Status of Capacities for Climate Services Provision in the Caribbean Adrian Trotman Chief, Applied Meteorology and Climatology Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize 30 October to 1 November 2013, Belize City, Belize.

Train various categories of meteorological and hydrological personnel Train various categories of meteorological and hydrological personnel Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences Data collection, storage, & dissemination Data collection, storage, & dissemination Maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments Maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments Advise regional governments on matters related to meteorology & hydrology Advise regional governments on matters related to meteorology & hydrology Provide consulting services to industry Provide consulting services to industry Now Regional Climate Centre in demonstration phase Now Regional Climate Centre in demonstration phase Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology PRIMARY FUNCTIONS An arm of the Caribbean Meteorological Organisation

The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF)

Approach I 4

Approach II 5

Seasonal Rainfall Prediction with use of climate prediction models Global and Regional 3 to 6 months forecasts

Monthly Caribbean climate outlook newsletter Seasonal climate and impacts monitoring + Seasonal climate forecasts 7

Climate Monitoring Example Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network Focus next on temperature Monitoring

Wet season rainfall as a percentage of annual rainfall (Enfield and Alfaro, 1999). Seasonal Impacts Moving 10 year averages of rainfall at Edgecumbe, Barbados (Burton 1995). Impacts potentially more severe during drier phases. Why concerns over drought? Future dryer and warmer regime likely to increase frequency of drought episodes

Types of Drought

Response Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CDPMN) CDPMN launched under Caribbean Water Initiative CARIWIN in January 2009 expected to be fully operational by the end of 2010 Two Scales of Monitoring Caribbean Basin Country-level Precipitation status monitored using a number of indices Final precipitation status determined, by consensus, by a network of persons from different sectors, institutions and communities embracing the diversity in definitions and impacts of drought Short term and seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide a projection of future drought (1 - 6 months possible)

M ONITORING : Caribbean SPI and Deciles (Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network) P REDICTION : Caribbean seasonal precipitation outlook (CIMH and CariCOF) Depicting the Drought 12

In total contrast to 2010, the 2011 and 2012 dry seasons were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned out 13

CARICOM/Brazil programme in DRR Drought Implemented by CIMH Pilot Countries: Grenada, St. Lucia, Jamaica Training in drought monitoring and planning (assisted by NDMC) Provision of monitoring instruments (illustrative) Upgrade of CWM Draft Implementation plans for DEWIS (to Cabinet)… In the context of a Drought Management framework

Framework for National Drought Management Focus on Drought Early Warning & Information Systems

Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI) An example of Weather and Climate Services

CAMI Funded by the EU under the ACP S&T Programme Implemented by CIMH (Project Manager), CARDI, WMO and Ten National Meteorological Services to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information using an integrated and coordinated approach Information providers, users and media

Specific Activities of the Action 1 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction through analysis of long-term climatic data and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction models Use of rainy season prediction and near-real time weather information to support management decisions such as especially irrigation scheduling Working with the agricultural research and extension agencies in developing an effective pest and disease forecasting system

Preparation and wide diffusion of a user- friendly weather and climate information newsletters/bulletins Organization of regular forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information Building capacity of the Meteorological and Agricultural Services and research institutions Specific Activities of the Action 2

Developing forecasting systems for selected pests and diseases Statistical Analyses Crop and Irrigation Simultion

Supporting management decisions such as for irrigation scheduling and quantities Using Aquacrop and INSTAT for example

Preparation and dissemination of a user-friendly weather and climate bulletins and information Daily, week ten-daily, monthly, seasonally Print, radio, television, mobile/cellular, telecentres Means for Dissemination and Effective Communication – Strategy involving any media that can reach farmers in a language they can understand Also a Regional Monthly Bulletin – already 23 volumes

Regular forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information and feedback for Met Services Seasonal and weather Forecasting and information, drought, irrigation, crop simulation, pests and diseases 825 participants during 27 forums engaged

Effective Data Management and Observation System Rescue and Digitise hard copy information Data sharing, protocols All data to a centralised system Database developed – To pursue light versions – Synchrony Denser, strategic climate observation network, Global data systems, Remote Sensing IT support

Recommendations for Policy Makers Adequate Human Resources and structural changes at NMS that support weather and climate services for agriculture. Financial resources for developing competent staff to deliver agrometeorological services. Support specialised training for staff of Agricultural Extension Services in agrometeorology. Policies and protocols put in place within and between government, statuary departments and research institutions that encourage collaboration, data sharing and centralizing of agrometeorological data. Farmers forums to continue, led by the NMSs, particularly just prior to the beginning of the wet/hurricane and dry seasons. Radio and television programmes and newspaper articles can be used to supplement the awareness. Pursue a robust Strategy for Communication with the assistance of communication specialists, at the national and regional levels, ensuring efficient and effective dissemination of information. Financial resources made available for adequate, well maintained observation networks of higher spatial density that include Automatic Weather Stations. Particular emphasis should be placed on enhancing the quality and detail of biological information. National Tri-partite committees, made up of meteorologists, extension officers and farmers as core groups ratified by government and report to the Ministry of Agriculture, particularly at times of threatening weather and climate conditions. These committees can be either expanded to, or play an advisory to role of Disaster Risk Reduction Committees in Agriculture.

Potential in Water Resources Management

Developing Useful Hydrological Services From Weather and Climate Science High-resolution weather and climate scenarios are used in conjunction with hydrological models to predict water balance and dynamics for complex topography – Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model – Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model – ParFlow (coupled with CLM and WRF) hydrologic model Operationalize predictions of spatial and temporal variability of climate-induced hydrologic changes – Short-term : generation of monthly, seasonal and annual hydrologic forecasts – Long-term : comprehensive projections of hydrologic impacts to year 2100 changes in hydro-climate variability and extremes causes of changes in extreme behavior – Near-term : decadal and multi-decadal hydrologic predictions including hydro-climatic predictions to year 2035

Climate Forecasts in Hydrological Terms Downscale to resolve mismatch in spatial and temporal scales Hydrologic models – solve equations subject to meteorological forcing – Compute water balance: runoff evaporation transpiration soil water storage percolation/recharge HYDROLOGICAL / CROP MODEL

Example Output Day of Year

Thank you