1 Evaluation Plan for Geotargeted Efficiency Programs November 19, 2008

2 Describe draft plan – EVT/DPS collaboration (as requested) Gather feedback from this group – Reality Check – Ideas for improvement Purpose of this presentation

3 Evaluation Purpose Proof of concept – What level of savings can targeted EE deliver? – How fast? How much does it cost? – Are savings delivered to constrained circuits? How? – Through Process Evaluation – Verification of Savings Claims – Correlation of savings to the constraint in question

4 Not the Purpose! The Evaluation will NOT determine if a particular transmission or distribution investment has been deferred or avoided – (but results can help!)

5 DPS getting help (Phew!) Plan to hire a contractor – EEU Evaluation Budget Contractor to help develop selected areas of evaluation Kick off meeting where work plan is discussed

6 Evaluation Boundaries Four Original Geotargeted Areas – Southern Loop – North Chittenden – St. Albans – Newport/Derby 18 months of program activity – June/July 2007 – December 2008 Leverage DPS ongoing evaluations

7 Five-piece evaluation framework Target area selection, collaboration efforts Program implementation Savings verification Correlation of savings results at constraint Long term evaluation

8 Target Selection Process Eval Goal: Increase confidence that selected areas have undergone robust review Review and make recommendations as to – Broad process including all parties – Development of Target area proposals DPS Contractor/Surveys/Spring 2009

9 Target Selection Process Eval How were the original target areas chosen? How did information barriers and time constraints affect the choices made? What are perspectives of key parties regarding process & communication?

10 Implementation Process Eval Goal: Reflection to help inform decisions – Program design and implementation process – How overall budgets are best utilized DPS Contractor/Surveys/Spring 2009 – Surveys of EVT/Customers & Trade Allies/etc.

11 Implementation Process Eval What were lessons learned? – How were contract goals set and did they affect program design? – Are there opportunities to improve effectiveness? How did GT focus affect statewide delivery of efficiency resources? Were lost opportunities created?

12 Savings Verification Goal: Verify EVT GT Savings in each targeted area Current DPS Contractor June/July 2009 Researchable questions include: – How do GT area savings compare w/ non-GT? MWh and MW savings, cost/kWh, TRB, etc. – Are GT interventions a ‘no regrets’ strategy?

13 System Impact Evaluation Goal: Determine EE savings correlation to particular circuit DPS Contractor - Analysis of Utility & Verification data – What is available? July - October 2009

14 System Impact Evaluation What are trends shown by substation data analysis? – Before/during/after implementation of GT services? – Compared to forecasted load growth? Is it possible to detect GT impacts at substation level? Were there other influences that significantly affected circuits positively or negatively?

15 Long-term evaluation questions Not necessarily answered in the next year or by this process What is correlation between savings at ISO peaks vs. local/VELCO peaks? How do we verify current T&D capacity assumptions and track any deferral decisions? What additional information is necessary to help assess effectiveness of GT programs? Others?

16 The End Thoughts/Ideas/Questions? THANK YOU! TJ Poor Department of Public Service