T E L U M Interactive Software for Integrated Land Use and Transportation Modeling

Introduction TELUM is a land use modeling software package that can be used for evaluating land use impacts of regional transportation improvement projects. TELUM forecasts future location of employment and households Developed under the federal TELUS grant as a standalone modeling software. TELUM features an integrated GIS tool. TELUM is an integrated interactive software package for evaluation of the land use impacts of regional transportation improvement projects, as well as changes in population and employment. The software utilizes sophisticated economic and land use models to produce long term forecasts of population and employment spatial patterns in a designated planning area. It has been developed as part of the TELUS grant and it is a standalone product. The GIS module embedded in TELUM allows users to view, print, and perform geographic analysis of zonal land use, demographic, and employment data entered by the user or forecasted by the model. Currently TELUM GIS module requires installation of ArcGIS software.

What Is a Land Use Model? A land use model is a quantitative method which . . . Forecasts employment and population demand for land in specific zones of a region; Calculates the amount of employment and population that will be located; Calculates the amount of land that will be used by the locating activities.

Understanding TELUM – Spatial Interaction Model We obtained regional forecasts of future growth of jobs… Our land use model will tell us where these jobs and households will locate…. We plan to build a light-rail line connecting zones B and D. This will impact the overall travel in our region. We would specifically like to analyze the impact on future location of households and jobs in our region, i.e. how the future land use will look. The new land use can then be used in a travel demand model as a basis for trip generation and trip distribution. In this example, the new locations of jobs and households will produce more travel on links connecting zones B, C, and D, including the new light-rail line. Say we have an area consisting of 4 analysis zones: A, B, C, and D. A B ... and households. Here is the highway network connecting the zones. In addition, as a result of the new transportation capacity and improved travel times, certain zones may became more attractive, causing re-location of existing jobs and households. We know the current location of jobs… D C … and households by zone.

Motivation Majority of MPOs neither uses Land Use Models for regional forecasting nor for providing input to travel models. This is due to the lack of trained in-house personnel with experience in land use planning*. TELUM is developed as intuitive, interactive software package with many user-friendly features. It is easy to understand, provides tools for easy data entry and analysis, and features Help System that provides instructions and is able to guide and advise users throughout their analysis. It is primarily developed for small and medium-sized MPOs. * Determination of the State of the Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting: Findings of the Surveys of Metropolitan Planning Organizations, April 7, 2006, Prepared for Committee B0090, TRB/National Research Council It has been reported that a majority of MPOs do not make use of Land Use Models for regional forecasting and for providing input to travel models, primarily due to their lack of trained staff and a general unfamiliarity with the technical processes involved. Our intent was to provide software which would help agencies to overcome these obstacles to better planning. So TELUM is developed as intuitive, interactive software package with many user-friendly features. It has easy to understand graphic interface and provides tools for easy data entry and analysis. Important part of the software is the Help System that provides instructions and is able to guide and advise users throughout the analysis. A combination of hotlinks to internal help files, with software wizards in a Knowledge Based Systems approach, leads the user through the many steps in model implementation.

Why using TELUM? TELUM enables planners to perform regional land use analysis by: Forecasting the employment and population that desire to locate in specific zones of a region. Calculating the amount of employment and population that will be allocated to each zone based on transportation accessibility and underlying socioeconomic factors. Calculating the amount of land needed for locating employment and residential activities.

Advantages of TELUM Inputs consist of US Census data and supplemental data commonly used by MPOs in regional planning process; User friendly interface makes it easy to navigate through data input, model development, and forecasting process; A combination of hotlinks to internal help files, with software wizards in a Knowledge Based Systems approach leads the user through the many steps in model implementation; Integrated GIS module allows mapping of the input data, calibration results, and forecast results. Inputs consist of generally readily available data from US Census and data used by MPOs in regional planning process. Self-calibrating module automates model calibration procedure, and provides analysis that can indicate if and where the problems exist with the dataset used in the model. User friendly interface makes it easy to navigate through model development and forecasting process. On-screen explanations and tips provide user both information about TELUM features and suggestions on improving the model. Integrated GIS module allows direct mapping of the input data, calibration results, and forecast results.

Transportation Policy Analysis TELUM provides planners with the ability to compare various transportation improvement scenarios: Planners can make changes in the transportation network between runs and observe the resulting changes in land use patterns; Planners can test impacts of different project pools on regional land use patterns by applying different sets of impedances for the same model year. TELUM outputs can be used as a starting point for trip generation, trip distribution, and mode-split.

