Lecture 17 conditional probability

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Presentation transcript:

Lecture 17 conditional probability Example : SARS Sample space, basic outcome, and event Basic rule A and B ( in both A and B) , A or B (in either A or B or both) Conditional probability of B given A =P{B|A}= P{A and B}/P{A} Probability of death for China Given a SARS death case, what is the probability that the case is from China?

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Class enrollment : by year and by major Year : freshman, sophomore, junior, senior Major, life science, social science, math science, A=freshman, B=life science A and B = life science freshman P(A)=30%, P(B)=35%, P(A and B)=25% Find P(non-life science freshman) Randomly select a student. It turns out that he/she is not a freshman. What is the probability that he/she majors in life science?

Prisoner’s dilemma Three prisoners , A, B, C are in jail. One of them is to be executed and the other two will be set free. Prisoner A asked the guard : one of my partners B or C will be set free. Could you please tell me which one of them will be set free? Guard thought a while and told A : If I do not tell you, then your chance of death is 1/3. But if I tell you, then there are only two left and you are one of them to be killed. Your chance of death will be 1/2. Do you really want to increase your chance of death ?

Drawers A and B A has a good coin and a fake coin B has two good coins and a fake coin Open a drawer and pick a coin. Chance of getting fake one. Given the fake one is selected, what is the chance that it came from drawer A?