Global, Regional, and Urban Climate Effects of Air Pollutants Mark Z. Jacobson Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering Stanford University.

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Presentation transcript:

Global, Regional, and Urban Climate Effects of Air Pollutants Mark Z. Jacobson Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering Stanford University

Modeled CO 2 (g) and Modeled v Measured Ocean pH CO 2 (g) mixing ratio (ppmv) Surface ocean pH Data from Friedli et al. (1986) and Keeling and Whorf (2003)

Modeled Ocean Profiles 2004; 2104 Under SRES A1B Emission Scenario Depth (m)

Effect of CO 2 (g) on Atmospheric Acids Mixing ratio (ppbv)

Comparison of ff BC Climate Responses 1. Jacobson (JGR 107, D19, 2002). Size resolved (1 distribution) multi-component aerosols, size-resolved cloud formation on aerosols, size-resolved treatment of first and part of second indirect effects, climatological snow/ice albedo, emissions of Cooke et al. (1999), 2-D ocean module, many feedbacks. Fossil fuel BC+OM: +0.3 K (5-y average) K (last year) Range of all simulations (+0.15 to +0.5) 2. Ibid. (JGR 2004, in press). Same as (1) but treated first and second indirect effects, calculated snow/ice albedo, used early Bond et al. (2004) inventory. Fossil fuel + biofuel BC+OM: K (10-y avg. snow contrib K) 3. Ibid. Recent results. Same as (2) but used most recent Bond et al (2004) emission,, used two distributions (emitted ff+bf BC+OM and emitted other + heterocoagulated BC) and 10 layers of energy diffusion to deep ocean. Fossil fuel + biofuel BC+OM: K (6-y avg.)

Ten-Year-Avg. Globally-Averaged Temperature Profile Differences Pressure (hPa) With snow/sea ice absorption and with-w/o ff+bf BC+OM Pressure (hPa) Contribution of BC absorption by snow/sea ice

Temperature Changes Due to Eliminating Emission of Anthropogenic CO 2, CH 4, and f.f. BC+OM Cooling (K) after eliminating anthropogenic emission

Observed and Modeled Temp. Diff. w-w/o GHG and Aerosols Schneider and Held (2001) Latitude (degrees) (4 y an. avg.) (January only

Modeled (4 y avg.) Temp. Diff. w-w/o Anth. GHG alone Latitude (degrees)

Modeled (4 y avg.) and Radiosonde Vertical Temp. (K) dif. w-w/o GHG and Aerosols Radiosonde data Angell et al. (1999) Temperature deviation (K) Altitude (km) mb ≈ 9-16 km mb ≈ km

Feb. & Aug. California Column BC Dif. w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Column POM Dif. w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Column SOM Dif. w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Column S(VI) Dif. w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Column NO 3 - Dif. w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Column NH 4 + Dif. w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Column Aerosol LWC Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Column Total Aerosol Dif. w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Aerosol 550 nm Optical Depth Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Cloud 550 nm Optical Depth Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Cloud 550 nm Scattering Optical Depth Profile Dif. Pressure (hPa)

Down-Up Surface Solar Radiation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Down-Up Surface Thermal-IR Radiation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Irradiance Profile Dif. Over California Pressure (hPa)

Near-surface Temperature Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Zonal Temp. Profile Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Altitude (km)

Temperature Profile Dif. Over California Pressure (hPa)

Near-surface RH Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Zonal RH Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Altitude (km)

Cloud LWC Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Cloud Liquid and Ice Profile Dif. Over California Pressure (hPa)

Modeled vs. Measured Feb Precipitation Latitude (degrees)

Modeled Feb vs. Measured Feb. Clim. Prec. Latitude (degrees) Data courtesy of Guido Franco

Precipitation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Baseline BC in precipitation Latitude (degrees)

SCAB Column Total Aerosol Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

SCAB Aerosol Optical Depth Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

SCAB Cloud Optical Depth Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Cloud 550 nm Scattering Optical Depth Profile Dif. Pressure (hPa)

SCAB Down-Up Surface Solar Radiation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

SCAB Downward UV Radiation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

SCAB Near-Surface OH Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

SCAB Down-Up Surface Thermal-IR Radiation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Irradiance Profile Dif. Over SCAB Pressure (hPa)

SCAB Near-Surface Temperature Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Temperature Profile Dif. Over SCAB Pressure (hPa)

SCAB Baseline Precipitation Latitude (degrees)

SCAB Precipitation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)

Summary Globally-averaged surface ocean pH may have decreased from about 8.25 to 8.14 from 1751 to 2004 Under the SREAS A1B emission scenario, pH may decrease to 7.85 in 2100, for an increase in the hydrogen ion by a factor of 2.5 since Ocean acidification may increase concentrations of atmospheric acids and decrease those of bases, although the magnitude is uncertain. Three global simulation results suggest a warming due to ff+bf BC of to +0.3 K in the 5- to 10-year average with a range of K to +0.5 K Maximum warming and cooling due to anthropogenic GHGs and aerosols exceed those of GHGs alone. Aerosols act on top of GHGs to enhance extreme warm and cool climate conditions. Modeled aerosol particles and gas-phase precursors appear to decrease precipitation in mountainous regions and increase it beyond the mountains, cool surface-air temperatures, slightly increase atmospheric temperatures, reduce solar and UV radiation and OH, and increase thermal-IR radiation to the surface in California.