Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy ( HELP ) GOAL To deliver social, economic and environmental benefit to stakeholders through sustainable and appropriate use of water by directing hydrological science towards improved integrated catchment management

l Rising international concern l Rising international concern, e.g.  UN ACC SWR 17 th Session, Paris Oct  BHS, Exeter, July 1998: request UNESCO/WMO consider 2 nd IHD l UNESCO Meeting, Wallingford, Dec  new policy-driven hydrological initiative needed l 5 th Joint UNESCO/WMO Int. Hydrology Conf., Geneva, Feb  HELP unanimously endorsed l WMO Congress, Geneva, June 1999  Terms of Reference for HELP Taskforce defined l First HELP Task force meeting, Tucson, Nov  45 participants define the scope and nature of HELP HELP: Background

WHAT IS THE REQUIRED PRODUCT? l WHAT IS THE REQUIRED PRODUCT? hydrological research which is directly responsive to water-related policy and development issues. WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE INITIATIVE? l WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE INITIATIVE? a global network of experimental hydrological catchments in a range of bio-climatic zones and socio-economic conditions freely exchanging data and understanding HOW WILL IT OPERATE? l HOW WILL IT OPERATE?  multi-disciplinary, involving mangers, policy makers and scientists  “bottom up” selection of the science to be undertaken  use existing networks where possible  complementary to other water-related international programmes  new data and knowledge, and capacity building, if required HELP: The Essence

BREAK THE “PARADIGM LOCK”: l BREAK THE “PARADIGM LOCK”: Water related observations will be collected in large catchments. Not just physical measurements (e.g. precipitation and river flow) but sociological, economic, and legal data BUILD A FRAMEWORK: l BUILD A FRAMEWORK: This will allow water law and policy experts, water resources managers and water scientists to work on water-related problems l FOCUS RESULTS: The involvement of stakeholders will produce results that are directly beneficial to society’s needs HELP: Key Objectives

Water and climate  Water and climate Water and food  Water and food Water quality and human health  Water quality and human health Water and the environment  Water and the environment Water and conflict  Water and conflict HELP: Policy Issues

1. Obtain observed time series for a variable (e.g. runoff) for a variable (e.g. runoff) 2. Express data as a frequency of occurrence spectrum of occurrence spectrum 3. Assume a “theoretical equation” for spectrum, with unknown parameters spectrum, with unknown parameters 4. Select "best" equation and optimize the unknown parameters the unknown parameters 5. Use knowledge of selected "best“ equation to estimate equation to estimate e.g. One in 10-year 7-day-average low flow, Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves, 100-year flood, etc…. HELP: Hydrological Risks

CURRENT BASIS OF HYDROLOGICAL MANAGEMENT AND DESIGN The statistical properties of the hydrological variables:  do not change with time  are adequately sampled over a few decades  are entirely “random” in origin

……based on outdated knowledge and technology Process hydrology Water managers and stakeholders ideasresearch understandingimplementation output design Isolated by lack of proven utility Isolated by legal and professional precedence Accepted practices HELP: The Paradigm Lock

l Flood prediction: USA: "Bulletin 17B" USA: "Bulletin 17B" (USGS, Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1976/81/82 ) "Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency“ [recommends use of the "log-Pearson Type 3" Distribution] UK: "Flood Studies Report" (National Environment Research Council, 1975 ) UK: "Flood Studies Report" (National Environment Research Council, 1975 ) "Volume 1, Hydrological Studies" [recommends the "Generalized Extreme Value" Distribution l Rainfall Frequency Spectra: "TP- 40" ( US Weather Bureau, 1961) "Rainfall Frequency Atlas for the US for Durations from hours and Return Periods of year." l Irrigation Needs: "IDP 24" ( UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, 1977) "Crop Water Requirements" HELP: Examples of Paradigm Lock

HELP: Dam Design/Management

Rainfall departures for Nov April 1998 (From BAMS, 1999, 80, ) HELP: ENSO Rainfall Anomalies

Correlation between rainfall and Atlantic cross ITCZ difference (From Servain, J. Geophys. Res. 1991) HELP: Atlantic SST and Rainfall

Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in 10 Warm ENSO Years ( ) Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in 10 Cool ENSO Years ( ) HELP: ENSO and Hurricanes

HELP: ENSO-Monsoon Linkage

HELP: Decadal Variability

HELP: Accelerating Water Cycle?

