1. 2012 Federal Budget Outlook NIHB January 24, 2012 Joan Huffer Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 1

2. Federal Debt Under Current Policies is Unsustainable cbpp.org 4/28/20152NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

3. Tax Cuts, Wars Account for Half of Public Debt by 2019 4/28/20153

4. Ryan plan would get two-thirds of cuts from programs for low- and moderate-income people 4 Source: “The Path to Prosperity” FY2012 Budget Resolution

5. 1.Cuts discretionary spending by $1 trillion over 10 years through caps on discretionary spending. 2.Set up bipartisan, bicameral Joint Select Committee to identify additional $1.5 trillion in savings. Failed to reach agreement. 3.$1.2 trillion in across-the-board cuts (sequestration) begins January 2013 unless Congress acts. Deficit Reduction Under the Budget Control Act 4/28/20155 cbpp.org

6. Supercommittee Failure Triggers Sequestration 4/28/20156

7. Sequestration Means Deep Cuts Throughout Budget 4/28/20157

8. Sequestration will be on TOP of Discretionary Caps 4/28/20158

9. $1.2 trillion across-the-board spending cuts will not affect: Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Food Stamps) Child Care Entitlements (mandatory) Child Nutrition Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC), Child Tax Credit (CTC), ACA Premium Credits [but NOT cost-sharing subsidies] Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) 4/28/20159 Core Low-Income Entitlement Programs Exempt from Sequestration

10. Short-term threats UI benefits, weeks could be cut back Cuts to health care programs to pay for SGR Shielding defense from sequestration without revenue savings could lead to: - Loss of exemption for some low-income programs - Increased cuts to NDD 10

11. Fiscal Policies Collide at End of 2012 11 2001-2010 tax cuts expire at end of 2012 $1.2 trillion sequestration scheduled to begin in January 2013 Debt ceiling may need to be raised by early 2013 FY2013 Appropriations bills may or may not be completed

12. Principles for Deficit Reduction cbpp.org Balance primary budget, stabilize debt to GDP. Need a balanced approach: everything must be on the table Should not increase poverty or inequality Boost economy in short-run 4/28/2015

13. Past Deficit-Reduction Packages Included Large Revenue Increases 13

14. Taxes Do Not Necessarily Harm the Economy or Cost Jobs 14

15. Helpful Resources Office of Management & Budget (OMB) – www.whitehouse.gov/omb U.S. Senate Budget Committee – http://budget.senate.gov U.S. House Budget Committee – http://budget.house.gov Congressional Budget Office (CBO) – www.cbo.gov THOMAS – Library of Congress – http://thomas.loc.gov Center on Budget and Policy Priorities – www.cbpp.org