Family Polarization and Child Inequalities SNS Stockholm September 1, 2014

Trends in Household Income Inequality. Disposable Incomes Gini 1980Gini 2000s%Change Denmark Norway Sweden France Germany Italy Spain UK US

Year Year Three+ years OneTwo Denmark France Germany Italy Spain U.K U.S The Persistency of Income Poverty in Families with Children. Kaplan-Mayer Survival Functions.

A Skill Profile of Tomorrow’s Workforce. % with only ISCED 1-2 (age 20-24) Mean Math score (native born) % below PISA minimum (Math) %Pisa ´Elite´ (Math) Denmark Finland France Germany Spain Sweden UK USA *)

The Immigrant Deficit in Different Countries (difference from country mean) Raw Immigrant Adjusted Immigrant Effect Effect Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Ireland Netherlands Spain Sweden UK US Source: PISA 2000 data files. Adjusted effect includes controls for: mother education, parental SEI, sex, and books in home.

Table 2.3. Women’s role in Household Income: Couples aged Earnings ratio; top/bottom quintile MenWomenHousehold Denmark France Germany Ireland NL Spain UK

Figure 8. Percent Dual Earner Couples in the US

The family-demografic U-turn and child welfare

Gender egalitarian countries Fertility 2010 Gender traditional countries Fertility: 2010 Denmark1.9Germany1.4 Norway2.0Italy1.4 Sweden1.9Portugal1.4 U.S.2.1Spain1.4

Acitivity Rate Mothers 1960 Activity rate Mother 2000 Divorce rate Cohort 1970s Divorce rate Cohort 1990s Single mom 1960 Single mom 2000 Low Educ High Educ The Polarization of Family Life. US Data

Gender egalitarian countries % change in CDR Gender Unequal countries % change in CDR Denmark- 4Germany 0 Iceland-28Ireland0 Norway-13Italy80 Sweden- 4Portugal190 US-30Spain267 Divorce Trends

The Socioeconomic Gradient of Divorce. United States

Low educationHigh Education Married in: US Example: Percent Divorced by Marriage Cohort

Figure 2.3. Trends in Marital Homogamy in the US by Income Quintiles.

Polarized Parenting? Ratio of Care Time: High versus Low Educated Parents MothersFathers Denmark Spain US1.21.7

Marginal effects of the interaction between maternal hours a day in childcare and parental education (Mundlak random effects model, controlling for mother fixed effects). N=886. Time investment reinforces SES inequalities of gymnasium line

Socio-economic gradient of parent inputs

Table 2.5. Probability that Sons end up in their Father’s Income Quintile. (Percentages) DenmarkSwedenUKUS Father´s Q Bottom Middle Top

Low Educated Father Effects: Do their kids make it to upper-secondary level? Controls for cognitive test scores, sex and immigrant status :odds ratios USAUKDenmarkNorwaySwedenGermany Cohort 1.115***.185***.449**.661*.320**.094*** Cohort 2.097***.153***.248***.447**.164***.067*** Cohort 3.133***.162***.213***.205***.091***.098*** Data source: IALS (International Adult Literacy Survey). Cohort 1 is born ; cohort 2, ; cohort 3, The cognitive test scores refer to reading comprehension. Reference group for estimations is fathers with ISCED 3 or more. Significance levels: * = 0.5; ** = 0.1; *** = 0.05 or better.

Table 1. Transitions Analysis for Upper Secondary (2 nd ) and Tertiary (3 rd ) Education. Bivariate Probit Selection Models (SILC) DKFranceItaly Spain UK 2nd3rd2nd3rd2nd3rd2nd3rd2nd3rd Father Low EGP Cohort * * **-.17***-.21***-.52***.01 Cohort *** -.19***-.13*-.31***-.08 Father Highest EGP Cohort ***6.78***.99**2.49***.14.36***.38***.48***.59***.32** Cohort **.38** ***.22.33***.38***.47***.27***.19*

Table : Results from OLS Regressions of Children’s Reading Abilities in Denmark βStandard errorStandardized beta Quality Care.123*** Poverty-.234*** Low birthweight Reading daily Divorce Boy-.210*** Low-educ Mother Hi-educ Mother.376*** Mother employed constant N3327

Figure 3 – Quantile Regression for Effect of School- or Center-Based Care on Reading at 5 th Grade in the U.S Center-based Quantile

Figure 1. Quantile Regression for Effects of High-Quality Child Care on Reading in Denmark