Flood Risk in relation to Climate Change and Adaptation in the Netherlands Leonie Bolwidt Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management Rijkswaterstaat Centre for Water Management Toronto May 2008

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 2 Climate change scenarios, 2050

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 3 Sea level Rise (2100)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 4

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 5 Consequences Sea level rise The sea level continues to rise, also after 2100! Increase in coastal erosion Increase salt intrusion Maintain coastal defence Discharging river water to the sea becomes increasingly difficult

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 6 Rhine discharge at Lobith (2050)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 7 Extreme discharges on the Rhine Currently m3/s 2100 G - G+about m3/s W - W m3/s Limitation of the discharge capacity, due to flooding in Germany

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 8 Subsidence in 2050

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 9 Land use in 2050

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 10 Increase in flood risk from sea from the large rivers Increasing upward seepage Increase in economic value of (low parts) of the Netherlands

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 11 The National Adaptation Strategy (ARK) Combined forces of 4 Ministries (Departments) Association of Provincial Authorities Association of Netherlands Municipalities Association of Water Boards Non governmental organisations Private sector- branch org. and “champions” Individual Provinces, cities, water boards etc. Goal: Impuls to climate proofing the Netherlands Focus here on floods/high water

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 12 The ARK Programme Looking back: the milestones Triggered by Senate March ’05 Start and political backing: conference with Prime Minister Nov. ’05  ARK Programmedoc. approved by Council of Ministers March ’06 Consultation first draft strategy at three government levelsOct. ’06  Draft strategy (incl. first outline agenda)March ’07 Consultation Stakeholders – over 50 regular meetingsApr.-Jn ’07  Final strategy in Council of MinistersNov. ’07 Strategy in Parliament and SenateNov. ’07 Second national congress Nov. ’07 end of the strategy phase start of the agenda phase

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 13 The ARK process… Positioning the strategy Pisano Talenti Giotto Cathedral of Florence (bell tower)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 14 Giotto

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 15 Pisano

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 16 Talenti

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 17 Goal: RobustnessWide dikes FlexibilityEasy to reboot electr.generators AdaptabilityRapid proced., reserved space The National Adaptation Strategy Analysis and leading principles - 1 Situation: Probable trends Rise of sea level and temperat. Extreme eventsStorms, high river discharges Combinations of events Fundamental uncertaintyValidity of statistics

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 18 The National Adaptation Strategy Analysis and leading principles - 2 Risk management -Absolute safety does not exist -Prevention + reduce effects -Adjust risk & cost-benefit analysis for long term investments Natural systems -Use natural functions of soil, water and air, -Restore natural systems en buffering functions -Create win-win situations for large scale spatial structures (nature, water safety, tourism, landscape, economic activities)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 19 The National Adaptation Strategy General actions  Start a public campaign for raising awareness  Promote leading principles & stimulate research programs  Adjust procedures for decision making large scale developm.  Assess projects in progress  Review existing instruments (financial, legal)  Develop new instruments (revolving funds, stim. progr.)  Small scale interventions (“climate buffers”) and “icons”  Monitor & evaluate the “transitions”

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 20 1.Open debate Not: ‘for and by governments’ or a technocratic problem The National Adaptation Strategy Choices made in the process... 2.Ongoing, planned, future investments, plans, policies Not: just new investments and programmes 5.Mainstream in 10 years Not: blueprint or series of projects for the coming 50 years 4.Adaptation mainly by ‘combining work with work’ Not (yet): megaprojects just for adaptation 3.Innovation parallel to practice Not: sequential; first research, than policyframes, laws, implementation

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 21 The National Adaptation Strategy Mainlines and theme-specific actions  KNMI-scenario’s: no major shift in investmentplans in West Nl.  We will take up the challenge NOW on ALL major effects: 1. Safety: spatial reservat. (long term) and speed up investments (short term) Damage: more storagecapac.; experim. design, urban floodmngt; compart. 3. Quality of life/public health: green/blue veins in towns, subsid. restructr. 4. Nature: National Ecological Network: connect, transparent coat, EU-rules 2. Economy: reliable networks transport, electr.,water; key econ. areas access

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 22 Examples (innovative) solutions? Super dike in Japan

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 23 Examples (innovative) solutions? Climate robust spatial planning laws England

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 24 Examples (innovative) solutions? Freeways: high (compartments) or deep (landscape)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 25 Examples (innovative) solutions? Amphibian living

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 26 Examples (innovative) solutions?

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 27 Last comments.. We must start with anticipating on the coming changes instead of reacting after disasters! Examples from other countries of anticipating to climate change? Interested in the reports? Leave your address with me! Thank you for your attention!