University of Warwick 30th April 2004 Proposals for a Longitudinal Survey of Ethnic Minorities for the UK – results from a scoping study Anne Green University of Warwick

30th April 2004 Context and Scope of Study l Context: general acceptance of value of longitudinal data, and of need for more longitudinal data sets l Lack of data on ethnic minority groups repeatedly identified as a gap in provision that should be filled l Timing: January-May 2003 l Objective: To assess (and, if appropriate) develop the case for a new longitudinal study of ethnic minorities in the UK. This involved: l identifying scientific benefits of a new survey l identifying key research issues l identifying and assessing existing longitudinal data sources for ethnic minority research l considering design issues and options

University of Warwick 30th April 2004 Types of Longitudinal Data l Repeated cross-sectional surveys – LFS l ‘Quasi-cohort’ analysis of cross-sectional surveys l Retrospective studies – Family and Working Lives Survey l Panel studies – BHPS l Cohort studies – NCDS, BCS70, Millennium Cohort Study, YCS, Longitudinal Study of Young People in England l Linked administrative/census records – ONS Longitudinal Study l N.B. these categories are not mutually exclusive l Most frequently used longitudinal data sources – LS, BHPS; LFS next most frequently mentioned

University of Warwick 30th April 2004 Key Questions for Research l Distinction between ‘ethnicity as a variable’ and ‘ethnicity as an issue’ l 5 key questions for research on ethnic minorities using longitudinal data: 1)What is the extent of, and what are the processes bringing about, equality and diversity within and between ethnic groups, and how have patterns of ethnic difference and (dis)advantage changed over time? 2)What is the experience of integration, and how does this vary within and between groups? 3)How do identities change over time? 4)How does ‘ethnicity’ play out in everyday lives of individuals? 5)How does the process of family formation vary by ethnic group, & how are such family formation processes changing over time?

University of Warwick 30th April 2004 Needs for Data - Topics of Interest l Changing patterns of fertility and mortality l Family dynamics l Progress through educational system and educational achievement l Transition from school to work l Unemployment stocks and durations l Labour market experience l Persistence of poverty and dependence on benefits l Language ability l Religion l Cultural assimilation l Inter-generational progress l Social and geographical mobility l Social networks l Diasporic networks l Changing cultural attitudes l Monitoring progress over time of different ethnic groups l Differences in causal relationships by ethnic group l Changing nature and experience of discrimination

University of Warwick 30th April 2004 Other Issues arising from Consultation l Consultees saw a longitudinal survey of ethnic minorities as addressing multifarious topics of interest BUT: l unlikely to be possible to cover all topics desired l different researchers prioritise topics differently l consultees lie along a continuum from ‘making do’ to enthusiastic support for a new survey l concerns that any new survey does not compromise existing data collection activities l need to maximise complementarity between any new longitudinal survey and existing data sources l Emphasis on potential gains to be achieved by mixing quantitative and qualitative methods

University of Warwick 30th April 2004 Practical Issues l Need to ‘get the sample right’ l Sample size – issues concerning: l the number of groups to be identified – growing diversity within ethnic groups emphasised, and general reluctance to focus on a small number of larger groups l trade-of between coverage of all ethnic minorities and achieving minimum usable sample sizes remains unresolved l the need for a White comparison sample l differential attrition creating a biased data set l Costs of translation into different languages l Extent to which proxy responses should be allowed l Geographical coverage – and an interest in location

University of Warwick 30th April 2004 Survey Design Options l Bespoke longitudinal survey including ethnic minorities and a White comparison group l A longitudinal ‘add-on’ to an existing cross- sectional survey (e.g. LFS) l An ethnic minority boost to an existing longitudinal survey l A freestanding longitudinal survey of ethnic minorities designed to complement an existing survey l Quasi cohort analysis of 2 nd, 3 rd, 4 th (and possibly 5 th ) PSI Surveys of Ethnic Minorities l Quasi cohort analysis of the LFS l Use of linked records from the ONS LS