Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES REGIONAL AIACC WORKSHOP Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES REGIONAL AIACC WORKSHOP Buenos Aires, Argentina August, 2004 BUILDING FLOOD RISK MAPS, ASSESING SALINITY FRONT DISPLACEMENT Angel Menéndez, Mariano Re, Martín Kind INA (Laboratorio de Hidráulica) UBA (Facultad de Ingeniería)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES PRESENTATION Floods in the future Model for salinity front THE END Model for flood maps Salinity front in the future

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FORCINGS Tributaries Tide Winds

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-2D (Re & Menéndez 2003)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES BOTTOM TOPOGRAPHY

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL RPP-2D Spatial domain = 1018 x 953 km Spatial step = 2,5 km Grid : 408 x 382 Temporal step = 60 s (720 steps/cycle) Bound. Cond. South : Astronomical tidal wave Bound. Cond. Tributaries : Discharge Wind : Field distribution

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES PURELY ASTRONOMICAL TIDE Oyarvide Station

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES CURRENT VELOCITIES Records by Hidrovía S.A.

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES STORM SURGE Oyarvide station, astronomical tide filtered out (November, 1989)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES STORM SURGE Buenos Aires station, including astronomical tide (May, 2000)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON OF MEAN WATER LEVEL Buenos Aires, decade 1990 (present)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL Buenos Aires

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON WITH TOPEX DATA Mean Summer conditions

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON WITH TOPEX DATA Mean Winter conditions

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES WATER LEVEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION CURVE Buenos Aires, decade 1990 (present)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION Buenos Aires

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RECURRENCE OF EXTREME WATER LEVELS Buenos Aires

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FLOOD RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FLOOD RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FLOOD RISK MAPS (Re, Menéndez & Ludueña 2004)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FUTURE SCENARIOS OF SEA LEVEL RISE

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES PREDICTION OF MEAN WATER LEVEL Buenos Aires

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE 2030

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE 2070

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE Summer 2070

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE Fall 2070

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE Winter 2070

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE Spring 2070

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES PREDICTION OF WATER LEVEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION Buenos Aires

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RECURRENCE OF EXTREME WATER LEVELS Buenos Aires

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS 2030

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS 2030

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS 2070

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SALINITY DISTRIBUTION (Guerrero et al. 1997)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES DOMAIN MODEL RPP-3D (Kind & Menéndez 2004)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL RPP-3D Spatial domain = 575 x km Spatial step = 2,5 km Grid : 230 x 195 x 8 Temporal step = 4 s (2D) and 320 s (3D) Bound. Cond. Ocean : Tidal wave from RPP-2D Bound. Cond. Tributaries : Discharge Wind : Field distribution

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES WIND FIELD Mean conditions Summer Winter

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON RPP-3D vs. RPP-2D

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-3D Comparison measurement-simulation (Winter) Surface Bottom

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-3D Comparison measurement-simulation (Summer) Surface Bottom

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-3D Longitudinal cut Comparison measurement-simulation (Winter)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-3D Longitudinal cut Comparison measurement-simulation (Summer)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 1 m INCREASE (maximum proyection for 2100) (Winter) Surface Bottom

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON Bottom, present Bottom, +1m (Winter)

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 1 m INCREASE Difference with present (Winter) Surface Bottom

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 1 m INCREASE Difference with present (Summer) Surface Bottom

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 4 m INCREASE (stabilization year 3000) (Winter) Surface Bottom

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 4 m INCREASE Difference with present (Winter) Surface Bottom

Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES Thank you...