Communication of downscaled, probabilistic seasonal forecasts and evaluating their impact on farmers’ management and livelihood outcomes K.P.C. Rao – ICRISAT.

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Main recommendations & conclusions (1)

Presentation transcript:

Communication of downscaled, probabilistic seasonal forecasts and evaluating their impact on farmers’ management and livelihood outcomes K.P.C. Rao – ICRISAT Jim Hansen – CCAFS, IRI Emerita Njeru – KARI, Katumani William Ndegwa - KMD

Hypothesis Since many farm management decisions are taken without knowing what the season going to be, advance information about the possible seasonal conditions will help farmers in making more informed decisions

Key constraints addressed Lack of awareness about seasonal climate forecasts and their reliability Misperceptions about the climate and its variability Lack of understanding about the probabilistic nature of forecast information Non-availability of information in a format that can easily be understood by the farmers

Methods The study was conducted in Wote division, Makueni district, Eastern province, Kenya during the short rain season Study treatments include – Control – Two day training workshop – Interpreting and presenting seasonal forecast information in the form of an agro-advisory – Training workshop along with advisory

Methods A total of 117 farmers (61% women) were involved in the study Farmer response to climate information was assessed by conducting three surveys – Before training or providing forecast information – During the season – After the season

Observed responses Treatment Area cultivated (ha) Investment (Ksh/ha) Yield (kg/ha) PSES Control (T1) Training workshop (T2) Agro-advisory (T3) Training workshop and advisory (T4)

Expectation of the season Village/treatment Women farmersMen farmersAll NoYesNoYesNoYes Control (T1) Training workshop (T2) Agro-advisory (T3) Training workshop and advisory (T4)

Usefulness of climate information Village/treatment Amount willing to pay (Ksh/season) WomenMenAll Training workshop (T2) Agro-advisory (T3) Training workshop and advisory (T4) All villages

Conclusions For effective utilisation of climate information, there is a need to enhance the understanding of the users about the climate and uncertainties associated with it Workshop based capacity building is an effective means by which better understanding of climate variability and options available to manage it can be promoted Forecast information provides a basis for farmers to plan and make best use of the climate Advisories are an important means to provide this information but need to be more location specific Focus should be on regions where predictability is good and regions where climate risks are a major constraint to productive agriculture

Thank you for your attention