Reading… Writing…. Arithmetic….. Simplify to Quantify Bernard F. Pettingill, Jr., PhD Palm Beach Gardens, FL October 2010 Las Vegas 1

INTRODUCTION 2

Background Contact Points Terms of Art Presentation - Putting It All TogetherOutline 3

BUTCHERBAKER CANDLESTICK- MAKER JACKJILL Juror Profile 4

5 Potential Jurors Keep Estate Tax Get Rid of Estate Tax

Banker Engineer Nurse Practitioner Arms Crossed / Legs Age Factor Note Takers Sleeper Questions from Jurors 6Jury

New Orleans Military HS Catholic / Ivy League College / Ph.D. England (Foreign) Professor (Medical School - 4 yrs) Articles Three Kids - Teacher / Empathy Organizations Court TV / Congress Two Grandkids 7Hooks

8 CREDIBILITY

Jury Awareness Posture / Clothes / Watch / Car / Truck Body Language - Rocket Clemens; McGuire Out of the Box Permission 9

Life Expectancy / Work Life Expectancy Inflation Measures - (Local News Stories) Medflation Interest Rates (IRR) Consumption Expenses Replacement Services at Home Paradox of Thrift Economic Terms 10

CPI Typical Market Basket 95 Locations Twice / Month 211 Consumer Goods Average Prices 11

CPI - cont. 1. Food & Beverages 2. Housing 3. Apparel 4. Transportation 5. Recreation 6. Education & Communication 7. Other Goods & Services 8. MEDICAL CARE 12

13 LOCAL NEWSPAPER

GIGO PRN QD / BID / TID DUCES TECUM CETERIS PARIBUS SWAGAbbreviations 14

OLD INDICATORS AUTO HOUSING RETAILForecasting 15

NEW INDICATORS WAL-MART STARBUCKS APPLE NETFLIX PAWN SHOPS ANIMAL RESCUE LEAGUE McDONALDS DOLLAR STORE Forecasting - cont. 16

Rates Discounting to PV - Recent Historic Rate Alaskan - Total Offset Nominal Rate / Average Rate - 25 yrs 17

JUNK DOWN MUNIS DOWN CORPORATE DOWN TREASURIES 18 Discount Rates

Verdict Bartow 3/ $65 M

Life Expectancy Census Data Optimal Care - Based on L.E. Census Data Optimal Care - Based on L.E. 20

LIFE EXPECTANCY LESSON 1 = 2.9 =

Classification of Economists Labor Public Policy Financial Labor Public Policy Financial Agricultural Behavioral Health/Medical Agricultural Behavioral Health/Medical 22

23 Not The Same

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ENGLAND, CANADA & SWEDEN INSURE 30+ MILLION PEOPLE - H.R AMERICAS AFFORDABLE HEALTH CHOICES ACT ELECTRONIC MEDICAL RECORDS Nationalized Health Care 25

New Technology Waste, Inefficiency & Fraud Drug Company R&D Aging Population New Technology Waste, Inefficiency & Fraud Drug Company R&D Aging Population Reasons for Cost Increases 26

ELECTIVE SURGERY WAITING LIST - HERNIA REPAIR RENAL DIALYSIS 55+ Yr Old, GREAT BRITAIN – DENIED…. DEAD Health Care - DILEMMA 27

SIXTY YEAR OLD MALE POSTAL WORKER SINGLE MOTHER OF FOUR CHILDREN EIGHTEEN YEAR OLD NEVER WORKED RETIRED PALM BEACHER Organ Replacement - DILEMMA 28

MEDICAL INFLATION RATES Current (NOW) = 3.5% Recent (10Yrs) = 4.0% Historic (25Yrs) = 5.0% LESSON 2 29

Medical Care Growth Rates 30

YEAR YEAR MEDICAL 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.5% MEDICAL 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.5% 31

AMERICAS AFFORDABLE HEALTH CHOICES ACT HR ?

1. Therapists / Nurses 2. Treating / Evaluating M.D.s 3. Continuation of Care Planner / Rehab Expert 4. Economist 1. Therapists / Nurses 2. Treating / Evaluating M.D.s 3. Continuation of Care Planner / Rehab Expert 4. Economist Sequence of Experts 33

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Continuation of Care Life Care Plan 35

Routine M.D. Visits Therapies ADLs Diagnostics Orthopedic Equipment Supplies Routine M.D. Visits Therapies ADLs Diagnostics Orthopedic Equipment Supplies Categories of Need Attendant CareAttendant Care 36

Boston Vs New Haven Large Med-Schools Well Informed M.D.s Same Region Country No Difference in Socio-Economic Status Boston Vs New Haven Large Med-Schools Well Informed M.D.s Same Region Country No Difference in Socio-Economic Status Treatment Patterns 37

White Female Age 2.0 Life Expectancy = 79.9 years 24 Hour Nursing Care (HOME) $30.50/Hour/LPN Discount Factor = 4.0% Example 38

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Current (NOW) = 3.5% Recent (10Yrs) = 4.0% Historic (25Yrs) = 5.0% 40 MEDICAL INFLATION

Current: Growth Rate = 3.5% Present Value = $17.5m Recent: Growth Rate = 4.0% Present Value = $21.2m Historic: Growth Rate = 5.0% Present Value = $31.1M 41RESULTS

42 INTEGRITY

Recent Life Expectancy Tables Medical vs. General Inflation Sample - Goods / Services 1940, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90s Recent Life Expectancy Tables Medical vs. General Inflation Sample - Goods / Services 1940, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90s Trial Charts 43

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Presentation Earning Capacity - Cistern Present Value - Car Loan Court Reporter Interruptions 9/11 - Security Jack Pot Justice / Home Cooking Earning Capacity - Cistern Present Value - Car Loan Court Reporter Interruptions 9/11 - Security Jack Pot Justice / Home Cooking 47

Verdict Fort Meyers - John Romano, Esq. Florida 12/2009 $44.9 M 48

Verdict Miami, FL 4/2010 $11.6 M 49

Verdict Florida 9/2010 $8.2 M 50

Verdict Florida 9/2010 $21.6 M 51

Verdict Little Rock, AR 9/2010 $20.1 M 52

Verdict - Ford Jackson, MS 9/2010 $131 M 53

Summary 3 Lessons LE MEDFLATION LESS IS MORE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 54

CONSULTING ECONOMIST PHONE (561) CELL (561) FAX (561) TOLL FREE (800) CONSULTING ECONOMIST PHONE (561) CELL (561) FAX (561) TOLL FREE (800) #93 Sandbourne Lane P.G.A. NATIONAL PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL BERNARD F. PETTINGILL, PH.D. 55

Homework - CSI Financial Records Tax Returns - Official IRS Records - Alignment, Dates, SS#, Signatures, Copies, Income / Expense Flow Past Meds Minimal Darden - (doc location: G drive) - CSI 56