1. Opportunity and Risks: A Strategic Conversation
Ellen Nissenbaum
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
July 24, 2017

10. “Health Asks” for your Senators
Oppose procedural vote (“motion to proceed”)
If that vote succeeds, urge Republicans to oppose both “repeal and delay” and any “repeal and replace” plan(s) that increases the number of insured significantly, ends the Medicaid expansion and ends Medicaid as we know it
If the procedural fails, encourage and expect bipartisan negotiations on “stabilizing the marketplace” to begin -- and urge Democrats and key Medicaid expansion state Republicans to keep Medicaid “off the table”
Key targets

11. QUESTIONS?

12. Budget Resolution – Broad Vision vs. Reconciliation Instructions
Budget resolution lays out a comprehensive ten-year fiscal policy roadmap
Overall direction on entitlements, discretionary funding, taxes
Budget resolution can also put in place a fast-track legislative process that can be used for entitlement and tax changes
In today’s partisan environment, “reconciliation instructions” reflect House’s legislative goals for this year
Sharon

13. Broad Vision is Harsh $4.4 trillion in entitlement cuts over 10 years
$1.5 trillion in Medicaid & other health programs (excl Medicare)
Larger cuts than AHCA
$487 billion in Medicare
$150 billion in SNAP
Cuts 20% over 10 years
Cuts are deeper in latter half of decade
$200+ billion in Pell and Student Loans
Eliminates ~$80 billion in entitlement funding for Pell
$500 billion in unspecified cuts to “income security” programs (i.e., SSI, TANF, EITC, Child Tax Credit, Foster Care)
$700 billion in unrealistic savings from “improper payments”

14. Fast-Track “Reconciliation Process”
House budget includes reconciliation instructions
Requires at least $203 billion in entitlement cuts
Committees required to find cuts include those w. low-income programs:
Ways and Means: $52 billion
Energy and Commerce: $20 billion
Agriculture: $10 billion
Education & Workforce: $20 billion
Likely low-income programs targets:
SNAP, Medicaid, EITC/CTC, Social Services Block Grant,, Student Loans, SSI, TANF (maybe others…)
Tax bill to be included in reconciliation bill
Allows entitlement cuts to pay for tax cuts, which could bid up cuts

15. The Push on “Work”
Tremendous pressure from Freedom Caucus and other Republicans on “work” – aka work requirements
When they say “work requirements” beware:
In SNAP, often means making already harsh 3-month time limit on childless adults even harsher
In other programs, often means adding requirements that people work or participate in a work program to get benefits, but their “work requirements” are often unworkable
If Republicans were serious about work, they would
Increase rather than cut funding for job training
Invest in child care
Remember: many on Medicaid, housing subsidies and/or SNAP do work, or are between jobs -- so who is the real target here?

17. Goal, strategy, and tactics
GOAL: Stop the House budget resolution
STRATEGY: Strong and swift response against the resolution, followed by a drumbeat of opposition
TACTICS:
Direct contact with members of Congress and staff
Earned media
Analysis of the budget and what it means for your state
Social media
Events
Louisa

18. Asks for members of Congress: House
For House Republicans (especially moderates):
Oppose the budget resolution
Louisa

19. Asks for members of Congress: Senate
For Senate Republicans:
Express your opposition to the House budget resolution publicly and to leadership
Work to ensure that the Senate budget resolution:
does not establish a fast-track process to cut entitlements
does not allow entitlement cuts to help offset cost of tax cuts
requires that tax legislation is revenue neutral
Express your support for non-defense investments and work toward a bipartisan agreement to reduce or eliminate sequestration cuts in NDD with equal relief between non- defense and defense priorities
Louisa

20. QUESTIONS?

21. EITC/CTC Why these 2 programs are at greater risk Reconciliation
Tax reform
New mega threat to EITC (“program integrity”)
CTC dynamics (SSN for the child)
Prioritization problem
EITC – not childless adults
CTC – not yet poorest families
Don’t support “bad trade-off” deal

22. Trump and House GOP Tax Plans Heavily Skewed Toward Wealthy

23. Working-Family Tax Credits Help at Every Stage of Life

24. QUESTIONS?

25. Ellen Nissenbaum Center on Budget and Policy Priorities nissenbaum@cbpp.org www.cbpp.org