Planning for NOAA’s Climate Interests US CLIVAR SSC Meeting “Planning for US CLIVAR Post-2013” Silver Spring, MD January 9, 2012 Sandy Lucas ESS Program Manager NOAA Climate Program Office

NOAA's Mission Science, Service, and Stewardship To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts, To share that knowledge and information with others, and To conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources. 2

NOAA Line Offices National Ocean Service National Weather Service National Marine Fisheries Service National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service NOAA Research (OAR) The goals of U.S. CLIVAR include: Identifying and understanding the major patterns of climate variability on seasonal, decadal and longer time scales and evaluating their predictability; Expanding our capacity in short term (seasonal to interannual) climate predictability and searching for ways to predict decadal variability; Better documenting the record of rapid climate changes and the mechanisms for these events, and evaluating the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future; Evaluating and enhancing the models used to project climate change due to human activity, including anthropogenically induced changes in atmospheric composition, and: Detecting and describing any climate changes that may occur.

NOAA Climate Lab/Centers National Ocean Service National Weather Service National Marine Fisheries Service National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service NCEP PMEL AOML NOAA Research (OAR) NCDC NOAA Climate Labs Colored names have scientists or managers involved in US CLIVAR panels or working groups. The goals of U.S. CLIVAR include: Identifying and understanding the major patterns of climate variability on seasonal, decadal and longer time scales and evaluating their predictability; Expanding our capacity in short term (seasonal to interannual) climate predictability and searching for ways to predict decadal variability; Better documenting the record of rapid climate changes and the mechanisms for these events, and evaluating the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future; Evaluating and enhancing the models used to project climate change due to human activity, including anthropogenically induced changes in atmospheric composition, and: Detecting and describing any climate changes that may occur. NODC GFDL Climate Prg Office ESRL

NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP) Developed through engagement with NOAA stakeholders and employees Released: Dec 2010 NOAA's Mission: Science, Service, and Stewardship Vision: Resilient Ecosystems, Communities, and Economies NOAA's Goals: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Weather-Ready Nation Healthy Oceans Resilient Coastal Communities and Economies NOAA's Enterprise Objectives: Science & Technology Enterprise Engagement Enterprise Organization & Administration Enterprise NGSP represents our assessment of the highest priority opportunities for NOAA to contribute substantially to the advancement of society. extensive consultations with NOAA employees and our stakeholders—the extended community of partners and collaborators in the public, private, and academic sectors who contribute to NOAA’s mission. Read or download the plan: www.ppi.noaa.gov/ngsp/

Goal: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts Objective 1: Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts Objective 2: Assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service, and stewardship decisions Objective 3: Mitigation and adaptation efforts supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services Objective 4: A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions

Objective: Improved scientific understanding - Five-year Evidence Of Progress Over the next five years, evidence of progress toward this objective will include: More comprehensive knowledge of greenhouse gases and other climate forcing agents; Climate observing systems are sustained and the state of the climate system is routinely monitored; Improved basis for confidence in understanding key oceanic, atmospheric, hydrologic, biogeochemical, and socioeconomic components of the climate system and impacts;

Objective: Improved scientific understanding - Five-year Evidence Of Progress Advances in climate modeling leading to improved scientific understanding and a new generation of climate predictions and projections on global to regional scales and from monthly to centennial time scales; Increased confidence in assessing and anticipating climate impacts; and Quantitative short- to long-term outlooks and projections of Arctic sea ice.

Benefits of US CLIVAR to NOAA Serves as a bridge between the research community and the Federal funding agencies Organizes the research community to establish the needs and requirements for future scientific advancement and express where additional resources are needed. Interests specific to NOAA: predictions/projections, intraseasonal to interannual predictability, decadal predictability, process studies, ocean observations Examples (from Climate Observations): NOAA will continue to need updated requirements for observation systems (e.g. OOPC, GCOS mechanisms) NOAA will continue to look to the research community to initiate new observing activities (e.g., TAO, PIRATA, Argo arguably all emerged from research programs) NOAA will need support in the area of technology development (e.g., Argo)

NOAA’s Engagement in US CLIVAR Past and current successes: Process Studies Past: EPIC, NAME, VOCALS Current: DYNAMO, CPTs Modeling CMEP 1 & 2, CMIP5 Ocean Observations Argo Future: NOAA would like to see continued engagement and help coordinating with the research community One example: Model-observation activities: feedback of modeling and research community on observing efficiencies and design (e.g., what mechanisms can provide feedback from models/assimilation systems to observing strategies and plans?) items listed are examples and not intended to be all-inclusive.  Hence, the desire for future coordination of model-observation activities is only one of a number of engagement paths. 

Thank You Sandy.Lucas@NOAA.gov NOAA Climate Program Office It has been a pleasure to discuss some of NOAA’s climate activities and plans with you. I look forward to working with you and will be happy to answer any questions you may have. Thank you.