Global Competition John Connors Bozeman July 20131
Agenda Global Context America’s Big Challenges Big Opportunities Texas vs. California – Two paths and a choice Montana
Global Context
A Look back
Growth Rates Matter – A lot! Bozeman Keynote5
American IT = Flat World Bozeman Keynote6
7 China’s Rise – Factory to the world
R&D – Race for the Future Bozeman Keynote8
STEM – Asia Serious; U.S. – Needs Immigrants Bozeman Keynote9
Source: International Monetary Fund, United Nations, and World Bank Bozeman Keynote10 A World Transformed
Shenzen vs Bozeman Keynote11
1980 vs Top Market Cap Companies Bozeman Keynote12
America’s Big Challenges
Astounding Federal Profligacy Bozeman Keynote14
Federal Spending vs. Median Income Bozeman Keynote15
U.S. Debt Per Person Bozeman Keynote16
Federal Spending as a Household Bozeman Keynote17
Interest on Debt : How Many States Larger? Bozeman Keynote18
Average Interest Rate by Decade – Time Bomb! Bozeman Keynote19
Growth and Energy : 1.0 Correlation Bozeman Keynote20
Energy Reality vs Current Policy Bozeman Keynote21
World’s Highest Corporate Tax Rate Bozeman Keynote22
Regulation Rampage 2012 Federal Register—the official directory of regulation—78,961 pages ; ,812 pages; ,620 Growth in US Economy = 12x (inflation adjusted); Federal Register growth 30x Last time regulation was cut was under Ronald Reagan - number of pages in the Federal Register fell by 31%. Surprise! Real GDP grew by 30% in that same period. Lasted just eight years. Since 1993, 81,883 new rules have been issued. In the past 10 years, the "final rules" issued by our 63 federal departments, agencies and commissions have outnumbered laws passed by Congress 223 to 1. Right now there are 4,062 new regulations at various stages of implementation, of which 224 are deemed "economically significant," i.e., their economic impact will exceed $100 million. The cost of all this -, $1.8 trillion annually—that's on top of the federal government's $3.5 trillion in outlays, so it is equivalent to an invisible 65% surcharge on your federal taxes, or nearly 12% of GDP Costs of regulation for small businesses (those with fewer than 20 employees) are 36% higher per employee than they are for bigger firms Bozeman Keynote23
Academic Progress Non-Existent Bozeman Keynote24
Labor Productivity Waning Bozeman Keynote25
Opportunity Destroyed
Job Growth Way Below Trend
Competitiveness Steep Decline Bozeman Keynote28
Big Opportunities
Waves of Innovation Coming
USA - Energy Superpower Bozeman Keynote31
Major Energy Cost Advantage Today Bozeman Keynote32
33 Large Scale Re-Shoring at Hand
Spending vs. Tax Revenue – Still Time to Stop Permanent Decline Bozeman Keynote34
Growth Only Cure Bozeman Keynote35
Texas vs. California – A Real Live Laboratory Bozeman Keynote36
Capital Flows to Where it is Treated Well Bozeman Keynote37
More Debt = Less Opportunity Bozeman Keynote38
More Wealth Creation Bozeman Keynote39
More Jobs Bozeman Keynote40
Less Misery Bozeman Keynote41
Montana
MT - Decent Position for Breakout Bozeman Keynote43
Bozeman Keynote44 Gross State Product
Top States for Business – What Matters Bozeman Keynote45
Global Reading Performance Bozeman Keynote46 Montana
Global Math Performance Bozeman Keynote47 Montana United States Average
Montana Social Capital
Thomas Sowell Bozeman Keynote55