Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Federal Budget & Health Outlook: Implications for CO Robb Gray Director of State Engagement & Partnerships

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Overview Budget Outlook President’s Budget Proposal Congressional Budget Process Major Negotiations Likely Coming 1

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Fiscal Outlook in Brief 2

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Key Policy Issues in Budget Process Appropriations / sequestration Cuts /changes to CHIP, Medicaid, ACA Social Security Disability Insurance Expiring improvements in the EITC and CTC 3

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Deficits Have Fallen Sharply Since Recession 4 4

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Major Health Programs including Health Reform Now Projected to Cost Less Than in January 2010 without Health Reform Spending in trillions of dollars, Note: Baseline projections of Medicare, Medicaid, health insurance subsidies, and Children’s Health Insurance Program for fiscal years January 2015 projections include actual spending for FY Source: CBPP analysis based on Congressional Budget Office estimates.

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Recent Policy Savings to Reduce Deficits Largely Come from Program Cuts

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org NDD Spending Falling to Historic Lows: “Road Map of Disinvestment”

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Non-Defense Discretionary Falling After Adjusting for Inflation 8

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Sequestration Relief Has Been Evenly Divided Between Defense and Non-Defense 9

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Tax Expenditures Are Very Costly 10

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Balance Budget in Ten Years Increase Defense No New Revenues No Major Savings from Current Social Security or Medicare Beneficiaries NDD and Low-Income Entitlements Likely Architecture of GOP Budgets

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Ryan FY 2015 Budget Priorities 12

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Budget Process and Timetable

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org This Year’s Budget and Health Debate February: President released 2016 Budget March/April: Congress will pass a budget resolution. (reconciliation instructions) End of March:SGR & CHIP? Fall: House/Senate will try to pass a reconciliation bill; appropriations process; debt ceiling must be raised 14

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Reconciliation Entitlements Simple Majority Passage Cuts and Changes Debt Ceiling

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Key Threats to Low-Income Households

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Key Threats to Low-Income Households Entitlement cuts, including in Medicaid, SNAP, EITC, SSI, ACA subsidies, etc. Harmful proposals to cap or restructure key entitlement programs, including Medicaid, SNAP, and EITC Further cuts to Non-Defense Discretionary funding Risks associated with CHIP reauthorization 17

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org 18 Key Threats to HEALTHCARE

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Extension OF CHIP Funding

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org House/Senate Republican ACA-Medicaid Plan Roadmap for Reconciliation (King decision)? 20

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Protecting Tax Credits for Working Families and Veterans in CO More than 300,000 CO households received the EITC in CO Nearly that many received refundable part of the Child Tax Credit (CTC). 25,000 CO veteran and armed- forces families received the EITC or the refundable part of CTC in 2012.

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Working-Family Tax Credits help at Every Stage of Life

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Single Mother Working Full Time at Minimum Wage With Two Children Would Lose Entire Child Tax Credit at End of *The provision, which expires after 2017, lowers the level of earnings excluded for the purpose of calculating the refundable Child Tax Credit. Source: CBPP calculations based on Tax Policy Center data

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org 24 Principles for Any Budget DEAL

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org What Can You Do? Make your voice heard Educate policymakers; hold them accountable Engage in the process in a timely fashion Enlist your allies Stay connected: Let us help you - Sign up for CBPP analyses Sign up for CBPP blogs CFPI Resources