The Lombardia experience of Regional Foresight

2 Lombardia Socio-economic features Lombardia has:  Approximately 9 million inhabitants, (15.6% of the nation population), with a demographic profile that has 24% of the population under the age of 25 and 17. 4% over 65.  Unemployment rate: 3.8% (2002) compared to the national one of 9.5%.  Employment rate: 51,1% (female employment rate 39,9% and male employment rate 63%);  Gross Domestic Product: 247,7 billion Euro (2001);  Agriculture makes up 1,8% of the GDP, Industry 40%, Service 58,2%;  Approximately 740,000 firms.  The highest number of Universities and the highest expenditure in scientific research in Italy;  The total R&D spending in the region as % of GDP: 1,17%, of which public sector 0,31%, Government 0,12%, University 0,19% and private sector 0,86%.

3 Problem and Objectives Driving problem In which technology areas the manufacturing industry of Lombardia could become very competitive (excellent) at international scale? The identification of these areas was the main objective of the foresight exercise.

4 Expected outputs The assessment of the main families of emerging technologies (Biotechnologies, Advanced materials, ICT’s, Nanotechnologies, Energy technologies) in terms of their potential impact on the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry of Lombardia Expected impacts To provide the informative basis on which an Action Plan should be designed with the aim of allocating public resources to R&D and of involving the relevant scientific and industrial actors in cooperative networks.

5 The Foresight Exercise A “critical technology” method: “criticality” of a technology was evaluated in terms of its Attractiveness for the future competitiveness of Lombardia manufacturing industry and of the Feasibility of its development (from research to industrial exploitation) by means of the R&D and industrial resources and capabilities of Lombardia. A set of qualitative and quantitative indicators was derived from the notions of Attractiveness and Feasibility A panel of approximately 70 experts from the public research sector and from industrial firms evaluated the indicators. The information gathered from the experts was elaborated both in qualitative and quantitative terms, so providing a comprehensive view to the Attractiveness and Feasibility of a technology.

6 Outputs and their Impacts Outputs A Report, summarizing the main findings of the prospective analysis A set of recommendations regarding the criticality of the technologies. A commitment of the main research and industrial actors, involved in the foresight process, to cooperate in the development of the critical technologies.

7 Outputs/Expectations The achieved outputs were well in line with the expected outcomes, set of the beginning at the exercise. Impacts of the outputs The Report proposed the following hierarchy of the technology areas: Advanced materials (most relevant) ICT’s, Biotechnologies, Energy technologies, Nanotechnologies. The Regional Government and the National one agreed to combine financial resources to support R&D projects in a few technology families of these areas: Biotechnologies, ICT, Advanced Materials.

8 On-going RDTI policy Political framework  The Regional Government is now following a different approach to RDTI policy, focused on the “demand” side.  A study is on-going with the aim of identifying a few large “sistemyc” R&D projects that can enhance the performance and the quality of the services provided by the Regional Administration in these areas: Healthcare, Mobility, Environment, Cultural Heritage.