Earth System Science Partnership IGBPIHDP WCRP Diversitas Water Food Carbon Joint Projects on Global Sustainability

A partnership of three global environmental change programs September 2002

Global Carbon Project Mandate u Synthesis of knowledge of the global carbon cycle, within a coherent research framework u Coupling the biophysical and human dimensions of the global carbon cycle u Coordination of regional and national carbon programs in the context of a global effort

Anthropogenic C sources u Earth at night

1.Patterns and Variability u What are the geographical and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks? 2.Processes, Controls, and Interactions u What are the controls and feedback mechanisms – both anthropogenic and non- anthropogenic – that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle on scales of years to millennia? 3.Carbon Futures u What are the likely dynamics of the global carbon cycle into the future? Global Carbon Project Science Themes

Global Carbon Project Operational structure u Scientific Steering Committee (15 members plus 3 co-chairs) u Executive Subcommittee of SSC u Offices (each with an executive officer, possibly shared with another program) Australia US Japan Others u Working with other projects and stakeholders GCP Framework document: now under community review Joint implementation (SCOPE, IGCO, Ocean CO2, …) Scientific Advisory Committee

Global Carbon Project Implementation Community workshops (Isle sur la Sorgue; Lisbon; Durham) Jun 2001Prospectus published Jul 2001Global Change Conference (Amsterdam): SSC appointed Dec 2001First SSC meeting (San Francisco) Mar 2002Framework document released for review Mar 2002Sink Attribution Workshop (Canberra) May 2002Carbon Data Assimilation (CDAS) Workshop (Boulder) Sep 2002Wengen Workshop on Terrestrial C Sinks (Austria) Aug-Nov 2002Launch offices (Australia, US, Japan) Nov 2002"Biophysical and Human Influences on C cycle" Workshop (Tsukuba) Nov 2002Second SSC meeting (Tsukuba) Dec 2002Publish Framework document Jan 2003SCOPE-GCP Rapid Assessment of the C cycle (Brazil) Jul 2003START-GCP Meeting on Urbanisation and the C cycle (Boulder)

Food Systems Given changing demands for food, how will climate change additionally affect food provision and vulnerability in different regions and among different social groups? How might different societies and different categories of producers adapt their food systems to cope with climate change against the background of changing demand? What would be the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of such adaptations? GECAFS logo

Climate Change Food Provision Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Theme 2 Adaptations Adapted Food Provision Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks Changing Demand Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks Food Systems: Themes and Structure

GECAFS logo FIRST GENERATION STUDIES: IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE Scenarios Macro-Climatic Change First-Order Impacts: (Regional Agro-climatic Properties) Second-Order Impacts: (Agric. Land Suitability and Crop Yields) Higher-Order Impacts: (Farm and Regional Production)

GECAFS logo Integrating Climate Impacts and Food Security Research FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY Capacity to cope with & recover from CC Climate Change: Type, frequency & magnitude of threats Exposure to CC Societal Change Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc RESILIENCE

Water Resources What are the relative magnitudes of global scale changes in the global water system due to human activities and environmental factors (e.g, climate change)? What are the main mechanisms by which human activities are affecting the global water system? To what extent is the global water system resilient and adaptable to global change (e.g., climate change, biodiversity, economic and management changes)? Image needed