GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS May 15, 2012 Presented by: SERGEY PALTSEV Principal Research Scientist.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The Southern Corridor John Baldwin.

Advertisements

Going nowhere? Will high energy prices change U.S. travel? David L. Greene Corporate Fellow Oak Ridge National Laboratory 87 th Annual Meeting of the TRB.

A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies Marten Westrup

key drivers of the energy future

Dokumentname > Folie 1 > Vortrag > Autor Potentials for Renewables in Europe Wolfram Krewitt DLR Institute of Technical Thermodynamics Systems.

© OECD/IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook 2012 Washington DC, 27 November 2012.

World Banks Energy Week Washington DC, 6 March 2006 Natural gas:bridging fuel for the next decades A global perspective Marcel Kramer, Chairman and CEO.

Hans Timmer and Richard Newfarmer World Bank December, 2006 Global Economic Prospects, 2007 Managing the Next of Globalization.

16 th April 2008 Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company Thierry PFLIMLIN President & CEO Total Oil Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd 2 nd ARF Seminar on.

EU LEGISLATION ON WASTE European Commission WORKSHOP ON EU LEGISLATION WASTE © 2010 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Waste in EU economy.

OMV Aktiengesellschaft Move & More. Romania as Future Member of the European Union Vienna, October 15, 2004.

Outlook for the steel market

World Energy Outlook 2013 Timur Gül

SABIC in Europe 1 The power to provide Future sources of PP supply in Europe Eric Hogenboom SABIC EuroPetrochemicals Business Unit Director PP.

Current State of the Industry General Aviation Manufacturers Association.

Korean Steel Industry 6 December st OECD Steel Committee - Kim, Sung-Woo/Korea Iron & Steel Association.

Remarks of Ron Binz Principal, Public Policy Consulting November 9, 2012 Denver.

Renewable Energy Workshop 2012 Global Market Impacts on Wind and PV Technologies A Presentation to the Bucknell University Renewable Energy Workshop –

Energy Security Sustainable, Affordable, Reliable, Access to Diverse Energy Supplies Wealth/Power/Influence Market Dynamics Energy Frontiers Spare Capacity.

Global LNG: New Supplies, Growing Demand

Flax Market Outlook 2011 and Beyond Flax Market Outlook 2011 and Beyond Jan 2011 Presented by: Chuck Penner.

Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin Gas-Power Linkages 2011 Electric Market Forecasting Conference, EPIS, Inc San Antonio, October.

Prepared by: Ken Otto Purvin & Gertz, Inc.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis American Gas Association Legislative Forum May 1, 2012| Miami, FL.

By Martín Gesualdi, Tecnolatina S.A, Suipacha 1111, Buenos Aires, Argentine, Phone/Fax ,

© OECD/IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook 2012 Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director, IEA Warszawa, 14 December 2012.

Canadas Natural Resources – Now and for the Future 1 North American Shale Gas Revolution Presentation to APEC By Dan Cowan – Petroleum Resources Branch,

Gas Hydrate An Emerging Resource for Americas Energy Future Art Johnson Hydrate Energy International.

© OECD/IEA The current picture A global oversupply.

© OECD/IEA 2012 Security of Supply: Developing Oil and Gas Resources in the European Arctic Bo Diczfalusy Director of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology.

Steve Baker President Natural Gas in Ontarios Energy Mix Seeing The Bigger Picture.

{. AMERICAN OIL ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ………… IN THE REAL WORLD Dr. John Anthony Scire, PhD, 6 February 2013.

Copyright The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole.

Page 1© Siemens Ltd All rights reserved Sustainability as an opportunity.

BI Marketing Analyst input into report marketing Report TitleTHE NEW SHALE GAS COUNTRIES Report SubtitleThe prospects for shale gas outside North America.

Is Asia the next growth engine? Probably, but not if rest of world doesn’t help. One region drags others down, e.g., euro banking problems. IMF: Growth.

“Energiewende” and cost mechanisms Charlotte Loreck Energy and Climate Division Öko-Institut e.V. Berlin for Heinrich Böll Foundation 5 December 2012.

BAU 2011 Europe’s building industry after the crisis – What now? Erich Gluch ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich BAU Information Talks on 28 October.

Adapting to a Changing Energy Environment Russ Girling, President and CEO, TransCanada Corporation May 15, 2012 STRIKING A BALANCE IN THE MIDST OF CHANGE.

Caspian Strategy Institute Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fatih Macit.

Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the.

Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c. Beijing, April 2012.

Asia’s Oil and Gas Outlook Mikkal E. Herberg The National Bureau of Asian Research IPAA 2005 Mid-Year Meeting San Francisco, California June 17, 2005.

James M. Kendell Energy Information Administration The Aspen Institute June 28, 2008 Aspen, Colorado Global Gas Outlook.

OIL PRICES In what has been defined as “The New Economy of oil”, oil prices in the past did not follow a steady trend, and the record shows a behavior.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis International Energy Outlook 2014 For Columbia University Center on.

WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

© OECD/IEA 2014 Medium-Term Gas Market Report International Economic Forum of the Americas, Montreal June 10, 2014 Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director,

Economic and Environmental Impacts of Increased U.S. Natural Gas Exports Kemal Sarica Wallace E. Tyner Purdue University July 28-31, 2013 ANCHORAGE 32.

Asia and Global Oil & Gas Markets and Geopolitics Mikkal E. Herberg The National Bureau of Asian Research Independent Petroleum Association of America.

INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY

Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas? Karel Dyba Ambassador of the Czech Republic to the OECD Presentation at the IEC Ostrava 2011 based on findings from.

Traditional Energy: Fossil, Nuclear and Hydro. Energy Consumption by Source (USA) EIA – Energy Information Agency (US government agency) Age of wood Age.

U.S. Energy Policy: The Burdens of the Past and Moving Forward John P. Banks Nonresident Fellow Brookings Institution September 25, 2012 BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN.

WHY DO WE NEED RUSSIA?. GLOBAL RESOURCE TRENDS By the end of the lesson you will; 1.Have reviewed the key consumption and and trends in stock fuels around.

International Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to 2035.

Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy.

An Atlantic Basin Energy System? Paul Isbell Calouste Gulbenkian Fellow Center for Transatlantic Relations Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced.

U. S. Shale Gas and Global Energy Dr. James L

Global energy shift Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean,

THE NEW GEOPOLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST THE U.S. AND CHINA'S COMMON INTERESTS IN A REGIONAL PEACE.

APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group Meeting Twentieth Meeting 4-6 November 2002 Seoul, Korea Yonghun JUNG, Ph.D Vice President Asia.

All Rights Reserved Prospect and Challenges in the World and Asian LNG Market September 10, 2013 The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Masakazu Toyoda.

ROLE OF GAS IN THE ENERGY MIX Dr Philippe A. Tanguy Total.

WORLD ENERGY PICTURE. Figure 1 World Energy Consumption Projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite world oil prices that are.

Energy Demand Outlook by Mohamed Ariff Based on Data from The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE What is the Cost of Not Having Nuclear Power or Carbon Capture and Storage While Still Stabilizing.

Sean Goldrick Paper Reviewed: World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA Report Topic: Energy/Climate Change.

NS4053 Fall Term 2013 Energy Security Forecast MAJ Chris Miller

Energy Efficiency and Renewables role in the future energy needs

Presentation transcript:

GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS May 15, 2012 Presented by: SERGEY PALTSEV Principal Research Scientist Massachusetts Institute of Technology STRIKING A BALANCE IN THE MIDST OF CHANGE May 13-16, 2012 Québec City, Québec (Canada)

MOTIVATION  Shale Gas  LNG and Global Market  Move from Coal to Gas  Move to Renewables  Economics vs Geopolitics

MAJOR POINTS Global natural gas use will grow from the current 110 Tcf to 160 Tcf in 2030, and Tcf in Gas markets are still regional (U.S., Europe, Asia) Integrated gas markets lead to an even greater use and relatively lower prices.

MAJOR POINTS (Cont.) Watch for surprises -U.K. gas -U.S. gas -Poland gas -China gas U.S. - $2-4, Europe - $8-10, Japan - $15: A case for long-term substantial U.S gas exports? -Maybe not. Shale gas in China might be a game changer -But perhaps not in the next decade

NATURAL GAS PRICES, BP (2011) Winter Prices: US – (Sept - $4; March - $2), UK - $10 (NBP on Oct 3 – $6.50; Feb 7 - $15.50, end of March - $9.40), Germany - $11, Japan - $15-16.

GLOBAL NATURAL GAS USE

NATURAL GAS RESOURCES Global Consumption: Tcf 2050 – Tcf Global Reserves: 6,600 Tcf (BP, 2010) Global Resources: World – 16,000 Tcf (plus shale gas in non-North America) Source: MIT (2011)

INTERNATIONAL GAS MARKET DEVELOPMENT, 2030 Regional Markets Source: MIT (2011) Global Market

NATURAL GAS IN EUROPE Source: MIT Joint Program Report 201 (2011) GHG policy and nuclear power reduction change the prospects

NATURAL GAS IN ASIA Source: MIT Joint Program Report 201 (2011) Even more uncertainty Government support Use in residential sector (heating and cooking) and industry

SHALE GAS RESOURCES Source: EIA (2011) No estimate for Russia or the Middle East Global Resources: 16,000 Tcf Additional Shale : 6,000 Tcf Global Resources: 22,000 Tcf Poland: IEA (2011) – 187 Tcf Poland Government (2012) Tcf; Might be up to 67 Tcf

SHALE GAS IN CHINA Source: EIA (2011)

(NO) SHALE GAS IN CHINA AND GLOBAL SUPPLY Source: Paltsev, Ejaz, O’Sullivan (2012)

SHALE GAS IN CHINA AND GLOBAL SUPPLY Source: Paltsev, Ejaz, O’Sullivan (2012)

CHINA GAS – POTENTIAL FUTURES Consumption Production Shale gas availability changes gas prospects in China

CHINA GAS – POTENTIAL FUTURES By 2050 China might become natural gas exporter Imports

MAJOR POINTS Global natural gas use will grow from the current 110 Tcf to 160 Tcf in 2030, and Tcf in Gas markets are still regional (U.S., Europe, Asia) Integrated gas markets lead to an even greater use and relatively lower prices. Watch for surprises -U.K. gas; U.S. gas; Poland gas; China gas U.S. - $2-4, Europe - $8-10, Japan - $15: A case for long-term substantial U.S gas exports? -Maybe not. Shale gas in China might be a game changer -But perhaps not in the next decade

THANKS ARE DUE Qudsia Ejaz Francis O’Sullivan Ernest Moniz John Reilly Henry Jacoby Tony Meggs Jim Jensen Picture: toonpool.com