2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Grain Market Update October 2008 Amy Stokes – Rural Logic (Aust) P/L Burnie Tasmania.

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Presentation transcript:

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Grain Market Update October 2008 Amy Stokes – Rural Logic (Aust) P/L Burnie Tasmania

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania Outline  International  Domestic  Tasmania  Grain Outlook 2008/09

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania International – World Wheat S & D

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania International – Wheat Futures Feb 2008

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania International – Corn (Feed Grain) June 2008

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania International - Canola/Soybeans – July 08 Soybeans Canola

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania US Stocks to Use/Prices /505/606/707/808/909/0 Wheat21% $ % $ % $ % $ % $6.25 ?? Corn20% $ % $ % $ % $5.00 7% $6.00 7% $5.50 Soybean9% $ % $ % $6.43 4% $ % $ % $12.50 Summary - Wheat recovering, but feedgrains and oilseeds still tight

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania Domestic Production – S & D WA NT QLD SA NSW VIC TAS TAS Crop Forecast 2008/09 Wheat 20.8 MT Barley 7.4 MT Canola 1.3 MT Wheat 6.2 MT Wheat 1.7 MT Wheat 1.6 MT Wheat 3.1 MT Wheat 7.8 MT Source: NAB Oct 08 Track $ 285 FOB $ 32 Export $ 317 Track $ 288 FOB $ 40 Export $ 328 Track $ 288 FOB $ 44 Export $ 332 Track $ 290 FOB $ 44 Export $ 334 Track $ 300 FOB $ 44 Export $ 344

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania Domestic – Grain Prices del Melbourne 2002 & 2006 – local droughts – Export driven

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania Tasmania  Quality & Supply  Freight & Fuel Levy  DPIE – IR 30 & Charges  TFES Scheme  FCL vs Bulk  Contracts – Spot vs Forward

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania Tasmania – Grain Pricing  Old CropDecember 08 Wheat & Barley availability – limited Protein – Tight supply  New CropJanuary 09 + Wheat MelbourneA $ 335 / MT Barley MelbourneA $ 280 / MT

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference Burnie Tasmania Good Luck – Any Questions?