1. The Netherlands in a Sustainable World Poverty, Climate and Biodiversity Se cond Sustainabilty Outlook Aldert Hanemaaijer, projectleader

2. 2 Approach First Sustanability Outlook 4 ‘policy rich’ scenario’s (based on different worldviews and values) Anything is possible Goals were implicit Risk of cherry picking Difficult to give robust options

3. 3 Approach Second Sustanability Outlook 1 Baseline Scenario (OECD) –No additional policy, like EU Climate Policy

4. 4 Approach Second Sustanability Outlook 1 Baseline Scenario (OECD) –No additional policy, like EU Climate Policy Existing goals –MDG’s: half poverty –EU 2 degrees climate –CBD: signifcantly reduce biodiversity loss Policy challenge = goal - trend Options to realise goals Worldviews to make options robust

5. 5 Assumptions Baseline Scenario Looking 35 years back and forward from 2005 Almost 9 billion people in 2040 World GDP tripples; GDP doubles per head Energy use + 75%; GHG almost + 50% Agricultural productivity + 40%

6. 6 The world is not enough For simultaneously: Foodsupply Biofuels Biodiversity conservation Climate Change Biodiversity loss

7. 7 Reasons for not realising the goals For biodiversity and climate change T < P * C Population x Consumption Technology One-sided emphasis in the short term Partial solutions Inadequate international cooperation

8. 8 Mankind develops … Africa lags behind

9. 9 … at the expense of biodiversity

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13. 13 Human development has an ecological price Further loss of biodiversity is inevitable

14. 14 MDG’s will not be reached in time Africa and South Asia lag behind

15. 15 Stimulating devlopment in poorest countries Investing in broad infrastructure  Education, health care, roads, energy, water, sanitation, etc. Abolish agricultural subsidies and phased opening of markets in the poorest developing countries Combining ODA funds to prevent fragmentation

16. 16 Climate requires strong international coalition By broadening the EU trading system

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18. 18 Biofuels put tropical nature and food supply under additional pressure

19. 19 There’s more then biofuels Lowering current EU ambitions for 2020 Biofuels versus energy from biomass Other options for transport: more efficient engines and second generation cars How to get second generation biofuels in a liberalising global market, not competing with food production (in less productive areas)?

20. 20 If the world would consume as the Dutch in 2040, all natural forests and grasslands will be gone

21. 21 Reduce biodiversity loss Raise agricultural production in developing countries Influence people’s diet (meat) Sustainable production changes via companies Targeted protection of and paying for (tropical) nature  IPCC for biodiversity Biodiversity for development ecosystem goods and services

22. 22 No sustainable development without Europe Right scale to work on international coalition Emission trading and level playing field for companies What is needed for SD on EU level? Broaden EU competences –To integrate policies for development, climate, biodiversity, trade, energy and agriculture Adjustment of decision making procedures –Unanimity at discussion

23. 23 Dutch citizens: “Government should take care” Solve the social dilemma –Support and willingness to pay for climate in NL and EU Products should be ‘OK’ –Sustainable consumption also asks for active role government Pricing and EU regulation needed –Pricing in rich countries has less effect

24. 24 Realising goals and human ambitions Fysical limits to realising all the global goals Big ambitions in a small world: what is possible? Will technolgy be enough? Also change in lifestyle! –‘Fat ego’ debate in NL on the question if everybody should be able to buy a SUV and a jaccuzi in the garden –Influencing behavior with pricing, sustainable chains or taking away ‘bad’ choices by regulation

25. Coherent international policy Willingness to pay Key role for Europe Leading government Technology + lifestyle Summary What is needed? Nederland en een duurzame wereld