERATIVE: WE’RE SETTING THE BAR TOO LOW We’ve held students to low and inconsistent expectations for too long. As a result, too few graduates are successful and achieving college and career readiness.

Too Many Students Remain Off Track to Success: Of Every th Graders in Idaho… 25 Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College.

Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Participating in AP and Exceeding College and Career Readiness 26 Source: College Board (2012). AP Report to the Nation. Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2011)

Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark 27 Source: ACT (2012). College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State. Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses.

Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness 28 Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall Percentage of U.S. first-year students in two-year and four-year institutions requiring remediation

Freshmen at Two-Year Colleges are More Likely to Require Remediation 29 Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at Degree- Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.

Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Retention Rates 30 Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2010). Retention Rates - First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year ; Graduation Rates.

Desire for High Expectations: The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses 31 Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005). Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Washington, DC: Achieve. Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area Math Science English Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work …

THE SUPPORT: STAKEHOLDERS RECOGNIZE THE NEED FOR ACTION Research and polling demonstrates that students, teachers, parents, and the general public are dissatisfied with the status quo – and want to do something about it.

The Public on College and Career Readiness 33 To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some education beyond high school, whether that means university, community college, technical or vocational school. To really get ahead in life, a person needs more than just a high school education. 87% 89% Source: Achieve (2010). Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career- Ready Agenda.

Parents on College and Career Readiness 34 Source: Civic Enterprises (2008). One Dream, Two Realities: Perspectives of Parents on America's High Schools.

The vast majority of students intend to go on to college and do not expect to drop out of high school: 93 percent of middle school students report there is “no chance” they will drop out in high school. 94 percent of high school students say that they are planning to continue their education after high school either at a two- or four-year institution. 95 percent of teenagers report that graduating from high school is “critical to their future success.” Students Overwhelmingly Want to Succeed and Attend College 35 Source: Middle Schools Poll, Prepared for the National Association of Secondary School Principals and Phi Delta Kappa, 2007; Civic Enterprises, The Silent Epidemic: Perspectives of High School Dropouts, 2006; Boys & Girls Clubs of America/Taco Bell Foundation for Teens, Teen Graduation Crisis Survey, 2009.

Graduates Consistently Regret Not Having Worked Harder – Or Having Been More Challenged – in High School 36 Source: College Board (2011). One Year Out: Findings From A National Survey Among Members Of The High School Graduating Class Of

Employers See the Value of Education – and the Knowledge and Skills Gaps in Their Recent Hires 37 Source: Corporate Voices for Working Families & Civic Enterprises (2011). Across the Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs and College Presidents on America’s Higher Education and Skills Gap. & The Conference Board, Corporate Voices for Working Families, ASTD, SHRM (2008). The Ill-Prepared U.S. Workforce: Exploring the Challenges of Employer-Provided Workforce Readiness Training. 4-year College More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy (79%) and workforce productivity (76%). Executives also recognize increasing postsecondary experiences could affect both the success of their company (75%) and their company’s ability to hire and retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%).

Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda 38 Sources: MetLife (2010). The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher. teacher/MetLife_Teacher_Survey_2010.pdf & Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Scholastic (2010). Primary Sources: America's Teachers on America's School. teacher/MetLife_Teacher_Survey_2010.pdfwww.scholastic.com/primarysources/pdfs/Scholastic_Gates_noapp_0310.pdf High school is not preparing students for the workforce It is important for all students to have one year or more of postsecondary education to be prepared for a career Clearer standards would make a strong or very strong impact on student achievement Common standards would have a strong or very strong impact on student achievement

Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda 39 Source: Achieve (2012) Growing Awareness, Growing Support: Teacher and Voter Understanding of the Common Core State Standards & Assessments. 10% Strongly

THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

The College- and Career-Ready Agenda 41 Align high school standards with the demands of college and careers. Require students to take a college- and career-ready curriculum to earn a high school diploma. Build college- and career-ready measures into statewide high school assessment systems. Develop reporting and accountability systems that promote college and career readiness.

Idaho’s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date 42 Idaho adopted the Common Core State Standards in mathematics and English Language Arts/Literacy in January Idaho is a Governing State in the Smarter Balanced Assessment Consortium (SBAC), a group of states working to develop a common assessment system using Race to the Top Common Assessment funds. Idaho currently funds the administration of the SAT, ACT and/or COMPASS for all 11th grade students (which college admissions/placement test students take is up to them).

How Idaho Can Continue to Build on its Momentum… …Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular and policy changes. …Adopt college- and career-ready graduation requirements, aligned to the Common Core State Standards, to ensure all students are prepared, and eligible, for entry into college and skilled careers. …Remain committed to the goals of SBAC and developing and administering a next-generation, computer-based assessment system that will measure the full range of the Common Core State Standards. …Continue to make progress on the state’s data collection efforts, particularly around making student data available to relevant stakeholders and linking K-12 and postsecondary student-level data. …Re-examine the state’s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can reward measures of college and career readiness.

HOW WELL IS IDAHO PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012