Why Flood Warnings Fail Too Often: an Australian View Chas Keys and Michael Cawood

Flood Warning Important in creating a potential for damage mitigation Important in creating a potential for damage mitigation Well established in Australia (Bureau of Meteorology predictions for 40+ years in some locations) Well established in Australia (Bureau of Meteorology predictions for 40+ years in some locations) Tradition of inter-agency collaboration (Bureau, water agencies, S/TESs, local government) also exists Tradition of inter-agency collaboration (Bureau, water agencies, S/TESs, local government) also exists

Flood Warning - continued ’Best-practice' manual on flood warning published ’Best-practice' manual on flood warning published But criticisms often heard – eg. of accuracy, meaningfulness But criticisms often heard – eg. of accuracy, meaningfulness

Some Generalisations about Flood Warning Services in Australia

Flood Warning - continued 'Post-prediction' elements of the warning task not consistently well developed (interpretation, value-adding, dissemination) 'Post-prediction' elements of the warning task not consistently well developed (interpretation, value-adding, dissemination) Much evidence of community confusion; flood losses greater than necessary Much evidence of community confusion; flood losses greater than necessary Agencies other than the Bureau could do more to build on investment in flood prediction Agencies other than the Bureau could do more to build on investment in flood prediction

The Problem Warning task not always well understood by S/TESs and councils or given high priority; responsibilities sometimes not clear Warning task not always well understood by S/TESs and councils or given high priority; responsibilities sometimes not clear Flood intelligence lacking or poorly used Flood intelligence lacking or poorly used Bureau predictions occasionally ignored Bureau predictions occasionally ignored Poor conceptualisation, poor message content Poor conceptualisation, poor message content

The Problem - continued Messages often don’t answer the key questions Messages often don’t answer the key questions  Will I be affected and if so by how much?  What can I do to safeguard my family and property? ‘Consumers' not well engaged ‘Consumers' not well engaged Fear of 'over-warning' Fear of 'over-warning' 'Political' interference 'Political' interference

Some Suggestions Bolster agency commitment and understanding Bolster agency commitment and understanding Develop flood intelligence and use in warning Develop flood intelligence and use in warning Develop 'pre-written' messages (prediction, consequence, action) Develop 'pre-written' messages (prediction, consequence, action) Better engage flood prone communities Better engage flood prone communities Develop multi-channeled dissemination Develop multi-channeled dissemination Improve use of broadcast radio Improve use of broadcast radio

In Summary Reform needed Reform needed  Need to get full value from recent technical advances and capital investments in FWS  Is possible with changes in agency mindsets Revolution in thinking and commitment of energy required Revolution in thinking and commitment of energy required Better warning will help people manage their safety and asset protection during floods Better warning will help people manage their safety and asset protection during floods To warn well is not expensive To warn well is not expensive

Why Flood Warnings Fail Too Often: an Australian View Chas Keys and Michael Cawood