Land Use Model Outputs – How can they help? Relevance and Use in Planning Employment Density (forecasted for each zone and employment category) Serves as a basis for estimating future payroll tax revenues, change of zoning/land use, and improvements of the transportation network to promote desired development scenario. Household Density (forecasted for each zone by household income category) Serves as basis for estimating future property taxes, change of zoning/land use and improvements of the transportation network to promote desired location of residencies throughout the region. Land Consumption (forecasted for each zone by household/employment category) Provides an estimate of intensity of land utilization by households and employment by category, indicating how land use will change as a result of location of population and jobs for different development scenarios. Density Gradient (measure of urban sprawl) Provides basis for measuring change in household density as one moves from the CBD to suburbs can help identify trends in long-range regional plans

TELUM’s Role in Travel Demand Forecasting Schematic description of the feedback loop between TELUM and a travel demand model. The feedback loop is represented by the bold arrow-lines.

TELUM Modeling Process Data Preparation Program Installation Model Calibration Model Verification Preliminary Forecasts Model Validation Forecasts and Policy Tests

TELUM Modeling Process Schema This slide shows a schematic overview of the modeling process performed in TELUM. It describes in a little bit more detail the process I summarized in the previous slide.

TELUM Software Modules IDEU – Basic information about the region necessary to organize data. DOPU – Data entry and data consistency checks. TIPU – Load and process travel impedance data. MCPU – Self-calibration of employment, household and land consumption forecasting models. MFCU – Performs forecasts for the baseline and user-defined policy scenarios.

Data Entry IDEU and DOPU modules provide a user friendly, interactive interface that helps the user define what kind of data is available for the analysis region, and subsequent data entry. Several data-checks are conducted along the way to ensure data consistency and data integrity. TELUM also provides tips for creating a dataset required for a successful development and execution of a land use model.

IDEU Report Summarizing the organization of regional socioeconomic data

DOPU Data Entry Spreadsheet

DOPU – Data Consistency Report Statistical analysis of the dataset provided in DOPU spreadsheet

DOPU – Map and Data Compatibility TELUM checks for the compatibility of the dataset and regional map.

Model Calibration – Report A summary of the model calibration report

Calibration Results – Statistical Analysis TELUM calibrates the back-end analytical model that is used to forecast future land use and location of households and employment. Calibration is done against the regional dataset entered by the user. In this slide we see another screen shot from TELUM, in which user is warned of problems with dataset as they relate to forecast quality (reliability). TELUM also provides detailed statistical analysis that can indicate if and where the problems exist with the dataset used in the model, or with the parameters calculated in the calibration process as they relate to the dataset and forecasting mathematical model. Here are the examples of detailed statistical analysis of calibrated model.

Forecasting – Data Check Having led the user through the tasks of data preparation and model calibration, the system performs an evaluation of the calibration results and a verification check of all the work to that point in the process. The system then organizes the files for the subsequent use in forecasting.

Forecasting Tracking input and output files and running the forecasting model

Forecasting – Results As forecasts are completed, the system provides various tabulated summaries of the forecast results. In addition, the system links to an ArcGIS software through MAPIT, providing additional graphical analysis and display of forecast results in the regional geography.

Forecast Results Forecast report summary tables

Forecast Results MAPIT generated maps of forecast growth and/or decline of employment and households by zone

Forecast Results MAPIT generated maps of forecast sprawl indices

Forecasting – Adding Constraints User can define and test different development scenarios using forecast constraints. Constrained Policy Forecast

Forecast Results – Comparing Scenarios MAPIT: mapped changes in forecast results between different scenarios Constrained Policy Forecast

Current Program Status TELUM software package was released in January 2006. It was recently implemented by the Pikes Peak Area COG in Fall 06 as part of their new regional transportation plan. Missoula Office of Planning and Grants and Pueblo Area Council of Governments are currently testing TELUM. Used by Des Moines (IA) and Little Rock (AR) MPOs. Software, User Manual, and Tutorial can be downloaded from TELUS website: http://www.telus-national.org/products/telum.htm Software is free of charge.

Contact Dr. Lazar N. Spasovic Director, TELUS Project Tiernan Hall, Suite 287 New Jersey Institute of Technology University Heights Newark, NJ 07102 E-mail: spasovic@njit.edu Phone: (973) 596-6420 www.telus-national.org http://www.transportation.njit.edu Thank you!