WCRP Overview

Two Problems in Climate Risk Management 1.Uncertainty in the projected impacts The British, he thought, must be gluttons for satire: even the weather forecast seemed to be some kind of spoof, predicting every possible combination of weather for the next twenty-four hours without actually committing itself to anything specific. David John Lodge, Changing Places It is in the very nature of probability that improbable things will happen. Aristotle, Rhetoric

Different types of uncertainty Imprecision Problem:not knowing what the exact outcome will be Solution:indicate probabilities Second-order uncertainty Problem:not knowing what the exact probabilities should be Solution:indicate probability ranges Intractability Problem:not knowing how to estimate the probabilities at all Solution:dialogue; don’t pretend to imprecision; identify tractable problems

Two Problems in Climate Risk Management 2.Good use of knowledge of uncertainty "Five to one against and falling..." she said, "four to one against and falling...three to one...two...one...probability factor of one to one...we have normality, I repeat we have normality." She turned her microphone off — then turned it back on, with a slight smile and continued: "Anything you still can’t cope with is therefore your own problem.“ Douglas Adams, A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy

The role of research is to: 1.Reduce the level and degree of uncertainty by improvements in: AccuracyWhat is going to happen? SaliencyWhy should I care? 2.Identify how the uncertain information can be used to inform decision-making. What can I do about it? DRR and Research

Decision-making across timescales

Mission World Climate Research Programme supports climate- related decision making and planning adaptation to climate change by coordinating research required to improve: (1)climate predictions and (2)our understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework ).

Main foci of WCRP research Observing changes in the components of the Earth system and in the interfaces among these components; Improving our knowledge and understanding of global and regional climate variability and change, and of the mechanisms responsible for this change; Assessing and attributing significant trends in global and regional climates; Developing and improving numerical models that are capable of simulating and assessing the climate system for a wide range of space and time scales; Investigating the sensitivity of the climate system to natural and human-induced forcing and estimating the changes resulting from specific disturbing influences.

WCRP Grand Challenges Provision of skillful regional climate information Sea-Level Change and its regional implications Cryosphere response to climate change The role of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation in climate sensitivity Water availability and distribution in a changing climate Science foundation for prediction and attribution of extreme events

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13 Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX IPCC AR5 Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment 5 – CMIP5 IPCC AR5 Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Major WCRP Climate Prediction & Projection Experiments sea ice, stratosphere Arctic Antarctic Africa

GEWEX Science Question 3 How does a warming world affect climate extremes, and especially droughts, floods and heat waves? How well are models able to handle extremes and how can we improve their capability? How well do models simulate the characteristics (distribution, amount, intensity, frequency, duration, type) of precipitation – with particular emphasis on extremes of droughts and floods? How can the phenomena responsible for extremes be better simulated in models?

Drought Interest Group Open group; Formed in 2008 to: – Identify and leverage current drought research activities already underway within WCRP – Assess the missing links in drought research and coordinate drought research at an international level Currently over 40 DIG members. Consult with a much wider community: 2011 white paper on: Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

Climate reports Important climate monitoring product. Provides a more frequent update than the IPCC Assessment Reports.

Scientific inputs to IPCC syntheses

Conferences Africa Climate Conference Helping to set the priorities for climate research in Africa and putting climate knowledge into the hands of end-users The WCRP Conference for Latin America and the Caribbean, Developing, Linking, and Applying Climate Knowledge International Conference on Regional Climate - CORDEX 2013

The role of research is to: 1.Reduce the level and degree of uncertainty by improvements in: AccuracyWhat is going to happen? SaliencyWhy should I care? 2.Identify how the uncertain information can be used to inform decision-making. What can I do about it? DRR and Research