Observations may suggest sub-grouping the frequency distributions e.g. summer (convective) and winter (frontal) rainfall So far, only local and regional observations have been used to sub-group frequency distributions But global variability indices could be used HELP: Hydrological Risks

Global-HELP: The Global Interface Ocean Buoys

"How can knowledge, understanding, and predictive modeling of the influence of global variability and modeling of the influence of global variability and change on hydrological variables and change on hydrological variables and remotely sensed data be used to improve the management and design of water resource, the management and design of water resource, agro-hydrologic and eco-hydrologic systems?" agro-hydrologic and eco-hydrologic systems?" Global-HELP: Overarching Question

 How significant are the Links Between Global and Catchment Data? How significant is the relationship between the statistics of hydrological variables and observable global phenomena, and how does this change with location?  How Can Remotely Sensed Data and Advanced Data Transfer be Used? How can remote data capture, and advanced information transfer technologies best be applied to improve the management and design of water systems?  Can Seasonal-to-Interannual Variations be Used? How can predictions of seasonal-to-interannual variations be used to improve the management of water?  How Can Knowledge of Multi-Decadal Fluctuations be Used? How significant are multi-decadal fluctuations in climate, and how can knowledge of such fluctuations be used to improve the design of water systems?  How Can Predictions of Anthropogenic Climate Change be Used? What is the hydrological significance of anthropogenic climate change, and how can predictions of such change best be used to improve design of water systems? Global-HELP: Subsidiary Questions

 HELP is founded on a global network of catchments  National/local authorities can suggest catchments for inclusion  Catchments must:  Provide an opportunity to study a water policy or management issue for which hydrologic process studies are needed  Agree to gather and openly share baseline physical and relevant socio-economic-legal data within the network  Commit to providing adequate and sustained local capacity to further the programme  Benefits of inclusion are:  Access to new data acquisition and analysis methods  Sharing of expertise  Access to data from other HELP catchments  Opportunities for funding and capacity building HELP: How does it work?

 United Kingdom Lowland Catchment Research (LOWCAR) and Catchment Hydrology and Sustainable Management (CHASM) catchments  Japan Yasu River basin (HELP steering committee established and project planning started)  Germany: Global change of the water cycle (GLOWA) catchment on the Danube with federal government funding  International Water Management Institute (Sri Lanka) Existing water resource management catchments in Turkey, Asia and Africa  Other? HELP: Initial Activities

 International Hydrology Programme (IHP-VI) e.g. FRIEND Expand river flow understanding to the entire catchment water balance, including studies of water quality and social issues  World Water Vision and Global Water Partnership: HELP is a deliver mechanism for the “Framework for Action”  WCRP (e.g. GEWEX and CLIVAR) HELP will provide long-term, global, ground-based measurements to test large scale models and remote sensing techniques  IGBP: Interaction through initiatives,“Water Cycle”, “Food and Fiber”:  GTOS/WYCOS: Opportunities to interact constructively in global data collection HELP: Relationships

Water and Water and Water Quality Water and Water and Climate Food and Health Environment Conflict HELP : Policy Issues Global-HELP: Global Science Programs WCRPIGBP GCTEBAHC GEWEXCLIVAR

Water and Climate HELP : Policy Issue WCRP GEWEXCLIVAR Global-HELP: WCRP ProgramsCOLLABORATINGMECHANISMS 1.JOINT RESEARCH WCRP Focus: new understanding and predictive products HELP Focus: their potential use in catchment systems 2.Exchange of Data 3.Joint Scientific Meetings 4. Capacity Building in Developing Countries

Global-HELP: WCRP Programs

Global-HELP: GEWEX Global Data RadiationWater Vapor Precipitation

Global-HELP: GEWEX CSEs Rainfall departures for Nov April 1998 “By 2005, to demonstrate predictability in water resources on time scales of seasonal to annual” HELP/GEWEX Catchments

HELP Catchments Global-HELP: Extending Predictability

Global-HELP: GEWEX/CLIVAR Modeling GEWEX and CLIVAR: Multi-member ensemble runs of high resolution, global, coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models HELP: Calibration of these mesoscale predictions against catchment-specific climatology

Global-HELP: CLIVAR Linkage ·CLIVAR-GOALS will develop new, predictable, oceanic “indexes” with statistical links to the hydrological variables in individual HELP catchments that can be used to benefit water management  CLIVAR-DecCen will provide documentation and understanding of longer-term climatic variations in individual HELP catchments that can be used to refine the design criteria for water systems  CLIVAR-ACC will provide more credible and accurate predictions of long-term anthropogenic change in the climate system in individual HELP catchments that can be used to assess the vulnerability of current or proposed water systems