Transparency and central bank communication Speech by Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad at a seminar in Banca d’Italia, Rome, 4 November 2008 Economic Bulletin.

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Presentation transcript:

Transparency and central bank communication Speech by Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad at a seminar in Banca d’Italia, Rome, 4 November 2008 Economic Bulletin 2/2008

Chart 1a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart, from MPR 2/08. Per cent Q1– 2011 Q4 Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1b Estimated output gap in the baseline scenario with fan chart, from MPR 2/08. Per cent Q1 – 2011 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart, from MPR 2/08. 4-quarter change. Per cent Q1 – 2011 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1d Projected CPIXE 1) in the baseline scenario with fan chart, from MPR 2/08. 4-quarter change. Per cent Q1 – 2011 Q4 1) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. See Staff Memo 2008/7 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 2a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and the alternative scenarios with a higher and lower demand, from MPR 2/08. Per cent Q1 – 2011 Q4 Higher inflation Lower inflation Source: Norges Bank

Chart 2b The output gap in the baseline scenario and the alternative scenarios with a higher and lower demand, from MPR 2/08. Per cent Q1 – 2011 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Higher inflation Lower inflation

Chart 2c CPIXE 1) in the baseline scenario and the alternative scenarios with a higher and lower demand, from MPR 2/08. Per cent Q1 – 2011 Q4 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. See Staff Memo 2008/7 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Higher inflation Lower inflation

Chart 3 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 1/08 and MPR 2/08. Per cent Q1 – 2011 Q4 Source: Norges Bank

Chart 4 Delta accounting of the interest rate path. Factors behind changes in the interest rate path from MPR 1/08 to MPR 2/08. Percentage points Q3 – 2011 Q4 Source: Norges Bank

Chart 5 Surprise effects in 12-month rate after policy announcements Source: Norges Bank Market rates as exogenous assumption Interest rate forecasts